Gold fell below the 3300 mark. How long can the 3250 support last?
2025-07-09 21:10:29
On Wednesday (July 9), spot gold continued to fall, weakening for the second consecutive day, falling below the 3,300 mark, and trading around $3,295 during the North American session, affected by the strengthening of the U.S. dollar index (DXY) and the rise in U.S. bond yields. The market focused on the FOMC meeting minutes released in the early hours of Thursday Beijing time, hoping to find more clues about the direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.
The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50% in its June interest rate meeting, signaling its concern about inflationary pressure and the resilience of the labor market. Although the market expects a rate cut in September, the non-farm payrolls data released last week further reinforced the rationality of the current policy of maintaining a high interest rate level. The CME FedWatch tool shows that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September has dropped to 62.9%.
At the same time, the US fiscal policy and tariff prospects have heated up again. The Trump administration has sent 14 tariff letters to many countries and plans to send 20 more in the next few days. It plans to formally implement a new round of tariff measures on August 1. Although there has been some progress in the trade negotiations between the US and Europe, analysts believe that the short-term risk aversion in the market has not completely subsided.
Trump once again attacked Federal Reserve Chairman Powell on Truth Social on Tuesday, saying he "should resign immediately" and criticizing his decision not to cut interest rates in a timely manner as politically biased. Analysts believe that although the remarks are not effective in policy, they have further exacerbated market concerns about future policy uncertainty.
The daily chart of gold shows an obvious shock consolidation structure, and is currently running between the middle and lower tracks of the Bollinger Bands, with an overall weak trend. Since hitting a high of $3499.83, the market has fallen into a sideways consolidation range, with top resistance concentrated in the $3400-3450 range and bottom support at $3250. The recent price retreated to around 3250 but failed to effectively break below, forming an important support level.
MACD indicator crossover continues, green column enlarges, double lines go down, momentum is weak. RSI indicator runs around 44, and does not show oversold or rebound signals, the price is still in a weak consolidation stage. Analysts believe that if it falls below 3250, it may open up further correction space, pay attention to the support of 3170 area; on the upside, if it can effectively stand above 3400, it is expected to retest the high point of 3450.
The market is currently in a state of high caution. The strong dollar and rising US bond yields continue to suppress gold, an interest-free asset. Although global political and economic uncertainties remain, they have failed to stimulate safe-haven buying of gold, indicating that the market's risk appetite has not changed significantly.
On the other hand, although the uncertainty of tariff policy has brought about a short-term rebound in risk aversion, its support for gold has been significantly weakened in an environment dominated by interest rate expectations. The technical side has been slow to form a breakthrough, and market sentiment is more reflected in wait-and-see. The minutes of the Fed meeting have become a key watershed for the next move of bulls and bears.
Short-term outlook:
The short-term trend of gold depends on the FOMC minutes and changes in inflation expectations. Analysts believe that if the minutes reveal a tendency to cut interest rates this year, it may ease the strong dollar situation, thereby helping gold rebound and test the $3,400 mark. However, if the minutes still emphasize the stickiness of inflation and the necessity of high interest rates, gold may continue to be weak and test the 3,250 support.
Mid- to long-term outlook:
From a medium- to long-term perspective, analysts believe that the downward pressure on the global macro economy, geopolitical uncertainties and the trend of central bank gold purchases still provide potential support for gold. However, it is necessary to be vigilant that if the US dollar remains strong for a long time and US bond yields remain high, gold may find it difficult to gain systemic upward momentum. Traders are closely watching the performance of key data before the September FOMC meeting, especially the CPI and PCE inflation indicators.
Fundamentals
The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50% in its June interest rate meeting, signaling its concern about inflationary pressure and the resilience of the labor market. Although the market expects a rate cut in September, the non-farm payrolls data released last week further reinforced the rationality of the current policy of maintaining a high interest rate level. The CME FedWatch tool shows that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September has dropped to 62.9%.
At the same time, the US fiscal policy and tariff prospects have heated up again. The Trump administration has sent 14 tariff letters to many countries and plans to send 20 more in the next few days. It plans to formally implement a new round of tariff measures on August 1. Although there has been some progress in the trade negotiations between the US and Europe, analysts believe that the short-term risk aversion in the market has not completely subsided.
Trump once again attacked Federal Reserve Chairman Powell on Truth Social on Tuesday, saying he "should resign immediately" and criticizing his decision not to cut interest rates in a timely manner as politically biased. Analysts believe that although the remarks are not effective in policy, they have further exacerbated market concerns about future policy uncertainty.
Technical aspects:
The daily chart of gold shows an obvious shock consolidation structure, and is currently running between the middle and lower tracks of the Bollinger Bands, with an overall weak trend. Since hitting a high of $3499.83, the market has fallen into a sideways consolidation range, with top resistance concentrated in the $3400-3450 range and bottom support at $3250. The recent price retreated to around 3250 but failed to effectively break below, forming an important support level.
MACD indicator crossover continues, green column enlarges, double lines go down, momentum is weak. RSI indicator runs around 44, and does not show oversold or rebound signals, the price is still in a weak consolidation stage. Analysts believe that if it falls below 3250, it may open up further correction space, pay attention to the support of 3170 area; on the upside, if it can effectively stand above 3400, it is expected to retest the high point of 3450.
Market sentiment observation
The market is currently in a state of high caution. The strong dollar and rising US bond yields continue to suppress gold, an interest-free asset. Although global political and economic uncertainties remain, they have failed to stimulate safe-haven buying of gold, indicating that the market's risk appetite has not changed significantly.
On the other hand, although the uncertainty of tariff policy has brought about a short-term rebound in risk aversion, its support for gold has been significantly weakened in an environment dominated by interest rate expectations. The technical side has been slow to form a breakthrough, and market sentiment is more reflected in wait-and-see. The minutes of the Fed meeting have become a key watershed for the next move of bulls and bears.
Outlook
Short-term outlook:
The short-term trend of gold depends on the FOMC minutes and changes in inflation expectations. Analysts believe that if the minutes reveal a tendency to cut interest rates this year, it may ease the strong dollar situation, thereby helping gold rebound and test the $3,400 mark. However, if the minutes still emphasize the stickiness of inflation and the necessity of high interest rates, gold may continue to be weak and test the 3,250 support.
Mid- to long-term outlook:
From a medium- to long-term perspective, analysts believe that the downward pressure on the global macro economy, geopolitical uncertainties and the trend of central bank gold purchases still provide potential support for gold. However, it is necessary to be vigilant that if the US dollar remains strong for a long time and US bond yields remain high, gold may find it difficult to gain systemic upward momentum. Traders are closely watching the performance of key data before the September FOMC meeting, especially the CPI and PCE inflation indicators.
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
