Silver Forecast: Can bulls hold the key $36.30 level to extend the rally?
2025-07-03 21:56:23
On Thursday (July 3), after the release of the U.S. non-farm data for June, spot silver fell sharply, falling to a low of $36.32 per ounce, a drop of about 0.3%. The current silver price has made a V-shaped reversal during the session, trading at $36.857 per ounce, up about 0.91%.
If the rally can hold the new support at $36.30, traders will focus on a potential test of the 13-year high at $37.32.
However, failure to hold this level could quickly lead to a fall back to the $35.40-34.87 range, with the 50-day moving average waiting just below $34.40. Against the backdrop of a macro environment that continues to be positive for precious metals, this clear technical structure provides traders with a clear framework for short-term positions.
Geopolitics drives silver higher
The U.S. dollar has continued to fall by more than 10% this year, significantly reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as silver. At the same time, geopolitical concerns continue to maintain safe-haven demand for silver and gold.
Supply shortage provides structural support
Silver's gains are not just a byproduct of a weaker dollar and falling yields. The ongoing structural deficit remains in play, with global demand forecast at 1.2 billion ounces in 2025, while supply is expected to grow 3% to 1.05 billion ounces. This supply-demand imbalance continues to support higher prices as industrial and investment demand remains strong.
(Source of spot silver daily chart: Yihuitong)
Silver Market Short-Term Forecast
As long as the price remains above $36.30, the short-term outlook for silver remains bullish. If the dollar continues to weaken and yields remain low, it is expected to test $37.32. If it falls below this support level, it may fall back to the $35.40 range, at which time buyers may re-enter the market.
Currently, a combination of a weaker dollar, lower yields, thin holiday trading, and structural supply tightness are keeping the uptrend intact, providing traders with a clear technical and fundamental backdrop to execute continuation trades in silver.
If the rally can hold the new support at $36.30, traders will focus on a potential test of the 13-year high at $37.32.
However, failure to hold this level could quickly lead to a fall back to the $35.40-34.87 range, with the 50-day moving average waiting just below $34.40. Against the backdrop of a macro environment that continues to be positive for precious metals, this clear technical structure provides traders with a clear framework for short-term positions.
Geopolitics drives silver higher
The U.S. dollar has continued to fall by more than 10% this year, significantly reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as silver. At the same time, geopolitical concerns continue to maintain safe-haven demand for silver and gold.
Supply shortage provides structural support
Silver's gains are not just a byproduct of a weaker dollar and falling yields. The ongoing structural deficit remains in play, with global demand forecast at 1.2 billion ounces in 2025, while supply is expected to grow 3% to 1.05 billion ounces. This supply-demand imbalance continues to support higher prices as industrial and investment demand remains strong.
(Source of spot silver daily chart: Yihuitong)
Silver Market Short-Term Forecast
As long as the price remains above $36.30, the short-term outlook for silver remains bullish. If the dollar continues to weaken and yields remain low, it is expected to test $37.32. If it falls below this support level, it may fall back to the $35.40 range, at which time buyers may re-enter the market.
Currently, a combination of a weaker dollar, lower yields, thin holiday trading, and structural supply tightness are keeping the uptrend intact, providing traders with a clear technical and fundamental backdrop to execute continuation trades in silver.
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
