According to the monthly supply and demand report released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) on Friday, driven by record export demand, U.S. corn ending stocks in 2024/25 are expected to fall to 1.34 billion bushels, lower than the 1.365 billion bushels forecast last month and the average analyst expectation of 1.353 billion bushels. The USDA raised its corn export forecast from 2.65 billion bushels to 2.75 billion bushels, breaking the historical record in 2020/21. This export surge will reduce U.S. corn stocks to a four-year low, but the expected autumn harvest will push supplies to a record high.



Despite an expected bumper harvest in Brazil, the world's second-largest corn supplier, U.S. corn still has an advantage in the international market with its competitive prices. Brazil's corn exports faced logistics bottlenecks at the beginning of the shipping season due to competition with record soybean production for port loading capacity, further increasing the export demand for U.S. corn. Thanks to good weather conditions in the Midwest agricultural belt, U.S. corn and soybean crops are growing well and are expected to have a bumper harvest in the fall of 2025, further increasing global corn supplies.

However, strong production prospects in the United States and Brazil have caused Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) corn (CZ25) and soybean (SX25) futures prices to multi-month lows. After the release of the USDA report, December corn futures prices briefly rose before falling to a new contract low, while November soybean futures continued to fall. Jake Hanley, managing director of Teucrium Trading, said: "The impact of this report is not enough to trigger large-scale transactions. The current market is more driven by weather and crop growth conditions."

USDA expects U.S. corn production in 2025/26 to be 15.705 billion bushels, with a yield of 181.0 bushels per acre, slightly lower than the 15.820 billion bushels forecast last month, but still the highest level in history. Reuters analysts' average forecast is 15.731 billion bushels. Soybean production was slightly lowered to 4.335 billion bushels, with a yield of 52.5 bushels per acre, close to the 4.340 billion bushels forecast last month, and basically consistent with the average analyst expectation of 4.334 billion bushels.

Global Market Impact and Outlook

Strong export demand and bumper harvest expectations are reshaping the global corn market. The growth of U.S. corn exports is not only driven by logistics restrictions in Brazil, but also further boosted by continued demand for high-quality corn from major importers such as China. According to USDA data, global corn trade volume is expected to hit a new high in 2024/25, and the U.S. market share may further expand.

At the same time, the market is paying more attention to weather risks. Although the current weather conditions are favorable, analysts warn that drought or extreme weather in the coming weeks could affect crop yields in the Midwest of the United States, pushing up corn and soybean prices. Investors and traders are closely watching weather forecasts and subsequent USDA reports to assess potential changes in the supply and demand balance.

In addition, the USDA report also pointed out that global corn stocks are expected to tighten slightly due to increased exports, especially against the backdrop of increased production uncertainty in South America and the Black Sea region. This may provide some support for US corn prices, although CBOT futures prices are still suppressed by expectations of a bumper harvest in the short term.