Trump's "super bill" encounters obstacles! The rift within the Republican Party has intensified. Will the dream of signing on Independence Day be shattered?
2025-07-03 11:26:43
In the summer of 2025, the US political arena is once again in turmoil. President Trump's "Big, Beautiful" bill, a grand plan covering massive tax cuts and spending, has encountered unexpected resistance in the House of Representatives. Concerns about the cost of the bill by hard-line members of the Republican Party have made it difficult for this highly anticipated legislation to pass before the Independence Day holiday. The air in Washington is filled with tension and uncertainty. House Speaker Johnson is trying his best to mediate and save the situation, and Trump himself has personally stepped in to engage in a fierce battle with opponents.
Bill blocked: Hardliners’ “cost anxiety”
On Wednesday (July 2), the atmosphere in the Capitol in Washington was heavy. The bill that President Trump had high hopes for, aimed at stimulating economic growth through massive tax cuts and spending, suffered a "Waterloo" within the Republican Party of the House of Representatives. A few hard-line lawmakers expressed strong concerns about the high cost of the bill, believing that it could exacerbate the fiscal deficit and even pose a threat to long-term economic stability. These lawmakers were extremely firm in their opposition and made it clear that the current version of the bill could not gain their support. This put the Republican leadership in a dilemma: to maintain party unity while promoting Trump's signature legislation.
Speaker Johnson's "persuasion marathon"
As Speaker of the House, Mike Johnson has become a central figure in this crisis. In closed-door meetings before the bill was voted on, he shuttled between lawmakers, trying to convince skeptical hardliners through negotiation and compromise. Johnson told reporters: "We are working hard to solve everyone's problems and ensure that we can pass this vote. I am quite optimistic about the progress." His optimistic tone could not hide the difficulty of the situation. With the Republicans controlling the House of Representatives with a narrow majority of 220:212, Johnson can only afford to have three members of his party "vote against" at most. However, right-wing hardliners made it clear that their votes against the bill were enough to kill the bill.
Trump personally takes action: emergency talks at the White House
Faced with intra-party divisions, President Trump personally intervened to try to save the situation. On July 2, he met with some Republican lawmakers who opposed the bill at the White House, hoping to use his influence to persuade them to change their positions. Trump's goal was clear: he hoped to sign the bill into law before the July 4 Independence Day holiday, adding a dazzling political achievement to his second term. However, the outcome of the talks was unclear, and the opposition's position remained tough. In order to buy more time, the Republican leadership even postponed the procedural vote for several hours to wait for the support of more lawmakers.
An unexpected incident in logistics and weather
In addition to the internal party divisions, external factors have also added uncertainty to the advancement of the bill. Steve Scalise, the second-ranking Republican in the House of Representatives and a congressman from Louisiana, revealed that several key members of the House of Representatives were delayed by stormy weather and failed to arrive in Washington in time to vote. Scalise told reporters: "We need their votes, and they will be here soon." This sudden situation forced the Republican leadership to adjust its strategy and further postpone the voting time to try to ensure that every key vote is in place.
The “historical baggage” of Republican unity
In recent years, the problem of unity within the Republican Party in Congress has been a "hard nut to crack". Although open resistance to Trump's leadership has been rare since he returned to the White House in January 2025, the bill storm has exposed deep rifts within the Republican Party. The hard-line lawmakers' insistence on fiscal discipline is in stark contrast to Trump's bold economic stimulus plan. This disagreement not only threatens the passage of the current bill, but may also lay hidden dangers for future cooperation within the Republican Party.
The Senate's "Time Trap"
Even if the House of Representatives eventually passes the bill, new challenges are still waiting. Any amendments to the bill by the House of Representatives will require a re-vote in the Senate, and the Senate's review process often takes a long time. This means that even if the House of Representatives reaches a compromise at the last minute, it is almost impossible for the bill to complete all legislative procedures before the July 4 deadline. The "signing dream" before the Independence Day holiday seems to be becoming out of reach.
Conclusion: Trump’s test and the Republican Party’s choice
Trump's "big, beautiful" bill was supposed to be an important opening for his second term, but it encountered unexpected resistance in the House of Representatives. Hardliners within the Republican Party, a tight voting schedule, and unpredictable external factors have cast a shadow over this legislation. Can Johnson's mediation and Trump's personal lobbying turn the situation around at the last minute? Can the Republican Party regain unity under pressure and push the bill through? With the arrival of Independence Day, the outcome of this political drama remains undecided.
Impact on gold prices:
The obstruction of the bill has increased the uncertainty of US politics and economy, which may push up risk aversion in the short term, prompting investors to turn to gold as a safe-haven asset, thereby supporting the rise of gold prices. However, if the bill is eventually significantly revised or shelved, the market may interpret it as a slowdown in fiscal expansion, lower inflation expectations, and reduce the safe-haven demand for gold, which may put pressure on gold prices in the long term. In the short term, gold prices may rise slightly due to uncertainty, but the extent depends on the market's reaction to the political deadlock.
