With the Middle East conflict entering its final three-month countdown, gold presents a potential investment opportunity.
2026-06-09 18:05:06
On Tuesday (June 9), during the Asian and European sessions, international gold prices remained weak and volatile, with spot gold currently trading around 4325.
The recent retaliatory clashes between Israel and Iran have escalated tensions in the Middle East, significantly increasing Iran's bargaining power at the US-Iran negotiating table.
US President Donald Trump said on the 9th that negotiations between the United States and Iran have entered the "final stage" and that an agreement will be reached "within two to three days." Speaking to reporters at John F. Kennedy International Airport in New York on the 9th, Trump said that Israel and Iran had previously "caught up" but have now "agreed to a ceasefire." "We are in the final stage and will reach a very, very good agreement."
When asked how long the negotiations would take, Trump replied, "Two to three days." From the evening of the 7th to the 8th local time, Iran and Israel engaged in the largest exchange of fire since the US, Israel and Iran announced a ceasefire in early April. Later on the 8th, both Iran and Israel announced a cessation of attacks on each other.
Trump has repeatedly stated recently that a deal with Iran is imminent, but no agreement has been reached so far.
More than three months after the US and Israel launched their joint attack on Iran, regional geopolitical stability has continued to deteriorate, and the risk of a renewed direct confrontation between the US and Iran has increased significantly.
This round of escalation of the conflict also highlights three major trends: Trump's actual binding force on Israel is far weaker than his public statements, and Iran is taking the opportunity to continuously amplify the differences between the US and Israel.
Despite the threat of attacks on its own soil, Iran insists on deeply linking the US-Iran rivalry with the conflicts involving Lebanon, Israel, and Hezbollah.
The Iran nuclear deal that Trump is hoping for is unlikely to be implemented in the short term. Iran believes that the upcoming US election and domestic inflationary pressures make it unwilling to take risks and is trying to gain more benefits in the negotiations.
Following the conflict, both Israel and Iran announced a temporary ceasefire and warned that any violation would be met with retaliation, but the tense atmosphere in the region has not truly dissipated.
Before the conflict broke out, Trump had declared that he had the final say in Middle Eastern affairs and had publicly and harshly criticized Netanyahu for acting recklessly.
After Iran launched the first missile attack, Trump explicitly opposed Israel retaliating, but Netanyahu still chose to respond forcefully.
In the aftermath, Trump denied that Israel had disobeyed orders, while simultaneously signaling to the outside world that an agreement would be finalized soon and that the Strait of Hormuz would resume navigation.
Numerous details suggest that Israel's military operation received limited tacit approval from the United States.
The U.S. military not only coordinated with the Israeli military throughout the entire process, but also assisted in intercepting Iranian missiles aimed at Israel.
Trump's public intervention was largely driven by political considerations, aiming to distance himself from Israel and ease tensions with Iran.
Iran launched this round of strikes with clear strategic considerations, marking its first retaliation against Israeli territory in response to Israel's attack on Lebanon.
Iran demands that the US combine the US-Iran ceasefire and the Lebanon-Israel ceasefire negotiations, refusing to split the issues apart;
On the other hand, it is an opportunity to test the bottom line of the United States and find out the extent of its support for Israel. The more obvious the differences between the United States and Israel, the more prominent Iran's negotiating advantage will be.
With this round of military operations, Iran has further raised its negotiating stance, insisting on a parallel approach of military defense and diplomatic negotiations, and refusing to back down on either the battlefield or the negotiating table.
Iran's energy exports have been hampered by the US maritime blockade, and the country is facing high inflation and a difficult economic situation.
Against this backdrop, Iran's negotiations with the United States focused on two core demands: first, to lift sanctions and unfreeze overseas oil assets to alleviate domestic liquidity pressures; and second, to restrain Israel's military operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon, relying on Hezbollah to form a strategic deterrent.
The United States is currently in the midterm election cycle. Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has pushed up international oil prices, and the disruption of the global chemical supply chain has severely impacted the US economy and put pressure on Trump's election campaign. This has made Trump eager to reach an agreement and mitigate risks.
