Crude oil trading alert: Geopolitical tensions remain volatile, and oil prices continue to fluctuate within a narrow range.
2026-06-09 09:39:05
International oil prices continued their downward trend in Asian trading on Tuesday, with WTI crude oil prices remaining under pressure after falling more than 1% in the previous session, trading around $90.80. Market risk appetite improved somewhat, mainly due to Iran and Israel agreeing to suspend mutual military operations, which brought signs of easing the previously escalating tensions in the Middle East.
Following US President Trump's call for a cessation of hostilities, both Iran and Israel signaled temporary restraint, raising market expectations for potential peace talks. This shift directly alleviated investor concerns about disruptions to Middle Eastern oil supplies, prompting some safe-haven funds that had previously flowed into the energy market to take profits.
However, the current situation is still far from truly stable. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that the military operation against Iran and its allies "is not over," but emphasized that the strength of these organizations has been significantly weakened. Meanwhile, the Iranian military confirmed that it has ceased military strikes against Israel, but the Iranian Central Military Command also warned that if Israel continues its attacks in southern Lebanon and other regions, Iran will take even stronger countermeasures.
In fact, this round of conflict had already posed a direct threat to regional energy facilities. Israel had previously attacked a petrochemical facility in southwestern Iran, accusing it of involvement in ballistic missile production. The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps subsequently retaliated against related industrial facilities in the Haifa region of Israel. These attacks on energy and industrial facilities by both sides raised significant market concerns about supply chain security.
Market analysts believe that while the risk of attacks on energy infrastructure in the Middle East has temporarily decreased, it has not been completely eliminated. Especially given the ongoing tensions in Lebanon, any new military action could potentially reignite market risk premiums. From a global energy supply perspective, the Strait of Hormuz remains one of the most critical risks for the market. Market estimates indicate that the Strait of Hormuz handles approximately 20% of global seaborne crude oil transport and is also a vital passage for liquefied natural gas and refined petroleum products. Although the conflict has temporarily subsided, shipping activities through the strait remain severely restricted, significantly reducing the efficiency of crude oil, natural gas, and refined petroleum product exports.
Analysts point out that the current decline in oil prices reflects more of a temporary release of geopolitical risk premiums than a complete disappearance of supply risks. As shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has not yet returned to normal, the global energy market still faces a potential supply gap. If shipping disruptions continue for an extended period, energy markets in Asia, Europe, and North America could all be affected to varying degrees.
Meanwhile, the US government continues to actively promote diplomatic negotiations. Trump stated that he hopes the ongoing talks between Iran and the US will further de-escalate regional tensions and ultimately help stabilize international energy markets. However, the market generally believes that the situation in the Middle East is highly complex, and the coming weeks will remain a crucial window for determining crude oil price trends.
From a fund flow perspective, some speculative funds have begun to reduce their bets on extreme supply risks, but institutional investors as a whole remain cautious. Given the current limited global crude oil inventory levels, international oil prices could quickly regain upward momentum should the regional situation deteriorate again.
From a daily chart perspective, WTI crude oil previously surged due to the Middle East situation and is currently consolidating at higher levels. Although prices have retreated somewhat from recent highs, they remain within a medium-term uptrend. The short-term moving average system continues its bullish alignment, indicating that the overall market trend has not fundamentally changed. The MACD indicator remains above the zero line, but the red momentum bars are shortening, suggesting weakening upward momentum. The RSI indicator has retreated from overbought territory, indicating a short-term technical correction is needed. Key support levels to watch are the $88.00 and $85.50 areas, while key resistance levels are around $91.50 and $95.00.
The 4-hour chart shows that oil prices have entered a consolidation phase after a continuous pullback. The MACD indicator has formed a death cross, indicating a strengthening of short-term bearish momentum. The RSI indicator has fallen back to near the neutral zone, suggesting a more cautious market sentiment. If prices can regain a foothold above $92.00, they may retest the $93.50 to $95.00 resistance zone; however, if they break below the $88.00 support, a further decline to around $85.50 to seek support cannot be ruled out. Overall, short-term price movements will continue to be dominated by news regarding the Middle East situation, with the technical picture showing a high-level consolidation pattern.
Editor's Summary : Easing geopolitical tensions have signaled a de-escalation in the market, leading to a temporary pullback in international oil prices. However, risks in the Middle East have not been completely eliminated, and the issue of restricted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains, jeopardizing the global energy supply chain. From a medium- to long-term perspective, the geopolitical risk premium may gradually decline as diplomatic negotiations progress, but if energy transport remains disrupted or regional conflicts escalate again, international oil prices could potentially rebound. The market focus will be on the recovery of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, subsequent military developments between Iran and Israel, and changes in energy demand from major global economies. For investors, the current market presents both high volatility risks and trading opportunities arising from supply constraints.