Impact on the US dollar:
The bill contains a massive tax cut and spending plan, which, if passed, could stimulate economic growth and push up the value of the dollar. However, the bill is currently blocked, and the dollar may weaken due to policy uncertainty and lack of market confidence. In the long run, if the scale of fiscal stimulus is reduced, the dollar may be further pressured due to weakened expectations of economic expansion, but if the Republicans reach a compromise and push the bill, the dollar may rebound.
At 11:25 Beijing time, spot gold was trading at $3,346.62 per ounce.
Bill blocked: Hardliners’ “cost anxiety”
On Wednesday (July 2), the atmosphere in the Capitol in Washington was heavy. The bill that President Trump had high hopes for, aimed at stimulating economic growth through massive tax cuts and spending, suffered a "Waterloo" within the Republican Party of the House of Representatives. A few hard-line lawmakers expressed strong concerns about the high cost of the bill, believing that it could exacerbate the fiscal deficit and even pose a threat to long-term economic stability. These lawmakers were extremely firm in their opposition and made it clear that the current version of the bill could not gain their support. This put the Republican leadership in a dilemma: to maintain party unity while promoting Trump's signature legislation.
Speaker Johnson's "persuasion marathon"
As Speaker of the House, Mike Johnson has become a central figure in this crisis. In closed-door meetings before the bill was voted on, he shuttled between lawmakers, trying to convince skeptical hardliners through negotiation and compromise. Johnson told reporters: "We are working hard to solve everyone's problems and ensure that we can pass this vote. I am quite optimistic about the progress." His optimistic tone could not hide the difficulty of the situation. With the Republicans controlling the House of Representatives with a narrow majority of 220:212, Johnson can only afford to have three members of his party "vote against" at most. However, right-wing hardliners made it clear that their votes against the bill were enough to kill the bill.
Trump personally takes action: emergency talks at the White House
Faced with intra-party divisions, President Trump personally intervened to try to save the situation. On July 2, he met with some Republican lawmakers who opposed the bill at the White House, hoping to use his influence to persuade them to change their positions. Trump's goal was clear: he hoped to sign the bill into law before the July 4 Independence Day holiday, adding a dazzling political achievement to his second term. However, the outcome of the talks was unclear, and the opposition's position remained tough. In order to buy more time, the Republican leadership even postponed the procedural vote for several hours to wait for the support of more lawmakers.
An unexpected incident in logistics and weather
In addition to the internal party divisions, external factors have also added uncertainty to the advancement of the bill. Steve Scalise, the second-ranking Republican in the House of Representatives and a congressman from Louisiana, revealed that several key members of the House of Representatives were delayed by stormy weather and failed to arrive in Washington in time to vote. Scalise told reporters: "We need their votes, and they will be here soon." This sudden situation forced the Republican leadership to adjust its strategy and further postpone the voting time to try to ensure that every key vote is in place.
The “historical baggage” of Republican unity
In recent years, the problem of unity within the Republican Party in Congress has been a "hard nut to crack". Although open resistance to Trump's leadership has been rare since he returned to the White House in January 2025, the bill storm has exposed deep rifts within the Republican Party. The hard-line lawmakers' insistence on fiscal discipline is in stark contrast to Trump's bold economic stimulus plan. This disagreement not only threatens the passage of the current bill, but may also lay hidden dangers for future cooperation within the Republican Party.
The Senate's "Time Trap"
Even if the House of Representatives eventually passes the bill, new challenges are still waiting. Any amendments to the bill by the House of Representatives will require a re-vote in the Senate, and the Senate's review process often takes a long time. This means that even if the House of Representatives reaches a compromise at the last minute, it is almost impossible for the bill to complete all legislative procedures before the July 4 deadline. The "signing dream" before the Independence Day holiday seems to be becoming out of reach.
Conclusion: Trump’s test and the Republican Party’s choice
Trump's "big, beautiful" bill was supposed to be an important opening for his second term, but it encountered unexpected resistance in the House of Representatives. Hardliners within the Republican Party, a tight voting schedule, and unpredictable external factors have cast a shadow over this legislation. Can Johnson's mediation and Trump's personal lobbying turn the situation around at the last minute? Can the Republican Party regain unity under pressure and push the bill through? With the arrival of Independence Day, the outcome of this political drama remains undecided.
Impact on gold prices:
The obstruction of the bill has increased the uncertainty of US politics and economy, which may push up risk aversion in the short term, prompting investors to turn to gold as a safe-haven asset, thereby supporting the rise of gold prices. However, if the bill is eventually significantly revised or shelved, the market may interpret it as a slowdown in fiscal expansion, lower inflation expectations, and reduce the safe-haven demand for gold, which may put pressure on gold prices in the long term. In the short term, gold prices may rise slightly due to uncertainty, but the extent depends on the market's reaction to the political deadlock.
Impact on the US dollar:
The bill contains a massive tax cut and spending plan, which, if passed, could stimulate economic growth and push up the value of the dollar. However, the bill is currently blocked, and the dollar may weaken due to policy uncertainty and lack of market confidence. In the long run, if the scale of fiscal stimulus is reduced, the dollar may be further pressured due to weakened expectations of economic expansion, but if the Republicans reach a compromise and push the bill, the dollar may rebound.
At 11:25 Beijing time, spot gold was trading at $3,346.62 per ounce.
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