However, his explicit refusal to unfreeze Iranian assets or lift sanctions ahead of schedule has become the core sticking point for the US-Iran peace talks.
At the same time, both the leaders of the United States and Israel were caught up in domestic political pressures.
With the election looming and the ruling coalition's future uncertain, Netanyahu's past military actions have failed to deliver on expectations, damaging his personal political credibility and making him likely to lose the October election. To solidify his support among the right wing, he is taking increasingly tough and risky actions, balancing between relying on the United States for security and deliberately "disobeying" orders to break the deadlock, and even hoping for a breakdown in peace talks and a renewed war.
Trump and Netanyahu are well aware of each other's weaknesses and potential risks, and they both use each other and check each other.
Since the US and Israel launched a joint attack on Iran in February of this year, strategic differences between the two sides have continued to widen, and Trump has consistently wavered between war and peace.
In summary, the deep-seated contradictions among the US, Israel, and Iran have not been resolved, and geopolitical risks in the Middle East remain high, with repeated instability becoming the norm.
Amid geopolitical conflicts, deadlocked negotiations, and great power rivalry, risk aversion in global markets remains strong.
However, the final deadline is basically set within the next three months. On the one hand, there is Iran's domestic economy and oil storage issues, and on the other hand, there are the US midterm elections and the Israeli general election. Any one of these could bring the war to a close.
Currently, countries have crude oil reserves of around 3-6 months. Based on a pessimistic 3-month forecast, this means that if the US-Iran issue is resolved within 3 months, oil prices will be unlikely to continue to rise significantly, and gold will have a window of opportunity for investment. Traders continue to monitor gold price movements, and if negative news fails to cause a price drop, gold prices may reverse course.
Technically, spot gold remains in a downward channel and is currently in a favorable rebound range. However, due to deteriorating global risk appetite and the lack of substantial progress in the US-Iran conflict, there has been no significant rebound during the Asian session.
(Spot gold daily chart, source: FX678)
At 17:57 Beijing time, spot gold was trading at $4,331 per ounce.
The recent retaliatory clashes between Israel and Iran have escalated tensions in the Middle East, significantly increasing Iran's bargaining power at the US-Iran negotiating table.
US President Donald Trump said on the 9th that negotiations between the United States and Iran have entered the "final stage" and that an agreement will be reached "within two to three days." Speaking to reporters at John F. Kennedy International Airport in New York on the 9th, Trump said that Israel and Iran had previously "caught up" but have now "agreed to a ceasefire." "We are in the final stage and will reach a very, very good agreement."
When asked how long the negotiations would take, Trump replied, "Two to three days." From the evening of the 7th to the 8th local time, Iran and Israel engaged in the largest exchange of fire since the US, Israel and Iran announced a ceasefire in early April. Later on the 8th, both Iran and Israel announced a cessation of attacks on each other.
Trump has repeatedly stated recently that a deal with Iran is imminent, but no agreement has been reached so far.
The Middle East alliance system is currently fractured, and the temporary ceasefire agreement is practically meaningless.
More than three months after the US and Israel launched their joint attack on Iran, regional geopolitical stability has continued to deteriorate, and the risk of a renewed direct confrontation between the US and Iran has increased significantly.
This round of escalation of the conflict also highlights three major trends: Trump's actual binding force on Israel is far weaker than his public statements, and Iran is taking the opportunity to continuously amplify the differences between the US and Israel.
Despite the threat of attacks on its own soil, Iran insists on deeply linking the US-Iran rivalry with the conflicts involving Lebanon, Israel, and Hezbollah.
The Iran nuclear deal that Trump is hoping for is unlikely to be implemented in the short term. Iran believes that the upcoming US election and domestic inflationary pressures make it unwilling to take risks and is trying to gain more benefits in the negotiations.
Following the conflict, both Israel and Iran announced a temporary ceasefire and warned that any violation would be met with retaliation, but the tense atmosphere in the region has not truly dissipated.
Differences between the US and Israel are evident, and the US attitude reveals hidden motives.
Before the conflict broke out, Trump had declared that he had the final say in Middle Eastern affairs and had publicly and harshly criticized Netanyahu for acting recklessly.