Following US President Trump's call for a cessation of hostilities, both Iran and Israel signaled temporary restraint, raising market expectations for potential peace talks. This shift directly alleviated investor concerns about disruptions to Middle Eastern oil supplies, prompting some safe-haven funds that had previously flowed into the energy market to take profits.
However, the current situation is still far from truly stable. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that the military operation against Iran and its allies "is not over," but emphasized that the strength of these organizations has been significantly weakened. Meanwhile, the Iranian military confirmed that it has ceased military strikes against Israel, but the Iranian Central Military Command also warned that if Israel continues its attacks in southern Lebanon and other regions, Iran will take even stronger countermeasures.
In fact, this round of conflict had already posed a direct threat to regional energy facilities. Israel had previously attacked a petrochemical facility in southwestern Iran, accusing it of involvement in ballistic missile production. The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps subsequently retaliated against related industrial facilities in the Haifa region of Israel. These attacks on energy and industrial facilities by both sides raised significant market concerns about supply chain security.
Market analysts believe that while the risk of attacks on energy infrastructure in the Middle East has temporarily decreased, it has not been completely eliminated. Especially given the ongoing tensions in Lebanon, any new military action could potentially reignite market risk premiums. From a global energy supply perspective, the Strait of Hormuz remains one of the most critical risks for the market. Market estimates indicate that the Strait of Hormuz handles approximately 20% of global seaborne crude oil transport and is also a vital passage for liquefied natural gas and refined petroleum products. Although the conflict has temporarily subsided, shipping activities through the strait remain severely restricted, significantly reducing the efficiency of crude oil, natural gas, and refined petroleum product exports.
Analysts point out that the current decline in oil prices reflects more of a temporary release of geopolitical risk premiums than a complete disappearance of supply risks. As shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has not yet returned to normal, the global energy market still faces a potential supply gap. If shipping disruptions continue for an extended period, energy markets in Asia, Europe, and North America could all be affected to varying degrees.
Meanwhile, the US government continues to actively promote diplomatic negotiations. Trump stated that he hopes the ongoing talks between Iran and the US will further de-escalate regional tensions and ultimately help stabilize international energy markets. However, the market generally believes that the situation in the Middle East is highly complex, and the coming weeks will remain a crucial window for determining crude oil price trends.
From a fund flow perspective, some speculative funds have begun to reduce their bets on extreme supply risks, but institutional investors as a whole remain cautious. Given the current limited global crude oil inventory levels, international oil prices could quickly regain upward momentum should the regional situation deteriorate again.
From a daily chart perspective, WTI crude oil previously surged due to the Middle East situation and is currently consolidating at higher levels. Although prices have retreated somewhat from recent highs, they remain within a medium-term uptrend. The short-term moving average system continues its bullish alignment, indicating that the overall market trend has not fundamentally changed. The MACD indicator remains above the zero line, but the red momentum bars are shortening, suggesting weakening upward momentum. The RSI indicator has retreated from overbought territory, indicating a short-term technical correction is needed. Key support levels to watch are the $88.00 and $85.50 areas, while key resistance levels are around $91.50 and $95.00.
The 4-hour chart shows that oil prices have entered a consolidation phase after a continuous pullback. The MACD indicator has formed a death cross, indicating a strengthening of short-term bearish momentum. The RSI indicator has fallen back to near the neutral zone, suggesting a more cautious market sentiment. If prices can regain a foothold above $92.00, they may retest the $93.50 to $95.00 resistance zone; however, if they break below the $88.00 support, a further decline to around $85.50 to seek support cannot be ruled out. Overall, short-term price movements will continue to be dominated by news regarding the Middle East situation, with the technical picture showing a high-level consolidation pattern.
Editor's Summary : Easing geopolitical tensions have signaled a de-escalation in the market, leading to a temporary pullback in international oil prices. However, risks in the Middle East have not been completely eliminated, and the issue of restricted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains, jeopardizing the global energy supply chain. From a medium- to long-term perspective, the geopolitical risk premium may gradually decline as diplomatic negotiations progress, but if energy transport remains disrupted or regional conflicts escalate again, international oil prices could potentially rebound. The market focus will be on the recovery of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, subsequent military developments between Iran and Israel, and changes in energy demand from major global economies. For investors, the current market presents both high volatility risks and trading opportunities arising from supply constraints.
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
