Copper: Overnight, Shanghai copper stabilized at around 78,500 yuan, and LME copper closed at 9,682 US dollars. The current CL premium is about 28.5%. Macroeconomics is strong inside and weak outside. Domestically, expectations for real estate improvement have increased, and copper prices have stabilized and rebounded slightly. Overseas, Trump announced that a 50% tariff would be imposed on imported US copper on August 1, and the Federal Reserve warned of inflationary pressure brought by tariffs, and the recovery of Shanghai and London copper was limited. Fundamentals are neutral and bearish. Yesterday, the Shanghai Futures Exchange copper warehouse receipts increased by 393 tons. This week, Shanghai bonded copper inventory decreased by 4,100 tons to 68,800 tons from last week, and LME copper accumulated 975 tons to 108,000 tons. This week, the import price ratio was repaired, the export window was closed, and the import profit improved, resulting in a decrease in inventory, but the overall supply and demand of the industry continued to be weak. Overall, the short-term copper price trend is mainly related to the US copper import tariffs. The proportion of tariff threats and the time of implementation exceeded expectations, which triggered the reflux selling pressure and arbitrage drive, which dragged down the Shanghai-London market. In the near future, Shanghai-London copper may continue to fluctuate weakly. Today, the main operating range of Shanghai copper is 78,000-79,000 yuan/ton. In terms of strategy, the range is the main one, and aggressive investors can still sell short at highs.


Stock index futures: In the previous trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.48%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.47%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.22%, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 fell 0.32%, the CSI 300 rose 0.47%, the Shanghai 50 rose 0.62%, the CSI 500 rose 0.50%, and the CSI 1000 rose 0.25%. The turnover of the two markets was 1,494.148 billion yuan, a decrease of about 11.028 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Among the Shenwan first-level industries, the best performing industries were: real estate (3.19%), petroleum and petrochemicals (1.54%), and steel (1.44%). The worst performing industries were: automobiles (-0.62%), media (-0.54%), and defense and military industry (-0.41%). In terms of basis, the basis of the four major index futures was basically flat, with a slight weakening. The annualized basis rates of IH and IF contracts in the current quarter are -2.90% and -4.60% respectively, and the annualized basis rates of IC and IM contracts in the current quarter are -10.40% and -13.10% respectively. In terms of hedging, short hedging may consider quarterly and monthly contracts. The Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated higher in the last trading day, closing up 0.48%, and the turnover of the two markets fell slightly. Yesterday, the Shanghai Composite Index rose, setting a new high for the year. In the afternoon, the market may be boosted by the recent expectations of real estate policies, and the real estate sector rose rapidly. If the real estate market ushered in a new round of policies in the short term, it would help the property market to recover quickly, or it could be expected that real estate prices would stop falling and stabilize. The stabilization of the real estate market would greatly boost social consumption and investment confidence, and may further strengthen the trading enthusiasm of the capital market. The recent upward trend of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets has gradually been established, and the possibility of upward movement in the short term is relatively large, and the downward adjustment is limited. IC and IM are expected to continue to rise due to sentiment, and it is recommended to maintain long positions.

Stock index options: In the last trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.48%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.47%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.22%, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 fell 0.32%, the CSI 300 rose 0.47%, the Shanghai 50 rose 0.62%, the CSI 500 rose 0.5%, the CSI 1000 rose 0.25%, and the Shenzhen 100ETF rose 0.5%. The turnover of the two markets was 1,494.148 billion yuan, a decrease of about 11 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Among the Shenwan first-level industries, the best performing industries are: real estate (3.19%), petroleum and petrochemicals (1.54%), and steel (1.44%). The worst performing industries are: defense and military industry (-0.41%), media (-0.54%), and automobiles (-0.62%). Yesterday, the stock index continued to rise. With the positive efforts of domestic policies and the support of loose liquidity, the market risk appetite is expected to improve further, and the stock index may fluctuate mainly in a strong direction. In terms of strategy, the medium-term option covered call portfolio can continue to be held; in the short term, the option implied volatility has risen, and the current option implied volatility has a certain premium compared to the historical volatility, but considering that the implied volatility is in a low range, the volatility seller strategy needs to pay attention to controlling the position to prevent the volatility from continuing to amplify the risk.

Treasury bond futures: On Thursday, treasury bond futures fell. On the one hand, based on the closing price, the main 30-year contract fell by 0.36%, the main 10-year contract fell by 0.16%, the main 5-year contract fell by 0.14%, and the main 2-year contract fell by 0.04%. The yield of the active 30-year treasury bond rose by 1.6bp to 1.876%, the yield of the active 10-year bond rose by 1.45bp to 1.6595%, and the yield of the active 2-year bond rose by 1.5bp to 1.39%. In terms of futures inter-product spreads, 4TS-T, 2TF-T and 3T-TL changed by 0.007 yuan, -0.115 yuan and -0.095 yuan respectively. Unilateral strategy: Affected by the expectations of the real estate shantytown renovation policy, the futures bond adjusted again. The short-term pressure does not change the medium-term upward trend, mainly because it is difficult to carry out a large-scale shantytown renovation monetization process similar to that in 2017 under the background of weak demand. CPI is still low, the latest PMI is in the contraction range, the funding side remains loose, the overall fundamentals are still friendly to the bond market, and the logic of long-term bond bull market has not changed. It is recommended to continue to hold TL long orders. Cross-product strategy: Policy disturbances will not change the preference of funds for long-term bonds, and the expectation of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts may cool down in the short term, which is not conducive to short-term bonds. Continue to hold short-long and long-long arbitrage combinations. Hedging strategy: The basis has been repaired upward recently, and the short hedging portfolio positions can be gradually closed at present.

