Gold prices rose on Friday as a weaker dollar and continued geopolitical and economic uncertainty boosted demand for safe-haven gold. Spot gold rose 0.4% to $3,353.25 an ounce, after falling 1.1% in the previous session. U.S. gold futures also rose 0.4% to $3,359.70. Gold prices were largely stable around $3,350 an ounce this week.



Suki Cooper, precious metals analyst at Standard Chartered Global Research, said: "Concerns about U.S. debt growth and further news on tariffs are likely to keep gold in the spotlight, and it looks like gold is well supported at the bottom at the moment."

On the tariff front, Indonesia was still working out the details of a new trade deal with the United States, while U.S. Treasury Secretary Jeff Besant told Japan's prime minister that a "good deal" was possible.

Indonesia is still negotiating the details of a recent trade deal with the United States and is seeking exemptions for its exports of palm oil and nickel after the United States reduced its threatened tariffs on Indonesia from 32% to 19% this week. Indonesia has asked the United States to exempt its exports of cocoa, rubber, crude palm oil, coffee and nickel from tariffs, Indonesian economic officials said, adding that U.S. technology products would also be exempt from Indonesia's "local content" rules, which require companies to use locally made components in production.

The United States imposes a 25% tariff on Japan, and Japan's top trade negotiator Ryomasa Akazawa said that as part of bilateral trade negotiations, he and U.S. Commerce Secretary Mattis Lutnick are trying to agree on a package of measures covering a wide range of issues, but this will not be easy because U.S. President Trump is "very tough."

Additionally , U.S. President Donald Trump is reportedly pushing for tariffs of at least 15% to 20% in any deal with the European Union, and even if a deal is reached, the administration is now considering reciprocal tariffs of more than 10%.

The report cited unnamed sources as saying that Trump was indifferent to the EU's latest proposal to lower auto tariffs and would maintain the 25% auto tariff as planned.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned on Friday that despite an increase in trade and improved financial conditions, risks related to trade tensions continue to cloud the global economic outlook and uncertainty remains high. IMF First Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath said the organization will update its global forecasts in late July, given "frontloading of imports and exports ahead of tariff increases and some trade diversion," as well as signs of improved financial conditions and continued decline in inflation.

In April, the IMF slashed its growth forecasts for the United States and most other countries, citing the impact of U.S. tariffs on imports, which are now the highest in a century, and warned that rising trade tensions would slow growth further.

At the time, the IMF cut its 2025 global growth forecast by 0.5 percentage point to 2.8%, and cut its medium-term (five-year) growth forecast by 0.3 percentage point to 3%. Economists expect the IMF to slightly raise its forecasts when it releases its latest forecasts in late July.

Gopinath told a meeting of G20 finance officials in South Africa this week that trade tensions continued to complicate the economic outlook.

“While we will update our global forecasts in late July, downside risks continue to dominate the outlook and uncertainty remains high,” she said in her speech.

She urged countries to resolve trade tensions and implement policy reforms to address underlying domestic imbalances, including cutting fiscal spending and putting debt on a sustainable track.

Gopinath also stressed the need for monetary policy officials to carefully tailor decisions to their country's specific circumstances and stressed the need to preserve central bank independence, a key theme in the G20 communique released by finance officials.

Gopinath said that in the face of policy uncertainty and increased market volatility, capital flows to emerging market and developing economies remain sluggish but resilient. Financing conditions remain tight for many borrowing countries.

Gopinath said it was crucial to take proactive measures for countries with unsustainable debt, and reiterated the IMF's call for a timely and effective debt restructuring mechanism. She said more work was needed on this issue, including allowing middle-income countries to join the G20 common debt restructuring framework.

Data released on Thursday showed that U.S. retail sales rose 0.6% in June, a larger-than-expected increase. Unemployment data also came in better than expected, with initial jobless claims falling 7,000 to a seasonally adjusted 221,000 in the week ended July 12. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a 235,000 increase. The strong economic data showed that the U.S. economy remains on solid footing, so the Federal Reserve remains hesitant to re-emerge monetary easing.

