Iron ore: 1. China Iron and Steel Association: In mid-June, the average daily output of crude steel of key steel enterprises was 2.148 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.5%. Based on this estimate, the daily output of crude steel in the country this week is 2.77 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.2%. 2. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, in June, my country's manufacturing, non-manufacturing and comprehensive PMI were 49.7%, 50.5% and 50.7% respectively, up 0.2, 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, and all three major indexes have rebounded. 3. In May 2025, the crude steel output of 70 countries/regions included in the statistics of the World Steel Association was 158.8 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.8%. 4. On July 1, the sea freight from Western Australia to China was US$6.93/ton, an increase of US$0.11/ton; the sea freight from Brazil to China was US$19.79/ton, a decrease of US$0.71/ton. Supply From June 23 to June 29, 2025, Mysteel's global iron ore shipments totaled 33.576 million tons, a decrease of 1.491 million tons from the previous month. The total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 28.823 million tons, a decrease of 1.785 million tons from the previous month. From June 23 to June 29, 2025, the total amount of iron ore arriving at 47 ports in China was 24.135 million tons, a decrease of 3.594 million tons from the previous month; the total amount of iron ore arriving at 45 ports in China was 23.630 million tons, a decrease of 1.997 million tons from the previous month. Demand On June 27, Mysteel surveyed 247 steel mills and found that the blast furnace operating rate was 83.82%, which was the same as last week and 0.71 percentage points higher than last year; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 90.83%, which was 0.04 percentage points higher than last week and 1.70 percentage points higher than last year; the steel mill profit rate was 59.31%, which was the same as last week and 16.45 percentage points higher than last year; the average daily molten iron output was 2.4229 million tons, which was 1,100 tons higher than last week and 28,500 tons higher than last year. Inventory On June 27, Mysteel statistics showed that the total inventory of imported iron ore in 47 ports across the country was 144.8023 million tons, an increase of 466,700 tons from the previous month; the average daily port clearance volume was 3.3894 million tons, an increase of 114,800 tons. Mysteel statistics show that the total inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills nationwide is 88.4747 million tons, a decrease of 887,700 tons from the previous month; the daily consumption of imported ore in the current sample steel mills is 3.0125 million tons, an increase of 2,500 tons from the previous month; the inventory consumption ratio is 29.37 days, a decrease of 0.32 days from the previous month. From the perspective of the industry, the quarter-end rush of overseas mines has basically ended, and subsequent shipments are expected to fall, while the arrival volume is expected to increase. In terms of demand, the profit margin of steel mills remains at 60%, and the average daily molten iron output remains above 2.4 million tons. The latest data is 2.423 million tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from the previous month. Short-term demand has strong resilience, and in July, facing the steel mill maintenance season, molten iron is expected to be reduced. In terms of inventory, the port has accumulated a small amount of inventory. Overall, the fundamentals are not very contradictory at present, and the ore price is mainly fluctuating, but there is a certain expectation of accumulation in July. Iron ore may be under pressure in the future. Pay attention to the market rush and macro disturbances. The reference range of iron ore 2509 contract is 700-740, and shorting is the main strategy.


Stock index futures: In the previous trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.09%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.61%, the ChiNext Index fell 1.13%, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 fell 1.22%, the CSI 300 rose 0.02%, the Shanghai 50 rose 0.18%, the CSI 500 fell 0.70%, and the CSI 1000 fell 1.01%. The turnover of the two markets was 1,376.967 billion yuan, a decrease of about 89.048 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Among the Shenwan first-level industries, the best performing industries were: steel (3.37%), coal (1.99%), and building materials (1.42%). The worst performing industries were: electronics (-2.01%), communications (-1.96%), and national defense and military industry (-1.94%). In terms of basis, the basis of the four major index futures all weakened slightly. The annualized basis rates of IH and IF contracts in the current quarter are -4.10% and -5.40% respectively, and the annualized basis rates of IC and IM contracts in the current quarter are -10.00% and -13.10% respectively. In terms of hedging, short hedging may consider quarterly and monthly contracts. Yesterday, the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated narrowly and closed down 0.09%, and the trading volume of the two markets decreased slightly. Yesterday, boosted by recent policies, cyclical sectors such as steel and coal performed strongly, and other industry sectors that performed well in the previous period continued to adjust. At present, the rotation of capital sectors and the structural adjustment of the market have lasted for 3-4 trading days, and the short-term adjustment is relatively sufficient. Recently, various major policies have been continuously introduced, and fiscal policies have been put forward. Some ultra-long-term government bonds will be issued in advance in the third quarter, and the recently released PMI data have exceeded expectations. Market sentiment and risk appetite are expected to continue to recover, driving the stock index to strengthen in the short term. IC and IM are expected to continue to rise due to sentiment, and it is recommended to maintain long positions.