After Iran launched the first missile attack, Trump explicitly opposed Israel retaliating, but Netanyahu still chose to respond forcefully.
In the aftermath, Trump denied that Israel had disobeyed orders, while simultaneously signaling to the outside world that an agreement would be finalized soon and that the Strait of Hormuz would resume navigation.
Numerous details suggest that Israel's military operation received limited tacit approval from the United States.
The U.S. military not only coordinated with the Israeli military throughout the entire process, but also assisted in intercepting Iranian missiles aimed at Israel.
Trump's public intervention was largely driven by political considerations, aiming to distance himself from Israel and ease tensions with Iran.
Iran is proactively positioning itself to advance its strategic demands on two fronts.
Iran launched this round of strikes with clear strategic considerations, marking its first retaliation against Israeli territory in response to Israel's attack on Lebanon.
Iran demands that the US combine the US-Iran ceasefire and the Lebanon-Israel ceasefire negotiations, refusing to split the issues apart;
On the other hand, it is an opportunity to test the bottom line of the United States and find out the extent of its support for Israel. The more obvious the differences between the United States and Israel, the more prominent Iran's negotiating advantage will be.
With this round of military operations, Iran has further raised its negotiating stance, insisting on a parallel approach of military defense and diplomatic negotiations, and refusing to back down on either the battlefield or the negotiating table.
Iran's energy exports have been hampered by the US maritime blockade, and the country is facing high inflation and a difficult economic situation.
Against this backdrop, Iran's negotiations with the United States focused on two core demands: first, to lift sanctions and unfreeze overseas oil assets to alleviate domestic liquidity pressures; and second, to restrain Israel's military operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon, relying on Hezbollah to form a strategic deterrent.
With each party having its own concerns, the peace talks have reached a deep stalemate.
The United States is currently in the midterm election cycle. Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has pushed up international oil prices, and the disruption of the global chemical supply chain has severely impacted the US economy and put pressure on Trump's election campaign. This has made Trump eager to reach an agreement and mitigate risks.
However, his explicit refusal to unfreeze Iranian assets or lift sanctions ahead of schedule has become the core sticking point for the US-Iran peace talks.
At the same time, both the leaders of the United States and Israel were caught up in domestic political pressures.
With the election looming and the ruling coalition's future uncertain, Netanyahu's past military actions have failed to deliver on expectations, damaging his personal political credibility and making him likely to lose the October election. To solidify his support among the right wing, he is taking increasingly tough and risky actions, balancing between relying on the United States for security and deliberately "disobeying" orders to break the deadlock, and even hoping for a breakdown in peace talks and a renewed war.
Trump and Netanyahu are well aware of each other's weaknesses and potential risks, and they both use each other and check each other.
Since the US and Israel launched a joint attack on Iran in February of this year, strategic differences between the two sides have continued to widen, and Trump has consistently wavered between war and peace.
Summary and Technical Analysis:
In summary, the deep-seated contradictions among the US, Israel, and Iran have not been resolved, and geopolitical risks in the Middle East remain high, with repeated instability becoming the norm.
Amid geopolitical conflicts, deadlocked negotiations, and great power rivalry, risk aversion in global markets remains strong.
However, the final deadline is basically set within the next three months. On the one hand, there is Iran's domestic economy and oil storage issues, and on the other hand, there are the US midterm elections and the Israeli general election. Any one of these could bring the war to a close.
Currently, countries have crude oil reserves of around 3-6 months. Based on a pessimistic 3-month forecast, this means that if the US-Iran issue is resolved within 3 months, oil prices will be unlikely to continue to rise significantly, and gold will have a window of opportunity for investment. Traders continue to monitor gold price movements, and if negative news fails to cause a price drop, gold prices may reverse course.
Technically, spot gold remains in a downward channel and is currently in a favorable rebound range. However, due to deteriorating global risk appetite and the lack of substantial progress in the US-Iran conflict, there has been no significant rebound during the Asian session.
(Spot gold daily chart, source: FX678)
At 17:57 Beijing time, spot gold was trading at $4,331 per ounce.
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- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
