Next week's economic outlook (July 15-July 20): China's GDP and US inflation data are in focus
2025-07-11 14:47:54
Next week (July 15 to July 20), the global market will usher in a series of heavyweight economic data and events, among which China's second quarter GDP, the US June CPI and speeches by central bank officials from many countries will become the focus of investors. The following is a preview of key time nodes and data (all in Beijing time):
09:00 China releases import and export and trade balance data for June, reflecting the status of external demand and domestic supply chain.
UK BRC retail sales for June (07:01) and revised South Korean trade data (07:55) will also be released, providing clues on consumption and trade in the Asia-Pacific region.
10:00 China's second quarter GDP, June industrial value added, retail sales and unemployment rate data are released together. The market expects that the year-on-year GDP growth rate may slow slightly to 5.1%.
20:30 The June CPI data of the United States is released. Whether the core CPI annual rate can continue to decline will affect the Fed's expectations of rate cuts. The Canadian CPI on the same day is also worth paying attention to.
Central bank speeches: Bank of England Governor Bailey and Finance Minister Reeves will deliver speeches (time to be determined), and Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Bowman and other officials will speak intensively, which may reveal signals about the policy path.
14:00 The UK CPI data for June is released. If inflation continues to be above the target, it may strengthen the Bank of England's stance on postponing interest rate cuts.
20:30 The U.S. PPI and industrial production data for June are released, further revealing inflationary pressures.
At 02:00 the next day, the Federal Reserve released the Beige Book, outlining the economic conditions in each jurisdiction.
In addition, pay attention to the OPEC crude oil market monthly report and speeches by several Federal Reserve officials.
09:30 Australia’s June employment data. Whether the labor market cools down will affect the RBA’s policy.
16:30 The final value of Eurozone HICP for June confirms the inflation level.
20:30 U.S. retail sales in June and initial jobless claims for the same week will test consumer resilience and job market strength.
20:30 U.S. housing starts and construction permit data for June reflect the performance of the real estate market in a high interest rate environment.
The G20 Finance Ministers' Meeting (hosted by South Africa) is coming to an end, with focus on the issue of global fiscal policy coordination.
Geopolitics and visits: Australian Prime Minister Albanese visits China (until July 18), and China-Australia economic and trade relations may become a focus of discussion.
Central Bank Decision: Bank Indonesia will announce its interest rate decision on July 16, and the market expects it to remain unchanged.
Next week, the main market trend will focus on China's economic growth momentum, US inflation trends and central bank policy expectations. If China's GDP exceeds expectations or US CPI cools down significantly, it may boost risky assets; otherwise, volatility will increase.
Investors need to pay close attention to the market reaction before and after the data is released and the signals released by officials' speeches.
July 15 (Monday): China trade data takes the lead
09:00 China releases import and export and trade balance data for June, reflecting the status of external demand and domestic supply chain.
UK BRC retail sales for June (07:01) and revised South Korean trade data (07:55) will also be released, providing clues on consumption and trade in the Asia-Pacific region.
July 16 (Tuesday): China's GDP and the Fed's dynamics
10:00 China's second quarter GDP, June industrial value added, retail sales and unemployment rate data are released together. The market expects that the year-on-year GDP growth rate may slow slightly to 5.1%.
20:30 The June CPI data of the United States is released. Whether the core CPI annual rate can continue to decline will affect the Fed's expectations of rate cuts. The Canadian CPI on the same day is also worth paying attention to.
Central bank speeches: Bank of England Governor Bailey and Finance Minister Reeves will deliver speeches (time to be determined), and Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Bowman and other officials will speak intensively, which may reveal signals about the policy path.
July 17 (Wednesday): UK inflation and the Fed's Beige Book
14:00 The UK CPI data for June is released. If inflation continues to be above the target, it may strengthen the Bank of England's stance on postponing interest rate cuts.
20:30 The U.S. PPI and industrial production data for June are released, further revealing inflationary pressures.
At 02:00 the next day, the Federal Reserve released the Beige Book, outlining the economic conditions in each jurisdiction.
In addition, pay attention to the OPEC crude oil market monthly report and speeches by several Federal Reserve officials.
July 18 (Thursday): Global employment and consumption data
09:30 Australia’s June employment data. Whether the labor market cools down will affect the RBA’s policy.
16:30 The final value of Eurozone HICP for June confirms the inflation level.
20:30 U.S. retail sales in June and initial jobless claims for the same week will test consumer resilience and job market strength.
July 19 (Friday): European and American real estate market data finalized
20:30 U.S. housing starts and construction permit data for June reflect the performance of the real estate market in a high interest rate environment.
The G20 Finance Ministers' Meeting (hosted by South Africa) is coming to an end, with focus on the issue of global fiscal policy coordination.
Other important events
Geopolitics and visits: Australian Prime Minister Albanese visits China (until July 18), and China-Australia economic and trade relations may become a focus of discussion.
Central Bank Decision: Bank Indonesia will announce its interest rate decision on July 16, and the market expects it to remain unchanged.
Summarize:
Next week, the main market trend will focus on China's economic growth momentum, US inflation trends and central bank policy expectations. If China's GDP exceeds expectations or US CPI cools down significantly, it may boost risky assets; otherwise, volatility will increase.
Investors need to pay close attention to the market reaction before and after the data is released and the signals released by officials' speeches.
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
