The US dollar continues to consolidate at a low level, GBP/JPY maintains a bullish pattern, and pays attention to the breakthrough opportunity of 199 mark
2025-07-02 15:11:28
GBP/JPY rose to around 197.50 in early trading on Wednesday, maintaining its recent strong trend. The core factor supporting the strength of the exchange rate is the continued weakening of the Japanese yen. The safe-haven property of the Japanese yen has been suppressed by the uncertainty of the US trade policy towards Japan recently, leading to capital outflow.
US President Trump once again expressed his stance on Japan's trade, saying that "if Japan does not expand its purchases of US products, the US may impose high tariffs of 30% to 35% on Japanese imports", which is much higher than the 24% level announced on April 2. This statement triggered a new round of selling pressure on Japanese yen assets in the market.
GBP/JPY is currently trading above the key 100-day exponential moving average (EMA), which is at 193.85, a medium-term bullish defense level. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) on the daily chart is close to 58.00, indicating a solid upward momentum and no overbought risk.
On the upside: the first resistance is in the range of 198.90 to 199.00, which corresponds to the upper track of the Bollinger Band and the psychological barrier of integers; if it breaks through 199.00, the target will be the 200.00 mark, and then up to 200.75 (the high point on May 28), which is an important resistance area this year.
On the downside: the initial support is at 196.28 (July 1 low); if it falls below 196.28, the next support is at 194.18 (lower Bollinger band) and 193.85 (100-day EMA). If 193.85 is lost, it may open up a deeper correction space, with the target pointing to the 192.30 area.
Editor's comments:
The current GBP/JPY trend is being driven by the dual forces of "geopolitical tariff pressure + benign support from technical structure". The trend is still bullish, but it is approaching the important resistance zone of 199-200 and may face a technical pullback in the short term.
Fundamentally, the weakness of the yen is more due to external pressure rather than the weakness of the domestic economy, and the short-term depreciation pressure remains; the pound is supported by the relatively stable macroeconomic expectations of the UK. Pay attention to whether Trump's subsequent trade statements will trigger a new round of selling of the yen, and be wary of the technical conflict of the "bull-bear watershed" near the 200 integer.
US President Trump once again expressed his stance on Japan's trade, saying that "if Japan does not expand its purchases of US products, the US may impose high tariffs of 30% to 35% on Japanese imports", which is much higher than the 24% level announced on April 2. This statement triggered a new round of selling pressure on Japanese yen assets in the market.
GBP/JPY is currently trading above the key 100-day exponential moving average (EMA), which is at 193.85, a medium-term bullish defense level. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) on the daily chart is close to 58.00, indicating a solid upward momentum and no overbought risk.
On the upside: the first resistance is in the range of 198.90 to 199.00, which corresponds to the upper track of the Bollinger Band and the psychological barrier of integers; if it breaks through 199.00, the target will be the 200.00 mark, and then up to 200.75 (the high point on May 28), which is an important resistance area this year.
On the downside: the initial support is at 196.28 (July 1 low); if it falls below 196.28, the next support is at 194.18 (lower Bollinger band) and 193.85 (100-day EMA). If 193.85 is lost, it may open up a deeper correction space, with the target pointing to the 192.30 area.
Editor's comments:
The current GBP/JPY trend is being driven by the dual forces of "geopolitical tariff pressure + benign support from technical structure". The trend is still bullish, but it is approaching the important resistance zone of 199-200 and may face a technical pullback in the short term.
Fundamentally, the weakness of the yen is more due to external pressure rather than the weakness of the domestic economy, and the short-term depreciation pressure remains; the pound is supported by the relatively stable macroeconomic expectations of the UK. Pay attention to whether Trump's subsequent trade statements will trigger a new round of selling of the yen, and be wary of the technical conflict of the "bull-bear watershed" near the 200 integer.
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