Trump imposes 50% tariffs on Brazil. Will Americans be unable to afford breakfast coffee and orange juice? Or may the shock trigger panic over soaring prices?
2025-07-11 09:18:03
When the Trump administration wielded the tariff stick against Brazil, the "world's coffee kingdom", it probably didn't expect that the first to taste the bitterness would be the taste buds of Americans. This earthquake, which affects the global agricultural trade, is turning the daily ritual of 200 million American coffee lovers into a luxury, and turning the orange juice on supermarket shelves into "liquid gold".
On the electronic screen of the New York Futures Exchange, Arabica coffee futures prices are skyrocketing. Behind the 1.3% increase in a single day is the life and death of 8.14 million bags of Brazilian coffee. As the coffee giant that occupies one-third of the US market, Brazil's 60-kilogram bags of coffee beans were originally good quality and cheap, but after the 50% tariff fell, Michael Nugent, a senior coffee broker in California, predicted: "This is like detonating a nuclear bomb in the coffee supply chain."
Paulo Almerín, a coffee farm owner in Sao Paulo, is urgently contacting German buyers. His calculator shows that when American roasters face the price after the tariff, the numbers on the order book are disappearing at a visible speed. In the warehouses of West Coast traders, the price list of Colombian and Vietnamese coffee has quietly increased by 15%. After all, the global coffee inventory cannot fill the huge hole left by Brazil.
Even more suffocating than the coffee crisis is the crazy 6% rise in frozen concentrated orange juice futures. In Miami supermarkets, housewives found that the price tags of Brazilian imported orange juice were being refreshed every week. This orange juice kingdom, which occupies half of the US market, is experiencing a supply winter that has not been seen in 88 years - under the double blow of Huanglongbing and hurricanes, the output of Florida citrus orchards has fallen to the level of World War II.
The early warning report of the US Department of Agriculture was crumpled and unfolded: the production of orange juice this quarter will fall below the historical low. Traders know that when Brazilian cargo ships turn to Europe, the American breakfast table will face a vitamin C supply crisis. A commodity trader in New York revealed: "Every barrel of orange juice in the warehouse now is more worth hoarding than Bitcoin."
The "exemption list" mentioned by U.S. Commerce Secretary Lutnick in Congress has become the last hope, and Eduardo Heron, president of the Brazilian Coffee Exporters Association, is lobbying in Washington. But the inertia of the tariff war is far more terrible than imagined. When traders urgently turned to Honduran coffee and Mexican oranges, the price transmission chain has already started: Starbucks price lists, supermarket promotional posters, and even convenience store automatic coffee machines are all brewing a new round of price increases.
Economists at the University of Chicago calculated that this tariff storm could increase American households' annual food expenditure by $230. Even more cruelly, the price of coffee beans, which had already soared 70% last year, is breaking the highest record in the 157-year history of the New York Stock Exchange. Americans who are used to spending $5 on breakfast suddenly found that their daily caffeine supply alone would empty their wallets.
When the White House's tariff stick meets the global supply chain, the first to bleed are often the wallets of ordinary consumers. This political game that began with trade balance will eventually turn into dazzling numbers on supermarket receipts. Perhaps it is just as the black humor of Wall Street traders: "The most valuable investment now may be the coffee machine in your kitchen and the orange juice in the refrigerator." After all, in this magical year of 2025, being able to afford an authentic breakfast has become the latest Versailles standard.
1. Coffee Wars: America’s Morning Nightmare
On the electronic screen of the New York Futures Exchange, Arabica coffee futures prices are skyrocketing. Behind the 1.3% increase in a single day is the life and death of 8.14 million bags of Brazilian coffee. As the coffee giant that occupies one-third of the US market, Brazil's 60-kilogram bags of coffee beans were originally good quality and cheap, but after the 50% tariff fell, Michael Nugent, a senior coffee broker in California, predicted: "This is like detonating a nuclear bomb in the coffee supply chain."
Paulo Almerín, a coffee farm owner in Sao Paulo, is urgently contacting German buyers. His calculator shows that when American roasters face the price after the tariff, the numbers on the order book are disappearing at a visible speed. In the warehouses of West Coast traders, the price list of Colombian and Vietnamese coffee has quietly increased by 15%. After all, the global coffee inventory cannot fill the huge hole left by Brazil.
2. Orange juice crisis: Vitamin C disappears from breakfast tables
Even more suffocating than the coffee crisis is the crazy 6% rise in frozen concentrated orange juice futures. In Miami supermarkets, housewives found that the price tags of Brazilian imported orange juice were being refreshed every week. This orange juice kingdom, which occupies half of the US market, is experiencing a supply winter that has not been seen in 88 years - under the double blow of Huanglongbing and hurricanes, the output of Florida citrus orchards has fallen to the level of World War II.
The early warning report of the US Department of Agriculture was crumpled and unfolded: the production of orange juice this quarter will fall below the historical low. Traders know that when Brazilian cargo ships turn to Europe, the American breakfast table will face a vitamin C supply crisis. A commodity trader in New York revealed: "Every barrel of orange juice in the warehouse now is more worth hoarding than Bitcoin."
3. The Seven-Wound Fist Effect: Tariffs Bite Back at America
The "exemption list" mentioned by U.S. Commerce Secretary Lutnick in Congress has become the last hope, and Eduardo Heron, president of the Brazilian Coffee Exporters Association, is lobbying in Washington. But the inertia of the tariff war is far more terrible than imagined. When traders urgently turned to Honduran coffee and Mexican oranges, the price transmission chain has already started: Starbucks price lists, supermarket promotional posters, and even convenience store automatic coffee machines are all brewing a new round of price increases.
Economists at the University of Chicago calculated that this tariff storm could increase American households' annual food expenditure by $230. Even more cruelly, the price of coffee beans, which had already soared 70% last year, is breaking the highest record in the 157-year history of the New York Stock Exchange. Americans who are used to spending $5 on breakfast suddenly found that their daily caffeine supply alone would empty their wallets.
summary
When the White House's tariff stick meets the global supply chain, the first to bleed are often the wallets of ordinary consumers. This political game that began with trade balance will eventually turn into dazzling numbers on supermarket receipts. Perhaps it is just as the black humor of Wall Street traders: "The most valuable investment now may be the coffee machine in your kitchen and the orange juice in the refrigerator." After all, in this magical year of 2025, being able to afford an authentic breakfast has become the latest Versailles standard.
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