Copper: Overnight, the main Shanghai copper rose to 80,390 yuan, and the London copper touched a high of 10,000 US dollars and then slightly adjusted to around 9,950 US dollars. Macro neutral. The US ISM manufacturing PMI rose to 49 in June, higher than expected but still in the shrinking range, and new orders have decreased for five consecutive months. The impact of trade policy disturbances is temporarily limited. At the same time, Powell's dovish stance does not rule out a rate cut in July, and the macro sentiment has improved significantly, boosting copper prices. The fundamentals are bullish. Yesterday, the Shanghai Futures Exchange copper warehouse receipts decreased by 1,078 tons to 25,000 tons, and LME copper increased by 625 tons to 91,000 tons. Domestic smelting companies accelerated the layout of exports, and the spot premium strengthened to 200 yuan. Overall, the expectation of overseas interest rate cuts and the resilience of economic performance have gradually revised macro expectations. In addition, the recent tight supply of domestic and foreign spot supplies has provided support for copper prices. It is expected that copper prices will fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the terminal off-season and tariff disturbances may still limit the upward trend. Be cautious about chasing too high. Today, the main operating range of Shanghai copper is 79500-81000 yuan/ton. In terms of strategy, wait and see for now. Radical investors should set a stop profit if they try to buy more.


Stock index futures: In the previous trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.39%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.11%, the ChiNext Index fell 0.24%, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 fell 0.86%, the CSI 300 rose 0.17%, the Shanghai 50 rose 0.21%, the CSI 500 rose 0.33%, and the CSI 1000 rose 0.28%. The turnover of the two markets was 1,466.015 billion yuan, a decrease of about 20.842 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Among the Shenwan first-level industries, the best performing industries were: comprehensive (2.60%), pharmaceutical and biological (1.80%), and banking (1.54%). The worst performing industries were: computer (-1.18%), commerce and retail (-0.79%), and communication (-0.45%). In terms of basis, the basis of the four major index futures all weakened slightly. The annualized basis rates of IH and IF contracts for the current quarter are -4.40% and -6.10% respectively, and the annualized basis rates of IC and IM contracts for the current quarter are -12.10% and -16.00% respectively. In terms of hedging, short hedging may consider quarterly and monthly contracts. Yesterday, the Shanghai Composite Index opened slightly higher and then fluctuated upward. The increase slightly increased after the opening of the afternoon, closing up 0.39%, and the turnover of the two markets decreased slightly. Yesterday, driven by the rise of the pharmaceutical and banking sectors, both the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets rose slightly. The small and medium-sized stocks and technology sectors that were relatively active last week had a certain degree of correction, which was more of a short-term structural adjustment performance. In the medium and long term, the repair of market sentiment and risk preference is expected to continue. Small and medium-sized stocks and growth style sectors usually perform better than large-cap stocks and value style sectors in the process of continuous sentiment repair. In the short term, the rotation of capital sectors and styles may intensify, and the intraday amplitude of each index will expand and the volatility will rise. The market may definitely undergo a phased adjustment in the near future. Yesterday, Caixin.com released the Caixin PMI index for June, which was 50.4, up 2.1 percentage points from May, returning to the expansion range. We need to pay attention to other macroeconomic indicators in the future to continue to verify that the economy is stable and improving, and provide support for the index. IC and IM are expected to continue to rise due to sentiment, and it is recommended to hold long positions.

Stock index options: On the last trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.39%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.11%, the ChiNext Index fell 0.24%, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 fell 0.86%, the CSI 300 rose 0.17%, the Shanghai 50 rose 0.21%, the CSI 500 rose 0.33%, the CSI 1000 rose 0.28%, and the Shenzhen 100ETF fell 0.11%. The turnover of the two markets was 1,466.015 billion yuan, a decrease of about 20.8 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Among the Shenwan first-level industries, the best performing industries are: comprehensive (2.6%), pharmaceutical and biological (1.8%), and banking (1.53%). The worst performing industries are: communications (-0.45%), commerce and retail (-0.79%), and computers (-1.18%). In June, my country's manufacturing, non-manufacturing and composite PMIs were 49.7%, 50.5% and 50.7% respectively, up 0.2, 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, and all three indexes rebounded. With the weakening of overseas disturbances, the market risk appetite is expected to further improve under the support of active domestic policy and loose liquidity, and the stock index may be mainly volatile. In terms of strategy, medium-term option covered call portfolios can continue to be held; in the short term, the current option implied volatility has a certain premium compared to the historical volatility, but considering that the implied volatility is already at a low level, the volatility seller strategy needs to pay attention to controlling positions to prevent volatility amplification risks.

