The ongoing geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, causing a sharp rise in aviation fuel prices and placing immense cost pressure on the global aviation industry. British Airways executives have publicly warned that if fuel prices do not fall, airfares will face another round of increases, with long-haul routes and premium cabins being particularly hard hit. Meanwhile, many overseas airlines are cutting flights, highlighting a growing survival crisis for the industry.

With fuel prices soaring, a ticket price increase is inevitable.

British Airways CEO Sean Doyle has made it clear that fuel costs are deeply tied to ticket prices, and that fuel price increases will inevitably be passed on to end-user ticket prices—a reality the industry cannot avoid.

Since the outbreak of the Middle East conflict in February this year, aviation kerosene prices have been soaring. As the core transportation route for European aviation kerosene, the Strait of Hormuz supplies about 40% of Europe's aviation kerosene. Although the parties involved have been pushing for ceasefire negotiations, shipping in the strait has not yet returned to normal, which continues to exacerbate the tight fuel supply situation.



Doyle stated that British Airways initiated its first round of fare adjustments last month to absorb rising fuel costs, with business class fares being the most significantly affected. Based on the current situation, if fuel prices continue to rise, the company will implement another round of price increases . Data shows that the current price of aviation kerosene has reached $1710 per ton, compared to $742 per ton last year, representing an increase of over 130%. High fuel costs have become the heaviest operating burden for airlines.

Significant differences in flight routes have led to the postponement of the resumption of many international flights.

The impact of fare adjustments varies significantly across different routes, with long-haul routes facing far greater pressure than short-haul routes. Doyle analyzed that British Airways, with its core business on long-haul international routes and a high proportion of business travelers and premium cabin passengers, will pass on more fuel costs to fares compared to airlines focusing on short-haul leisure routes.

British Airways had previously suspended all flights to the Gulf region due to the situation in the Middle East. The company plans to gradually resume routes in the region over the next few months, but the resumption of the popular Dubai route has been significantly delayed, expected to be in October or even later. Doyle said that Dubai has always been a core winter destination for British Airways, and this route will eventually return to normal, but the entire recovery process may take one to two years.

The entire industry is facing increasing pressure, with many airlines reducing flights and risks rising sharply.

The ongoing fuel crisis has evolved into a systemic problem for the entire aviation industry. In recent months, many airlines worldwide have faced operational difficulties, with widespread fare increases and large-scale flight reductions becoming the norm. In March, Air New Zealand announced the cancellation of 1,100 flights by early May; Scandinavian Airlines also announced plans to cut 1,000 flights next month, with both airlines primarily reducing domestic flights.

Ryanair's finance chief also warned last month that with fuel costs continuing to soar, many of its peers will face the risk of bankruptcy in the second half of this year, and the overall operating situation of the industry is not optimistic.

In summary , as long as the geopolitical stalemate in the Middle East remains unresolved, the current situation of tight aviation fuel supply and high prices will be difficult to reverse. Rising airfares and flight reductions will become the norm, and the global aviation industry will undergo a prolonged period of difficult adjustment under the pressure of high costs.