Trump's tariff escalation stimulates risk aversion, gold prices rise for three consecutive days but are constrained by the Fed's expectation of no interest rate cut in the short term
2025-07-11 13:56:50
Gold's safe-haven demand picks up as trade concerns mount
The Trump administration has issued more than 20 tariff notices this week, including a 35% tariff on Canadian goods and a 50% tariff on copper. Market concerns about the outlook for global trade are rapidly rising, and safe-haven assets, especially gold, are regaining attention.
"We are seeing continued safe-haven flows into the gold market, especially against the backdrop of a marked increase in volatility in risky assets." - According to market research, Mikael Rennan, an analyst at the New York Commodity Research Institute, pointed out
It is particularly noteworthy that this round of trade policy escalation has affected traditional allies, further exacerbating the volatility of global supply chains and inflation expectations.
The Fed's attitude is hawkish, and the strong dollar may suppress the upside of gold prices
The U.S. non-farm data released last week was strong, and the number of initial jobless claims fell again to 227,000 this week, highlighting the robustness of the U.S. labor market. This has significantly reduced expectations that the Federal Reserve will immediately cut interest rates this year, supporting the U.S. dollar index to stabilize near a two-week high, limiting the continued increase in gold bulls.
In the minutes of the June 17-18 meeting, most Fed officials were still concerned about inflation risks, and only a few supported a rate cut in July.
"Current policy is already tight, but there are still no clear economic signals to trigger a rate cut in the short term." - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said
"We expect the inflation from tariffs to be short-lived and that rate cuts will not be politically motivated." -- Christopher Waller, a member of the Federal Reserve Board
"It is too early to tell whether tariffs will have a short-term impact on inflation or a long-term trend." - St. Louis Fed President Musalem added
From the technical chart, if the gold price can continue to break through the 3,340-3,342 range, it is expected to confirm that it has stood above the 100-period moving average of the 4-hour chart, opening up further room for growth. The short-term resistance level is located in the 3,360-3,362 range and the key psychological level of 3,400. If the bulls continue to have momentum, the market is expected to challenge this area in the future.
The initial support level below is at 3,326. If it fails, it will attract bargain hunting and form support near the 3,300 mark. Stronger support is seen in the 3,283-3,282 area of Tuesday's low. If it continues to break, it may fall to the early July low of 3,248-3,247.
"Gold prices have a bullish short-term structure, but if they fail to break through $3,342, they will face the risk of a correction." - Laura Nguyen, a London-based precious metals technical analyst, commented, according to market research.
Editor's opinion:
Gold is currently being driven by the dual forces of "safe-haven inflows and hawkish Fed suppression", and may remain volatile at a high level in the short term. Although trade concerns provide bottom support for gold, the strong dollar and uncertainty in the outlook for interest rate policies remain major constraints.
The Trump administration has issued more than 20 tariff notices this week, including a 35% tariff on Canadian goods and a 50% tariff on copper. Market concerns about the outlook for global trade are rapidly rising, and safe-haven assets, especially gold, are regaining attention.
"We are seeing continued safe-haven flows into the gold market, especially against the backdrop of a marked increase in volatility in risky assets." - According to market research, Mikael Rennan, an analyst at the New York Commodity Research Institute, pointed out
It is particularly noteworthy that this round of trade policy escalation has affected traditional allies, further exacerbating the volatility of global supply chains and inflation expectations.
The Fed's attitude is hawkish, and the strong dollar may suppress the upside of gold prices
The U.S. non-farm data released last week was strong, and the number of initial jobless claims fell again to 227,000 this week, highlighting the robustness of the U.S. labor market. This has significantly reduced expectations that the Federal Reserve will immediately cut interest rates this year, supporting the U.S. dollar index to stabilize near a two-week high, limiting the continued increase in gold bulls.
In the minutes of the June 17-18 meeting, most Fed officials were still concerned about inflation risks, and only a few supported a rate cut in July.
"Current policy is already tight, but there are still no clear economic signals to trigger a rate cut in the short term." - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said
"We expect the inflation from tariffs to be short-lived and that rate cuts will not be politically motivated." -- Christopher Waller, a member of the Federal Reserve Board
"It is too early to tell whether tariffs will have a short-term impact on inflation or a long-term trend." - St. Louis Fed President Musalem added
From the technical chart, if the gold price can continue to break through the 3,340-3,342 range, it is expected to confirm that it has stood above the 100-period moving average of the 4-hour chart, opening up further room for growth. The short-term resistance level is located in the 3,360-3,362 range and the key psychological level of 3,400. If the bulls continue to have momentum, the market is expected to challenge this area in the future.
The initial support level below is at 3,326. If it fails, it will attract bargain hunting and form support near the 3,300 mark. Stronger support is seen in the 3,283-3,282 area of Tuesday's low. If it continues to break, it may fall to the early July low of 3,248-3,247.
"Gold prices have a bullish short-term structure, but if they fail to break through $3,342, they will face the risk of a correction." - Laura Nguyen, a London-based precious metals technical analyst, commented, according to market research.
Editor's opinion:
Gold is currently being driven by the dual forces of "safe-haven inflows and hawkish Fed suppression", and may remain volatile at a high level in the short term. Although trade concerns provide bottom support for gold, the strong dollar and uncertainty in the outlook for interest rate policies remain major constraints.
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