Crude oil trading reminder: US non-farm data exceeded expectations, the dollar rose, supporting oil prices to rebound upward, and maintaining range fluctuations in the short term
2025-07-04 10:09:29
Oil prices fluctuated within a narrow range, and the market entered a wait-and-see state
As of early Asian trading on Friday, Brent crude futures rose slightly by 0.01% to $68.81 per barrel, while WTI crude oil rose slightly by 0.04% to $67.03. Due to the US holiday, trading volume was low and the overall market trading was light.
Strong U.S. employment data reinforces expectations of Fed remaining on hold
The latest data shows that the number of new jobs in the United States in June reached 147,000, exceeding market expectations, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1%. This strong data reduced concerns about economic recession and also reduced the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in the short term. The resilience of the job market has strengthened the confidence basis for crude oil demand and supported oil prices.
"The U.S. economy continues to show surprising resilience, which will force the Federal Reserve to maintain the current interest rate level for a longer period of time." - Comment by market analysis agency
Trade concerns mount as Trump's tariff plan nears release
Trump said on Thursday that the United States would begin sending tariff notices to 10 countries on Friday, specifying that their goods would face tariffs of 20% to 30% when exported to the United States, marking a shift from his previous strategy of promising multiple bilateral deals.
OPEC+ will increase production to curb the rapid rise in oil prices
Although demand expectations have improved, the pressure on the supply side cannot be ignored. According to four OPEC+ representatives, the organization plans to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day from August to regain global market share. This move may put an upward limit on the current crude oil price.
"OPEC+'s strategy is to gradually restore production capacity to seize more market share, especially against the backdrop of signs of recovery in global demand." - According to market research
Oil prices were partially supported by geopolitical tensions after the U.S. Treasury Department announced sanctions on a network that smuggled Iranian crude disguised as Iraqi crude and a financial institution controlled by Hezbollah.
Barclays raises oil price forecast, reflecting long-term bullish market
Barclays Bank raised its forecast for Brent crude oil on Thursday, from $66 to $72 in 2025 and from $60 to $70 in 2026. The agency believes that the continued growth in global energy consumption will improve the supply and demand pattern of the crude oil market.
"We remain optimistic about the long-term trend of oil prices, given the increase in crude oil demand in Asian countries and developing markets in the coming years." - Barclays Energy Analysis Team
Judging from the daily chart, WTI crude oil is currently fluctuating in the range of US$66.50 to US$68.80. The price is subject to pressure from the 20-day moving average (MA20), while initial support is formed below near the 50-day moving average.
The MACD kinetic energy column tends to be stable, and the RSI indicator is near the neutral area, indicating that the short-term kinetic energy is insufficient and the divergence between long and short positions has intensified. If it can effectively break through $69 in the future, it will open the upward channel to test the $71 line; on the contrary, if it falls below the $66.20 support, it may retreat to the previous low of $64.80.
Editor's opinion:
The current oil price is in a stalemate due to the interweaving of supply and demand factors. On the one hand, the strong employment data in the United States has boosted confidence in crude oil demand, but on the other hand, the reality of OPEC+'s production increase and the uncertainty of Trump's tariff policy have brought double disturbances to the market.
It is worth noting that if trade frictions between Asian countries, major economies such as the European Union and the United States intensify, it may suppress global demand expectations, thereby creating new downward pressure on oil prices.
As of early Asian trading on Friday, Brent crude futures rose slightly by 0.01% to $68.81 per barrel, while WTI crude oil rose slightly by 0.04% to $67.03. Due to the US holiday, trading volume was low and the overall market trading was light.
Strong U.S. employment data reinforces expectations of Fed remaining on hold
The latest data shows that the number of new jobs in the United States in June reached 147,000, exceeding market expectations, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1%. This strong data reduced concerns about economic recession and also reduced the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in the short term. The resilience of the job market has strengthened the confidence basis for crude oil demand and supported oil prices.
"The U.S. economy continues to show surprising resilience, which will force the Federal Reserve to maintain the current interest rate level for a longer period of time." - Comment by market analysis agency
Trade concerns mount as Trump's tariff plan nears release
Trump said on Thursday that the United States would begin sending tariff notices to 10 countries on Friday, specifying that their goods would face tariffs of 20% to 30% when exported to the United States, marking a shift from his previous strategy of promising multiple bilateral deals.
OPEC+ will increase production to curb the rapid rise in oil prices
Although demand expectations have improved, the pressure on the supply side cannot be ignored. According to four OPEC+ representatives, the organization plans to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day from August to regain global market share. This move may put an upward limit on the current crude oil price.
"OPEC+'s strategy is to gradually restore production capacity to seize more market share, especially against the backdrop of signs of recovery in global demand." - According to market research
Oil prices were partially supported by geopolitical tensions after the U.S. Treasury Department announced sanctions on a network that smuggled Iranian crude disguised as Iraqi crude and a financial institution controlled by Hezbollah.
Barclays raises oil price forecast, reflecting long-term bullish market
Barclays Bank raised its forecast for Brent crude oil on Thursday, from $66 to $72 in 2025 and from $60 to $70 in 2026. The agency believes that the continued growth in global energy consumption will improve the supply and demand pattern of the crude oil market.
"We remain optimistic about the long-term trend of oil prices, given the increase in crude oil demand in Asian countries and developing markets in the coming years." - Barclays Energy Analysis Team
Judging from the daily chart, WTI crude oil is currently fluctuating in the range of US$66.50 to US$68.80. The price is subject to pressure from the 20-day moving average (MA20), while initial support is formed below near the 50-day moving average.
The MACD kinetic energy column tends to be stable, and the RSI indicator is near the neutral area, indicating that the short-term kinetic energy is insufficient and the divergence between long and short positions has intensified. If it can effectively break through $69 in the future, it will open the upward channel to test the $71 line; on the contrary, if it falls below the $66.20 support, it may retreat to the previous low of $64.80.
Editor's opinion:
The current oil price is in a stalemate due to the interweaving of supply and demand factors. On the one hand, the strong employment data in the United States has boosted confidence in crude oil demand, but on the other hand, the reality of OPEC+'s production increase and the uncertainty of Trump's tariff policy have brought double disturbances to the market.
It is worth noting that if trade frictions between Asian countries, major economies such as the European Union and the United States intensify, it may suppress global demand expectations, thereby creating new downward pressure on oil prices.
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