Institutional comments on June non-farm payrolls: There will be no interest rate cut in July, and there may not be any in September
2025-07-03 20:45:20
On Thursday (July 3), the data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls in the United States in June were 147,000, which was expected to be 110,000, and the previous value was revised from 139,000 to 144,000. The annual rate of average hourly wages in the United States in June was 3.7%, which was expected to be 3.90%, and the previous value was revised from 3.90% to 3.8%.
The total number of non-farm payrolls in the United States in April and May was revised up by 16,000. The number of new non-farm payrolls in April was revised from 147,000 to 158,000; the number of new non-farm payrolls in May was revised from 139,000 to 144,000. After the revision, the total number of new jobs in April and May was 16,000 higher than before the revision. The number of new non-farm payrolls in April was revised from 147,000 to 158,000; the number of new non-farm payrolls in May was revised from 139,000 to 144,000.
Interest rate futures traders abandoned their bets on a July rate cut by the Federal Reserve after the release of the non-farm payrolls report. The market is currently pricing in an 80% chance of a September rate cut by the Federal Reserve, down from 98% before the release of the non-farm payrolls report.
After the release of the non-farm payrolls report, non-US currency pairs fell across the board. The euro/dollar EUR/USD fell 60 points in the short term to 1.1723, the pound/dollar GBP/USD fell more than 50 points in the short term to 1.3597, and the dollar/yen USD/JPY rose 60 points in the short term. Spot gold fell sharply, hitting a new intraday low, with an intraday decline of about 1%.
Institutional comments on non-farm payrolls
Financial blog Zero Hedge : After the release of the US non-farm data, it is expected that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates in July and possibly not in September.
Nick Timiraos, the "Federal Reserve mouthpiece" : The U.S. non-farm report shows that the U.S. labor market still shows slow hiring and slow firing. Employers added 147,000 jobs, total private sector hiring was 74,000, the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, and job growth in April and May was revised up by a net 16,000.
The total number of non-farm payrolls in the United States in April and May was revised up by 16,000. The number of new non-farm payrolls in April was revised from 147,000 to 158,000; the number of new non-farm payrolls in May was revised from 139,000 to 144,000. After the revision, the total number of new jobs in April and May was 16,000 higher than before the revision. The number of new non-farm payrolls in April was revised from 147,000 to 158,000; the number of new non-farm payrolls in May was revised from 139,000 to 144,000.
Interest rate futures traders abandoned their bets on a July rate cut by the Federal Reserve after the release of the non-farm payrolls report. The market is currently pricing in an 80% chance of a September rate cut by the Federal Reserve, down from 98% before the release of the non-farm payrolls report.
After the release of the non-farm payrolls report, non-US currency pairs fell across the board. The euro/dollar EUR/USD fell 60 points in the short term to 1.1723, the pound/dollar GBP/USD fell more than 50 points in the short term to 1.3597, and the dollar/yen USD/JPY rose 60 points in the short term. Spot gold fell sharply, hitting a new intraday low, with an intraday decline of about 1%.
Institutional comments on non-farm payrolls
Financial blog Zero Hedge : After the release of the US non-farm data, it is expected that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates in July and possibly not in September.
Nick Timiraos, the "Federal Reserve mouthpiece" : The U.S. non-farm report shows that the U.S. labor market still shows slow hiring and slow firing. Employers added 147,000 jobs, total private sector hiring was 74,000, the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, and job growth in April and May was revised up by a net 16,000.
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