Download App

[Caixin Futures: Divergent Trends in Precious Metals and Non-ferrous Metals] ⑴ Gold is currently in a volatile rebound phase. News suggests a high probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the FOMC meeting early Thursday morning. ⑵ The overall strength of the metals sector led to silver stabilizing first, with technically, the price forming the first support level below 900 yuan. ⑶ Profit-taking by short sellers often leads to increased volatility and triggers reversals. Short sellers are likely to remain on the sidelines before the FOMC meeting. ⑷ If a rebound occurs, it is likely just a technical adjustment, and there is still a possibility of a pullback forming a "double bottom". ⑸ Based on Fibonacci retracement calculations, the support range for the AU2512 contract has shifted down to 894-904 yuan, with a short-term trading range of 894-935 yuan. ⑹ Operationally, it is recommended to reduce leverage, strictly control risk, and adopt a defensive strategy. ⑺ On the macro front, both overall and core inflation indicators in the US in September were lower than expected, while the job market showed signs of recovery in October. ⑻ Domestic and international copper mine disturbances continue, with the copper concentrate import index remaining negative, indicating a tight supply expectation. (9) The traditional peak demand season did not arrive as expected, and high copper prices dampened downstream purchasing enthusiasm. (10) The market is generally focused on the Fed's interest rate decision, which is expected to implement the second rate cut this year. Coupled with escalating geopolitical tensions, this has boosted risk aversion. (11) LME low inventories have not improved, and domestic social inventories have decreased slightly but remain at historically high levels for the same period, opening export windows. (12) Demand is relatively stable, and considering the optimistic macroeconomic sentiment, Shanghai zinc prices may continue to stabilize. (13) Alumina prices rose at the end of the day, possibly due to environmental maintenance at a company in North China, but the impact is expected to be limited. (14) Overall, the supply and demand of alumina remains relatively loose, and the pressure of oversupply has not been effectively alleviated. The rebound is weak given the high inventory levels. (15) The overall macroeconomic environment is favorable, with the market optimistic about reaching a trade agreement. A positive domestic macroeconomic atmosphere supports market confidence. (16) Century Aluminum's electrolytic aluminum plant in Iceland has ceased production, leading to expectations of tighter overseas supply. Domestic supply is stable but suppressed by high aluminum prices. 14. Weak downstream demand has delayed destocking, weakening short-term support. 15. Scrap aluminum supply remains tight, keeping prices firm; we expect Shanghai aluminum and foundry aluminum to remain volatile at high levels. 16. Lithium carbonate futures remain strong, supported by robust downstream demand and continued production increases and destocking. 20. However, in the long term, the price increase is more of a temporary supply-demand mismatch; high supply pressure remains, and we should not be overly optimistic about the upside potential of the market.