OPEC International Seminar discusses three major energy topics: green transformation, oil outlook and capacity challenges
2025-07-10 23:01:47
On Thursday (July 10, 2025), the 9th OPEC International Seminar held in Vienna attracted more than a thousand global energy ministers, CEOs, policymakers, analysts and journalists to discuss oil and gas market trends and green transformation paths. The conference focused on three core topics: green transformation, oil demand outlook and capacity expansion, which sparked widespread heated discussions.
Green transformation: Dual-track strategy sparks controversy
OPEC ministers called for a dual-track strategy in the green transition, namely developing renewable energy while continuing to invest in hydrocarbons to ensure energy security.
"Oil and gas are indispensable in transportation, heavy industry and emerging economies," Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman said in a special speech on Wednesday. "Many countries are pragmatically adjusting their energy transition policies, emphasizing the role of hydrocarbons."
OPEC Secretary-General Haitham AlGhais further pointed out in an interview on Thursday: "The world needs to invest in all energy sources and develop emission-reducing technologies to meet the climate challenge."
This strategy has sparked criticism, with some people seeing it as a "greenwashing" act that serves the interests of Middle Eastern countries that rely on oil revenues. In 2021, then-US President Joe Biden accused Saudi Arabia, Russia and China of not doing enough on climate action. Saudi Arabia and Russia pledged to achieve net zero emissions by 2060, while the US goal is 2050. Current President Donald Trump advocates "unleashing American energy" and supports increasing domestic oil production.
Oil Outlook: Demand Growth and Production Decisions
OPEC's World Oil Outlook 2050 released on Thursday predicts that global oil demand will increase by 18.2 million barrels per day to 122.9 million barrels per day from 2024 to 2050, mainly driven by India, the Middle East and Africa. Oil and gas are expected to account for more than 50% of the global energy structure.
In the short term, OPEC+ is paying attention to market dynamics. On July 5, Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United Arab Emirates and other eight countries decided to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August on the grounds of "low inventory" and "healthy market fundamentals." UAE Energy Minister Suhail AlMazrouei said: "The market has strong absorption capacity and the increase in production has not led to a surge in inventory, showing the resilience of demand." Brent crude oil prices are currently stable at $68-69 per barrel, reflecting a balanced market.
Capacity: Insufficient investment is a concern
OPEC has called for more investment in the oil and gas industry to cope with declining production capacity. The World Oil Outlook 2025 estimates that $18.2 trillion will be needed between 2025 and 2050 to offset the natural decline in oil production and meet demand.
Azerbaijan’s Energy Minister Parviz Shahbazov stressed: “The growth in demand requires an immediate increase in production and infrastructure investments.”
Suhail AlMazrouei pointed out that global spare capacity is decreasing year by year, and some OPEC+ countries are having difficulty maintaining production. Spare capacity has become the focus of quota negotiations, and Iraq, Kazakhstan and the UAE have sought larger quotas.
The International Energy Agency predicts that global oil investment will fall by 6% in 2025, the first time since 2020, and refinery investment will hit a 10-year low. Indian Oil Minister Hardeep Singh Puri said: "Stable and predictable oil prices are critical for consumers and industry investment." India plans to expand its oil and gas exploration area to 1 million square kilometers by 2030.
Green transformation: Dual-track strategy sparks controversy
OPEC ministers called for a dual-track strategy in the green transition, namely developing renewable energy while continuing to invest in hydrocarbons to ensure energy security.
"Oil and gas are indispensable in transportation, heavy industry and emerging economies," Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman said in a special speech on Wednesday. "Many countries are pragmatically adjusting their energy transition policies, emphasizing the role of hydrocarbons."
OPEC Secretary-General Haitham AlGhais further pointed out in an interview on Thursday: "The world needs to invest in all energy sources and develop emission-reducing technologies to meet the climate challenge."
This strategy has sparked criticism, with some people seeing it as a "greenwashing" act that serves the interests of Middle Eastern countries that rely on oil revenues. In 2021, then-US President Joe Biden accused Saudi Arabia, Russia and China of not doing enough on climate action. Saudi Arabia and Russia pledged to achieve net zero emissions by 2060, while the US goal is 2050. Current President Donald Trump advocates "unleashing American energy" and supports increasing domestic oil production.
Oil Outlook: Demand Growth and Production Decisions
OPEC's World Oil Outlook 2050 released on Thursday predicts that global oil demand will increase by 18.2 million barrels per day to 122.9 million barrels per day from 2024 to 2050, mainly driven by India, the Middle East and Africa. Oil and gas are expected to account for more than 50% of the global energy structure.
In the short term, OPEC+ is paying attention to market dynamics. On July 5, Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United Arab Emirates and other eight countries decided to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August on the grounds of "low inventory" and "healthy market fundamentals." UAE Energy Minister Suhail AlMazrouei said: "The market has strong absorption capacity and the increase in production has not led to a surge in inventory, showing the resilience of demand." Brent crude oil prices are currently stable at $68-69 per barrel, reflecting a balanced market.
Capacity: Insufficient investment is a concern
OPEC has called for more investment in the oil and gas industry to cope with declining production capacity. The World Oil Outlook 2025 estimates that $18.2 trillion will be needed between 2025 and 2050 to offset the natural decline in oil production and meet demand.
Azerbaijan’s Energy Minister Parviz Shahbazov stressed: “The growth in demand requires an immediate increase in production and infrastructure investments.”
Suhail AlMazrouei pointed out that global spare capacity is decreasing year by year, and some OPEC+ countries are having difficulty maintaining production. Spare capacity has become the focus of quota negotiations, and Iraq, Kazakhstan and the UAE have sought larger quotas.
The International Energy Agency predicts that global oil investment will fall by 6% in 2025, the first time since 2020, and refinery investment will hit a 10-year low. Indian Oil Minister Hardeep Singh Puri said: "Stable and predictable oil prices are critical for consumers and industry investment." India plans to expand its oil and gas exploration area to 1 million square kilometers by 2030.
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