Stock index options: On the last trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.09%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.61%, the ChiNext Index fell 1.13%, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 fell 1.22%, the CSI 300 rose 0.02%, the Shanghai 50 rose 0.18%, the CSI 500 fell 0.7%, the CSI 1000 fell 1.01%, and the Shenzhen 100ETF fell 0.33%. The turnover of the two markets was 1,376.967 billion yuan, a decrease of about 89 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Among the Shenwan first-level industries, the best performing industries were: steel (3.37%), coal (1.99%), and building materials (1.42%). The worst performing industries were: defense and military industry (-1.94%), communications (-1.96%), and electronics (-2.01%). In June, both the official manufacturing PMI and Caixin PMI showed signs of improvement. With the active efforts of domestic policies and the support of loose liquidity, market risk appetite is expected to improve further, and the stock index may fluctuate and strengthen. In terms of strategy, medium-term option covered call portfolios can continue to be held; in the short term, the current option implied volatility has a certain premium compared to the historical volatility, but considering that the implied volatility is already in a low range, the volatility seller strategy needs to pay attention to controlling positions to prevent volatility amplification risks.

Rubber: As the rainy season in the main producing countries in Southeast Asia is coming to an end, the condition of rubber trees is expected to be good if there is no persistent drought this year. The supply is expected to increase normally after the rainy season. Overall, the supply in the recent period and the past six months is in line with expectations. From the demand side, the production activities of domestic downstream industries still maintain a relatively weak qualitative state (Note: the current weak state does not represent a dynamic process of weakening in the future), and the overall changes are limited. Therefore, from the perspective of supply and demand balance, there is no strong drive in the balance sheet, corresponding to the short-term fluctuation of unilateral prices. Looking back, in the repeated game between tariff policies and expectations of interest rate cuts, the divergence of demand expectations will become more intense, and it is expected that the market will still have frequent upper and lower shadows. Before expectations can be improved, RU&NR is expected to remain weak.

Methanol: In terms of spot prices, the Northwest Line Daqi is 1950, Lunan is 2280, and Luoyang is 2180. Factories in the main production areas have reduced prices for shipments, and some transactions are completed at a premium. The transfer market is highly differentiated. In the short term, the inventory pressure on the upstream production end is not great; the new long-term contract cycle in the mainland has begun, and traders have different rhythms; freight rates have weakened slightly, and downstream rigid demand purchases are low. Iran shipped 700,000 tons in June. There is a certain expectation of import reduction in July, and the demand for MTO is still there. The probability of a large accumulation of stocks along the coast is also relatively low. On Tuesday, the spot basis in East China was 09+130, the basis in July was 09+90, and the basis in the far month weakened slightly. In the short term, affected by market sentiment, methanol futures prices rebounded slightly, but the overall height may be limited, and the main fluctuations are shocks. In terms of operation, methanol is on the sidelines in the short term, and the reference shock range of methanol 2509 is 2360-2450 yuan/ton.
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Urea: In terms of spot prices, the ex-factory price in Shandong is 1750-1760 yuan/ton, and the ex-factory price in Henan is 1700-1730 yuan/ton. The order collection of urea factories has improved, and the price has risen slightly. The daily output of urea remains high. Later, due to factors such as summer equipment maintenance, the daily output will drop by about 190,000 tons. The upstream production profit remains at around 50-300 yuan/ton, and the profit has not been significantly affected. At present, the export law inspection is proceeding in an orderly manner, and exports are being released in an orderly manner. Recently, Shanxi's large particles have been temporarily stopped for technical transformation, with a total production capacity of 2 million tons, and it is expected to be shut down for about half a year. In the short term, the inventory of urea enterprises has decreased, and the price of urea has rebounded, but the supply and demand are still loose, and attention should be paid to the rebound height. In terms of operation, urea is on the sidelines in the short term, and the reference fluctuation range of urea 2509 is 1700-1800 yuan/ton.

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