Download App

[Caixin Futures: Edible Oils Rally, Hogs and Eggs Boosted by Policy and Stockpiling Factors] ⑴ Palm Oil: Today, palm oil and soybean oil futures rose by over 1%, while rapeseed oil rose by over 2%. On the news front, Indonesia's plan to establish a new state-owned export agency to control exports of bulk commodities such as palm oil has raised concerns about price controls; EU rapeseed yields have been revised downwards due to frost and drought, with an estimated reduction of 400,000-500,000 tons, coupled with support from crude oil prices, firm Canadian rapeseed prices, and disruptions from Russian rapeseed imports, all contributing to the rise in edible oil prices. Domestic edible oil inventories are at a neutral to slightly high level, with soybean and rapeseed oil inventories gradually accumulating, limiting the upside potential. In the short term, edible oils may maintain a volatile trend with increased fluctuations; cautious risk management is recommended. In the medium to long term, prices are expected to trend upwards, and long positions can be established opportunistically within the 60-day moving average range. In the spot market, Guangdong 24-degree palm oil fell by 20 yuan to 9410 yuan, soybean oil rose by 40 yuan to 8760 yuan, and Jiangsu genetically modified rapeseed oil rose by 80 yuan to 10020 yuan. (2) Soybean Meal: Domestic soybean crushing volume in April was lower than expected, and with a bumper harvest in South America, there was no upward drive for US soybean futures in the short term. Domestically, the pressure from imported soybeans arriving at ports continued to ease, oil mill operating rates rebounded, and soybean meal inventories continued to accumulate. On the demand side, hog farming suffered deep losses, and feed companies mainly replenished their stocks to meet immediate needs, lacking speculative stockpiling. The supply-demand imbalance remained unchanged, and futures and spot prices continued their weak trend. The recommended strategy is to sell on rallies. For single-sided trading, it is suggested to sell on rallies; for arbitrage, reverse arbitrage can be entered; for options, out-of-the-money call options can be sold. (3) Corn: Recently, the main corn futures contract has been fluctuating at high levels, lacking a clear direction. From a fundamental perspective, with the new wheat harvest approaching, some grain traders are clearing their inventories, and corn shipments have increased recently. However, downstream demand is weak, and the overall market is sluggish. Given the supply-demand imbalance, the fundamentals are bearish. Coupled with recent rumors of rice auctions, corn futures and spot prices have further weakened. Attention should be paid to the subsequent rice auction situation. For unilateral trading, shorting on rallies is recommended, but the potential upside is expected to be limited; for arbitrage, a wait-and-see approach is advised. (4) Live Pigs: On May 19, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a video conference to deploy comprehensive regulation of live pig production capacity, further emphasizing that "all localities must raise their political awareness, strictly implement capacity reduction measures, and promote a reasonable recovery in live pig prices," and that "seven working groups will be dispatched to major live pig producing provinces to promote the implementation of various measures." This led to short selling and a rise in prices in the afternoon. It is recommended to closely monitor the specific implementation path of the adjusted normal stock level of 37.5 million heads. (5) Eggs: The egg market has been relatively strong recently, showing a strong performance despite the off-season. Driving factors include: inventory at all stages of the market has dropped to a historical low of about one day, with both production and sales supply tight; insufficient replenishment of newly laying hens, and farmers' reluctance to sell due to bullish expectations; downstream traders' rigid restocking after the holiday, and the early start of Dragon Boat Festival stocking.