Inflation in the United States accelerated as expected in June, with the consumer price index rising 2.7% year-on-year, compared with a 2.4% increase in May. The core CPI rose 2.9%, higher than the previous value of 2.8%.

"The slightly weaker-than-expected core inflation data for June preserves the possibility of a Fed rate cut in September, but the risk is that the data for July and August may not be as benign," said James Knightley of ING. "This means we will need to see clear evidence of softening employment data to prompt the Fed to act before December."

But this week's news that Trump might fire Powell briefly pushed up gold prices on Wednesday. As Trump denied the news, gold prices fell back. On Wednesday, it was reported that after asking Republican lawmakers "whether Federal Reserve Chairman Powell should be fired," US President Trump has drafted a letter to fire Powell, and Trump is expected to announce the firing of Powell soon.

After the news was reported, Trump quickly said that the report was untrue. Trump said, "Republicans are pushing to fire Powell, and my position is more conservative. Unless there is fraud in the renovation process, the federal government's renovation project may involve fraud."

Trump also said he discussed the "concept of firing (Fed Chairman Powell)" with Republicans. Denied drafting a letter to fire Fed Chairman Powell. Trump said he was only interested in "low interest rate people" as Fed chairman. (Remarks on firing Fed Chairman Powell) Very unlikely. Expressed concerns about (Fed) reform. Changes will happen in the next eight months; someone who performs well will be appointed.

Trump said, "They said if I remove Fed Chairman Powell, the market will be disturbed. If Powell wants to resign, I will be happy to do so." According to Semafor, U.S. congressmen canceled a dinner with Fed Chairman Powell. The dinner was likely intended to resolve the relevant differences, but the cancellation of the dinner shows that the situation has not yet been resolved.

The head of the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) said on Thursday that according to very reliable congressional sources, one or more members of Congress may charge Powell with perjury in the Justice Department over the $2.5 billion renovation of the Federal Reserve building.

Fed Chairman Powell responded by providing more details on the Fed building renovation issue mentioned by White House Budget Director Vought. Add a new page on the website for (financial) transparency on the Fed building renovation issue. The Fed building needs extensive repairs. Ask the Federal Reserve Inspector General to conduct a new review of the renovation project. According to the renovation project, we do not have dedicated elevators, private elevators, or VIP elevators in the Federal Reserve building. There are no beehives, rooftop gardens, or marble paving.

With the news of Powell's dismissal hanging over the market, the Fed's July meeting may break the central bank's collective thinking. Given that both Fed Governors Waller and Bowman have expressed support for a rate cut at the next Fed meeting, this move is likely to be opposed by the majority of the Federal Open Market Committee, and the voting results may show that two Fed Governors cast dissenting votes. This would be a significant departure from the Fed's tradition of relying heavily on consensus during Chairman Powell's tenure.

The last time two Fed governors dissented from a majority vote at the same meeting was in December 1993, when Wayne Angell and Larry Lindsey both advocated tighter policy than the Greenspan-led Fed voted in favor of. During Powell's tenure so far, Fed policy committee members have cast a total of 650 votes, with only 16 dissenting votes.

Fed Governor Waller has emerged as the leading internal candidate to succeed Powell as chairman, especially given his clear support for rate cuts this year. Waller said on Friday that while the White House has not discussed the chairmanship with him, he would accept it if offered.

This week's geopolitical situation also supported gold prices to remain stable around $3,350 an ounce. U.S. President Trump said on Wednesday that the United States has not given up its extreme pressure on Iran, including restricting Iran's oil sales, but he hinted that law enforcement might be relaxed to help Iran rebuild; Trump also expressed dissatisfaction with Putin. In addition, it was reported that Iranian-backed militias may be the culprit behind the attack on Iraqi Kurdistan oil fields this week, boosting geopolitical tensions.

Whether gold prices can break through $3,350/ounce next week, tariffs remain the focus, and with the statements of several potential successors to Powell on rate cuts, Trump may criticize Powell even more, and even fire him. Related news may accelerate gold price fluctuations next week.