The British pound has rebounded sharply against the US dollar; however, caution is advised against a potential pullback.
2026-06-09 13:45:17
The pound traded in a narrow range against the dollar in Asian trading on Tuesday, currently around 1.3330, extending its rebound from a three-week low near 1.3300 the previous day. The dollar weakened due to easing tensions in the Middle East, providing some support for the pound, but the overall market remained cautious.
The Iranian military announced on Monday that it had ended its attacks on Israel, while warning of retaliation should Israel take further military action against Lebanon. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu confirmed a pause in fighting but stated that he would respond forcefully to any future attacks. The temporary easing of geopolitical tensions reduced safe-haven buying of the US dollar, thus supporting a short-term rebound in the pound against the dollar.
However, significant differences remain between the US and Iran on nuclear issues and the security of the Strait of Hormuz, limiting market optimism. Meanwhile, persistent concerns about US inflation, with the market widely expecting a greater than 70% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike before the end of the year, support the dollar and limit further gains in the pound. Furthermore, the prospect of a mass resignation of junior cabinet ministers by British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has created political instability, increasing market caution towards the pound. In this environment, investors should avoid chasing the rally and are advised to wait for strong market confirmation of short-term stabilization in the pound.
In the short term, the main focus for the GBP/USD exchange rate is on US CPI data and UK monthly GDP data. These indicators will directly impact the short-term movements of both the dollar and the pound. Technically, the exchange rate is consolidating within the 1.3300-1.3400 range, and short-term volatility may still increase.
The daily chart shows that the GBP/USD pair has recently entered a consolidation phase at higher levels, with the price fluctuating around the medium-term moving average. The MACD indicator is near the zero line, and the alternating red and green bars indicate a balance between bullish and bearish forces. The RSI indicator is hovering around 55, suggesting a wait-and-see attitude in the market. Key resistance levels to watch are 1.3375, 1.3400, and 1.3450, while key support levels are 1.3300, 1.3275, and 1.3220.
The 4-hour chart shows the exchange rate consolidating between 1.3300 and 1.3375. The MACD indicator's red bars are contracting, indicating a slight decrease in short-term bullish momentum. The RSI has fallen to a neutral level, suggesting increasing caution. A break above the 1.3375 resistance level could lead to further tests of 1.3400 and 1.3450; a break below the 1.3300 support level could result in a pullback to the 1.3275 and 1.3220 areas.
Editor's Summary : The British pound is expected to trade with a cautious bias against the US dollar in the short term. Easing tensions in the Middle East and a weaker dollar are providing support for the pound, but expectations of a Fed rate hike, domestic instability in the UK, and the US-Iran dispute are limiting further gains. Investors should pay attention to US CPI and UK GDP data. The exchange rate is expected to fluctuate between 1.3300 and 1.3375 in the short term, with periodic fluctuations depending on key data and political events.
The Iranian military announced on Monday that it had ended its attacks on Israel, while warning of retaliation should Israel take further military action against Lebanon. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu confirmed a pause in fighting but stated that he would respond forcefully to any future attacks. The temporary easing of geopolitical tensions reduced safe-haven buying of the US dollar, thus supporting a short-term rebound in the pound against the dollar.
However, significant differences remain between the US and Iran on nuclear issues and the security of the Strait of Hormuz, limiting market optimism. Meanwhile, persistent concerns about US inflation, with the market widely expecting a greater than 70% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike before the end of the year, support the dollar and limit further gains in the pound. Furthermore, the prospect of a mass resignation of junior cabinet ministers by British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has created political instability, increasing market caution towards the pound. In this environment, investors should avoid chasing the rally and are advised to wait for strong market confirmation of short-term stabilization in the pound.
In the short term, the main focus for the GBP/USD exchange rate is on US CPI data and UK monthly GDP data. These indicators will directly impact the short-term movements of both the dollar and the pound. Technically, the exchange rate is consolidating within the 1.3300-1.3400 range, and short-term volatility may still increase.
The daily chart shows that the GBP/USD pair has recently entered a consolidation phase at higher levels, with the price fluctuating around the medium-term moving average. The MACD indicator is near the zero line, and the alternating red and green bars indicate a balance between bullish and bearish forces. The RSI indicator is hovering around 55, suggesting a wait-and-see attitude in the market. Key resistance levels to watch are 1.3375, 1.3400, and 1.3450, while key support levels are 1.3300, 1.3275, and 1.3220.
The 4-hour chart shows the exchange rate consolidating between 1.3300 and 1.3375. The MACD indicator's red bars are contracting, indicating a slight decrease in short-term bullish momentum. The RSI has fallen to a neutral level, suggesting increasing caution. A break above the 1.3375 resistance level could lead to further tests of 1.3400 and 1.3450; a break below the 1.3300 support level could result in a pullback to the 1.3275 and 1.3220 areas.
Editor's Summary : The British pound is expected to trade with a cautious bias against the US dollar in the short term. Easing tensions in the Middle East and a weaker dollar are providing support for the pound, but expectations of a Fed rate hike, domestic instability in the UK, and the US-Iran dispute are limiting further gains. Investors should pay attention to US CPI and UK GDP data. The exchange rate is expected to fluctuate between 1.3300 and 1.3375 in the short term, with periodic fluctuations depending on key data and political events.
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- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
