Crude oil prices remain resilient despite sharp inventory build
2025-07-09 18:47:54
Oil prices rose slightly during the European session on Wednesday (July 9), hovering near a two-week high set in the previous trading day. After an increase in U.S. crude oil inventories, some markets are waiting for clear signals on U.S. tariff policies.
Data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed that U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 7.1 million barrels in the week ending July 4, compared with expectations for a drop of 2.8 million barrels. Normally, this would have a bearish impact on oil prices, especially as OPEC+ is also increasing production.
At its meeting on Saturday, the OPEC+ group agreed to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day, higher than the 411,000 barrels per day increase in previous months, exceeding market expectations. Again, this news would normally have a bearish impact on oil prices, but oil prices are still trading near two-week highs.
After the announcement, the crude oil market showed considerable resilience. Instead, the market is focusing on the demand side of supply and demand.
China's consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.1% year-on-year in June, exceeding expectations. China is the world's largest oil importer.
In addition, the U.S. is in the middle of peak driving season, which could help support demand. There are also signs in the market that investors are less concerned about the impact of Trump's trade tariffs amid expectations that he is willing to negotiate. U.S. stocks continue to hover near record highs, and the dollar rebounded from a 3.5-year low to hit a two-week high against major currencies.
If investors become less concerned about trade tariffs, that would be positive for economic growth prospects and, in turn, for oil demand.
Inventory data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) will be released later today. A sharp increase in inventories could push oil prices lower.
Technical Analysis
(WTI crude oil daily chart source: Yihuitong)
Oil prices are in a long-term downtrend channel. However, the price has recovered from the low of 55.30 in May and is currently trading above the short-term uptrend line. The price is testing the resistance of the 200-day simple moving average (200 SMA) at 68.50.
Supported by momentum, buyers will look to extend gains to the 70.00 round number and 72.30.
If the price fails to break above the 200-day simple moving average, sellers may try to test the support level of 65, which is both the support of the rising trend line and the midpoint of the descending channel. If it falls below this level, 60.00 will come into focus.
At 18:42 Beijing time, WTI crude oil was quoted at US$68.55 per barrel, up 0.32%.
Data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed that U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 7.1 million barrels in the week ending July 4, compared with expectations for a drop of 2.8 million barrels. Normally, this would have a bearish impact on oil prices, especially as OPEC+ is also increasing production.
At its meeting on Saturday, the OPEC+ group agreed to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day, higher than the 411,000 barrels per day increase in previous months, exceeding market expectations. Again, this news would normally have a bearish impact on oil prices, but oil prices are still trading near two-week highs.
After the announcement, the crude oil market showed considerable resilience. Instead, the market is focusing on the demand side of supply and demand.
China's consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.1% year-on-year in June, exceeding expectations. China is the world's largest oil importer.
In addition, the U.S. is in the middle of peak driving season, which could help support demand. There are also signs in the market that investors are less concerned about the impact of Trump's trade tariffs amid expectations that he is willing to negotiate. U.S. stocks continue to hover near record highs, and the dollar rebounded from a 3.5-year low to hit a two-week high against major currencies.
If investors become less concerned about trade tariffs, that would be positive for economic growth prospects and, in turn, for oil demand.
Inventory data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) will be released later today. A sharp increase in inventories could push oil prices lower.
Technical Analysis
(WTI crude oil daily chart source: Yihuitong)
Oil prices are in a long-term downtrend channel. However, the price has recovered from the low of 55.30 in May and is currently trading above the short-term uptrend line. The price is testing the resistance of the 200-day simple moving average (200 SMA) at 68.50.
Supported by momentum, buyers will look to extend gains to the 70.00 round number and 72.30.
If the price fails to break above the 200-day simple moving average, sellers may try to test the support level of 65, which is both the support of the rising trend line and the midpoint of the descending channel. If it falls below this level, 60.00 will come into focus.
At 18:42 Beijing time, WTI crude oil was quoted at US$68.55 per barrel, up 0.32%.
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