Shanghai Lead: Shanghai Lead fluctuated strongly overnight. From a fundamental perspective, on the supply side, primary lead production is reduced and resumed at the same time. After the increase and decrease offset each other, it is expected that production will maintain an increase. On the recycling side, some refineries in Anhui and Hebei have plans to end maintenance, and the supply of recycled lead will increase slightly. The overall start-up may continue to remain low, and there is little pressure on short-term inventory accumulation. Refineries may continue to be cautious about shipping. On the demand side, the market still has optimistic expectations for consumption with the arrival of the traditional peak season, and attention is paid to the transmission effect of battery price increases by storage companies. Overall, the price of scrap batteries has rebounded, cost support has gradually strengthened, and demand expectations have gradually warmed up. Pay attention to whether the macro economy can form a synergy.

Shanghai zinc: Shanghai zinc fluctuated strongly overnight. On the macro level, Fed Governor Waller said that a rate cut in July could be considered, and macro sentiment was mixed, with the US dollar index rebounding from a low level. From a fundamental perspective, on the supply side, in terms of raw materials, major domestic mines and concentrators operated normally in July, and some companies in Inner Mongolia temporarily stopped production for maintenance. On the supply side, according to statistics from Steel Union, domestic refineries have strong production enthusiasm, and there is still a small increase in July. On the demand side, the number of days for galvanized manufacturers in the north and south to receive orders has shrunk, and the social warehouse has accumulated slightly yesterday. Consumption has not improved, and zinc prices are under pressure. Overall, black sentiment boosted zinc prices, but short-term spot support is still insufficient, and zinc prices are weak to rise.

Rubber: On Thursday, domestic full latex was 14,350 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan/ton from the previous day; Thailand No. 20 mixed rubber was 14,200 yuan/ton, up 320 yuan/ton from the previous day. Raw material side: Yesterday, Thai glue closed at 54.3 baht/kg, unchanged from the previous day; Thai cup rubber closed at 47.55 baht/kg, up 0.25 baht/kg from the previous day; Yunnan glue closed at 13.5 yuan/kg, up 0.1 yuan/kg from the previous day; Hainan glue closed at 12.8 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. As of July 6, 2025, China's social inventory of natural rubber was 1.293 million tons, down 0.02 million tons from the previous month, a decrease of 0.02%. China's total social inventory of dark rubber was 791,000 tons, up 0.25% from the previous month. Among them, Qingdao spot inventory increased by 0.05%; Yunnan decreased by 0.31%; Vietnam 10# increased by 6%; NR inventory subtotal increased by 4%. China's total social inventory of light-colored rubber was 502,000 tons, down 0.45% month-on-month. Among them, old full latex decreased by 0.9% month-on-month, 3L increased by 7.9% month-on-month, and RU inventory subtotal decreased by 1%. Viewpoint: As the rainy season in the main producing countries in Southeast Asia is coming to an end, in the absence of persistent drought this year, the condition of rubber trees is expected to be good. At the end of the rainy season, the supply is expected to increase normally. Overall, the supply in the recent period and the past six months is in line with expectations. From the demand side, after the slowdown in production activities in the domestic tire industry, the finished product inventory has been digested. Although the current state is still weak, it has not shown a weaker dynamic change. With the arrival of macro expectations, RU&NR rebounded strongly, but the fundamentals have changed limitedly, and the sustainability of the rebound remains to be seen.

Rebar: This week, the average daily molten iron output of 247 steel mills was 2.3981 million tons, a weekly decrease of 10,400 tons; rebar production decreased by 44,200 tons, inventory decreased by 48,400 tons, and surface demand decreased by 33,700 tons to 2.215 million tons. Short-term supply and demand are both weak, but inventory is still in the destocking channel. Recently, there have been many favorable news such as "anti-involution" and "promoting the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries". Market sentiment tends to be optimistic. In addition, the contradictions on the finished product side have not yet fully emerged. Under the background of low inventory, the enthusiasm of downstream replenishment has increased, further pushing up the market, accelerating the rebound of rebar, and avoiding short-term short orders.

Hot-rolled coil: On the industrial side, data from China Steel Union showed that this week's hot-rolled coil production decreased by 50,000 tons, inventory increased slightly by 6,300 tons, and surface demand decreased by 18,600 tons. Recently, there have been many favorable news such as "anti-involution" and "promoting the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries". The market sentiment tends to be optimistic. In addition, the contradictions on the finished product side have not yet fully emerged. Under the background of low inventory, the enthusiasm of downstream to replenish inventory has increased, further pushing up the market.

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