Rubber: On Tuesday, domestic full latex was 14,000 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day; Thailand No. 20 mixed rubber was 13,950 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day. Raw material side: Yesterday, Thai glue closed at 55.5 baht/kg, down 0.5 baht/kg from the previous day; Thai cup rubber closed at 47.95 baht/kg, down 0.1 baht/kg from the previous day; Yunnan glue closed at 13.6 yuan/kg, up 0.1 yuan/kg from the previous day; Hainan glue closed at 12.4 yuan/kg, flat from the previous day. As of June 29, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 632,100 tons, an increase of 14,800 tons from the previous period, an increase of 2.40%. Bonded area inventory was 80,700 tons, down 0.62%; general trade inventory was 551,400 tons, up 2.85%. The storage rate of Qingdao natural rubber sample bonded warehouses increased by 1.39 percentage points, and the storage rate decreased by 0.18 percentage points; the storage rate of general trade warehouses increased by 0.58 percentage points, and the storage rate increased by 0.28 percentage points. Viewpoint: As the rainy season in the main producing countries in Southeast Asia is coming to an end, the condition of rubber trees is expected to be good without persistent drought this year. The supply is expected to increase normally after the rainy season ends. Overall, the supply in the recent period and the past six months is in line with expectations. From the demand side, the production activities of domestic downstream industries still maintain a weak qualitative state (Note: the current weak state does not represent a dynamic process of weakening in the future), and the overall changes are limited. Therefore, from the perspective of supply and demand balance, the balance sheet does not show strong drive, corresponding to the short-term fluctuation of unilateral prices. Looking back, in the repeated game between tariff policies and interest rate cut expectations, the divergence in demand expectations will become more intense, and it is expected that the market will still see frequent upper and lower shadows. Before expectations can be improved, RU&NR is expected to remain weak.

Methanol: In terms of spot prices, the prices of Daqi in the northwest line, Lunan in 2280, and Luoyang in 2180 are all priced lower. Factories in the main production areas are shipping at reduced prices, and some transactions are completed at a premium. The transfer market is highly differentiated. In the short term, the inventory pressure on the upstream production side is not great; the new long-term contract cycle in the mainland has begun, and traders have different rhythms; freight rates have weakened slightly, and downstream buyers are buying on dips. Iran shipped 700,000 tons in June. There is a certain expectation of import reduction in July, and the demand for MTO is still there. The probability of a large accumulation of stocks in the coastal areas is relatively low. On Tuesday, the spot basis in East China was 09+130, and the basis in July was 09+90, and the basis in the far month weakened slightly. In the short term, methanol futures prices may fluctuate and lack of driving force. In terms of operation, methanol is on the sidelines in the short term, and the reference fluctuation range of methanol 2509 is 2380-2500 yuan/ton. ?

Urea: In terms of spot prices, the ex-factory price in Shandong is 1730-1750 yuan/ton, and the ex-factory price in Henan is 1700-1730 yuan/ton. Driven by export sentiment, the spot price rebounded slightly. The daily output of urea remains high, and it may drop by about 190,000 tons due to large particles in Shanxi. The profit of upstream production remains at around 50-300 yuan/ton, and the profit has not been significantly affected. At present, the export legal inspection is proceeding in an orderly manner, and exports are being liberalized in an orderly manner. Recently, Shanxi large particles have been temporarily stopped for technical transformation, with a total production capacity of 2 million tons, and it is expected to be shut down for about half a year. In the short term, urea prices rebounded after oversold, and without further driving force, they may fluctuate. In terms of operation, wait and see for urea in the short term, and the reference fluctuation range of urea 2509 is 1700-1800 yuan/ton.

Rebar: Last week, the average daily molten iron output of 247 steel mills was 2.423 million tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from the previous week; the profit rate of steel mills was 59.31%, which was flat from the previous month. Rebar production increased by 56,600 tons from the previous month, inventory decreased by 20,700 tons, and the apparent demand increased by 7,200 tons to 2.1991 million tons. The destocking speed of rebar slowed down in the short term. Affected by the rumors of production restrictions in Tangshan and the news of the Central Finance and Economics Commission on promoting the orderly withdrawal of backward production capacity, rebar gradually strengthened, and raw materials continued to weaken. In the short term, the market is still dominated by emotional market conditions, and in the medium term, attention should be paid to the implementation of production restrictions.

Hot-rolled coil: On the industrial side, data from Steel Union showed that last week, the output of hot-rolled coil increased by 17,900 tons, the inventory increased slightly by 9,900 tons, and the surface demand decreased by 44,400 tons. The supply of cold-rolled and medium and thick plates remained high, and the inventory accumulated, and the pressure was relatively large. Affected by the rumors of production restrictions in Tangshan and the news of the Central Finance and Economics Commission to promote the orderly withdrawal of backward production capacity, hot-rolled coils gradually strengthened, and raw materials continued to weaken. In the short term, the market is still dominated by emotional market conditions, and in the medium term, it is necessary to pay attention to the implementation of production restrictions. In terms of strategy, the 2950-3050 range is the focus of rebar 2510, and the 3100-3200 range is the focus of hot-rolled coil 2510 contracts.

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