The wait-and-see sentiment in the gold market intensifies, and traders focus on the Fed's statement
2025-07-10 18:07:12
On Thursday (July 10), spot gold maintained a strong trend in the European session, trading around $3,330. Although US President Trump's remarks on imposing a new round of tariffs on many countries triggered safe-haven demand, the FOMC meeting minutes showed differences in the path of interest rate cuts this year, making gold bulls still cautious. Market sentiment is in a wait-and-see attitude, and in the short term, it still needs to wait for the speeches of Fed officials and weekly employment data to guide the direction.
This week, the direction of US macroeconomic policies has become the focus of the market. Trump announced the imposition of tariffs on several small trading partners and pointed out that the relevant countries will not be exempted from extensions. The 50% tariff on copper imports will officially take effect on August 1, significantly increasing market uncertainty. Such statements have strengthened the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset.
At the same time, the minutes of the Fed's June meeting showed that most officials still tend to cut interest rates at an appropriate time this year, but there are differences on whether immediate action is needed. Some members are concerned about the upward risk of inflation brought about by trade policies and tend to keep interest rates stable. This position has supported the US dollar and also suppressed the rise of gold to a certain extent.
In addition, the strong performance of the US 10-year Treasury auction pushed down the US Treasury yields, and the dollar fell from a two-week high, providing bottom support for gold prices. Overall, the analysis believes that gold is driven by safe-haven buying and the Fed's policy game, and its short-term trend is full of uncertainty.
From the daily chart, spot gold has continued to retreat after the previous high of $3499.83, and has been blocked below $3451.14 recently, forming a relatively obvious box consolidation structure. The current price is running below the middle track of the Bollinger Band at $3343.69, indicating that the upward momentum of the bulls is weak. Analysts believe that the short-term key support level is at $3250, which forms a resonance support with the previous low of $3247.87. If it falls below, it may increase the downside risk.
The Bollinger Bands indicator shows that the Bollinger Bands are gradually closing, suggesting that the market is in a stage of volatility convergence, or accumulating momentum for the next stage of the market. The MACD indicator crosses downward, and the histogram remains negative. There is still no clear sign of reversal in the short term. The RSI is near the 50 level, indicating that the market has entered a neutral shock pattern and has not yet broken the current equilibrium state.
Overall, the analysis shows that if the gold price cannot effectively break through the heavy resistance area formed by the Bollinger middle track and the 100-day moving average (around $3,335), the market may still maintain range fluctuations. It is necessary to pay attention to whether the key resistance above $3,400 is broken through in large volume to confirm a new round of upward trend.
The current gold market sentiment tends to be cautious. Although there is an inflow of safe-haven funds, it has not formed a concentrated upward momentum. Traders generally wait for clearer policy signals from the Federal Reserve, especially guidance on the path of future interest rate cuts. Although the weakening of the US dollar has given some support to gold prices, the solid performance of the equity market has limited the further attractiveness of gold as a hedging tool.
In addition, the analysis believes that from the technical trend, the market lacks a clear breakthrough direction, funds prefer short-term swing operations rather than trend-following positions, and market sentiment is more neutral; overall, the current gold market is in a typical consolidation stage and has not yet formed a consistent direction expectation.
Short-term outlook: Analysts believe that as long as the gold price remains above $3,250, it is expected to maintain a range-bound pattern in the short term. If it can stand above $3,335 and run steadily, it is expected to challenge the upper edge of the box at $3,400 and form a short-term breakthrough trend.
Medium-term outlook: Analysts believe that if the Federal Reserve sends stronger dovish signals in the future or US macro data weakens, gold prices will be expected to break through previous highs and restart the upward trend; on the contrary, if interest rates remain high and the US dollar continues to strengthen, it is possible that it will fall below $3,250 and retreat to the $3,120 support level.
Under the current situation, traders are paying attention to the upcoming U.S. weekly initial jobless claims data and the remarks of Federal Reserve officials. Whether they will further strengthen expectations of interest rate cuts will be the key to the direction of gold's breakthrough.
Fundamentals
This week, the direction of US macroeconomic policies has become the focus of the market. Trump announced the imposition of tariffs on several small trading partners and pointed out that the relevant countries will not be exempted from extensions. The 50% tariff on copper imports will officially take effect on August 1, significantly increasing market uncertainty. Such statements have strengthened the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset.
At the same time, the minutes of the Fed's June meeting showed that most officials still tend to cut interest rates at an appropriate time this year, but there are differences on whether immediate action is needed. Some members are concerned about the upward risk of inflation brought about by trade policies and tend to keep interest rates stable. This position has supported the US dollar and also suppressed the rise of gold to a certain extent.
In addition, the strong performance of the US 10-year Treasury auction pushed down the US Treasury yields, and the dollar fell from a two-week high, providing bottom support for gold prices. Overall, the analysis believes that gold is driven by safe-haven buying and the Fed's policy game, and its short-term trend is full of uncertainty.
Technical aspects:
From the daily chart, spot gold has continued to retreat after the previous high of $3499.83, and has been blocked below $3451.14 recently, forming a relatively obvious box consolidation structure. The current price is running below the middle track of the Bollinger Band at $3343.69, indicating that the upward momentum of the bulls is weak. Analysts believe that the short-term key support level is at $3250, which forms a resonance support with the previous low of $3247.87. If it falls below, it may increase the downside risk.
The Bollinger Bands indicator shows that the Bollinger Bands are gradually closing, suggesting that the market is in a stage of volatility convergence, or accumulating momentum for the next stage of the market. The MACD indicator crosses downward, and the histogram remains negative. There is still no clear sign of reversal in the short term. The RSI is near the 50 level, indicating that the market has entered a neutral shock pattern and has not yet broken the current equilibrium state.
Overall, the analysis shows that if the gold price cannot effectively break through the heavy resistance area formed by the Bollinger middle track and the 100-day moving average (around $3,335), the market may still maintain range fluctuations. It is necessary to pay attention to whether the key resistance above $3,400 is broken through in large volume to confirm a new round of upward trend.
Market sentiment observation:
The current gold market sentiment tends to be cautious. Although there is an inflow of safe-haven funds, it has not formed a concentrated upward momentum. Traders generally wait for clearer policy signals from the Federal Reserve, especially guidance on the path of future interest rate cuts. Although the weakening of the US dollar has given some support to gold prices, the solid performance of the equity market has limited the further attractiveness of gold as a hedging tool.
In addition, the analysis believes that from the technical trend, the market lacks a clear breakthrough direction, funds prefer short-term swing operations rather than trend-following positions, and market sentiment is more neutral; overall, the current gold market is in a typical consolidation stage and has not yet formed a consistent direction expectation.
Outlook for the future:
Short-term outlook: Analysts believe that as long as the gold price remains above $3,250, it is expected to maintain a range-bound pattern in the short term. If it can stand above $3,335 and run steadily, it is expected to challenge the upper edge of the box at $3,400 and form a short-term breakthrough trend.
Medium-term outlook: Analysts believe that if the Federal Reserve sends stronger dovish signals in the future or US macro data weakens, gold prices will be expected to break through previous highs and restart the upward trend; on the contrary, if interest rates remain high and the US dollar continues to strengthen, it is possible that it will fall below $3,250 and retreat to the $3,120 support level.
Under the current situation, traders are paying attention to the upcoming U.S. weekly initial jobless claims data and the remarks of Federal Reserve officials. Whether they will further strengthen expectations of interest rate cuts will be the key to the direction of gold's breakthrough.
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
