The tug-of-war between gold bulls and bears has escalated, and this week will usher in a decisive trend battle!
2025-07-02 15:57:55
On Wednesday (July 2), spot gold prices were slightly under pressure during the European session, temporarily leaving the rebound trend of the previous two days. The US dollar rebounded slightly from a three-and-a-half-year low, coupled with the recovery of the overall risk appetite in the market, which suppressed the safe-haven asset gold. However, factors such as the Fed's upcoming resumption of interest rate cuts, uncertainty in US fiscal policy and concerns about trade barriers have provided some support for gold prices. The market is waiting for the upcoming US employment data to determine the future direction of monetary policy. Gold prices remain volatile and have not yet escaped from the key technical area.
The current trend of gold is affected by multiple fundamental factors. On the one hand, the US dollar index rebounded modestly from a multi-year low, putting short-term pressure on gold denominated in US dollars. On the other hand, many Fed officials have recently released dovish signals, supporting the possibility of interest rate cuts in the coming months. Fed Chairman Powell also said that if it were not for the high uncertainty caused by US fiscal and trade policies, the Fed could have relaxed its policies. The market currently expects a 20% probability of a rate cut in July and a 75% probability in September.
Meanwhile, US economic data continued to send mixed signals. The ISM manufacturing PMI contracted for the fourth consecutive month in June, although the contraction slowed down; while the JOLTS job vacancies unexpectedly increased, reflecting that the labor market is still tight. The ADP private sector employment data and the heavyweight non-farm payrolls report (NFP) to be released later this week will be the key basis for measuring the resilience of the US economy and inflation trends, and will have a decisive significance for the direction of gold.
Gold is currently in a typical ascending triangle structure, reflecting that the market bullish trend has not been broken but faces strong resistance. On the daily chart, gold as a whole fluctuates between $3,250 and $3,400, with obvious horizontal support and resistance bands formed at both ends of the range.
The Bollinger Bands are converging as a whole, indicating that volatility is shrinking, indicating that the large-scale direction selection is approaching. The green column of the MACD indicator has narrowed slightly, and the short-term momentum is still bearish but there are signs of weakening. The RSI indicator is running around 49, maintaining a neutral and bearish state, and there is no obvious deviation in the short term, suggesting that there is still the possibility of subsequent shock consolidation.
The current gold market sentiment tends to be cautious, and traders generally take a wait-and-see attitude, waiting for the US non-farm payrolls data before making decisions. Judging from futures positions and ETF flows, funds have not significantly increased gold positions, indicating that the market has not yet formed a consistent expectation. In addition, the frequent dovish stance of Federal Reserve officials has kept the market's expectations for rate cuts, but the higher-than-expected job vacancy data has suppressed some easing expectations, leading to divergent market sentiment.
Overall, gold is currently at the intersection of technical consolidation and fundamental game. The short-term repair of the US dollar limits the rebound space of gold prices, but the potential interest rate cut cycle and policy uncertainty provide support for gold prices. The market generally lacks a sense of direction and waits for external catalysts to drive a breakthrough.
Short-term outlook:
Analysts believe that if gold holds the key support of $3,250 and forms a K-line reversal signal again, the price is expected to challenge the $3,400 resistance again. If the non-farm data this week is weak, it will strengthen the market's expectations of the Fed's policy shift, and is expected to push gold to break through the volatility range and challenge the previous high of $3,450. On the contrary, if the employment data is strong and inflation concerns rise, the US dollar may further rebound, and the gold price may fall below $3,250 and retreat to the $3,200 or even lower support area.
Mid- to long-term outlook:
Structurally, gold is still in the upward channel, and there is no sign of trend destruction. Analysts believe that as long as the upward trend line is not effectively broken, the overall trend of gold is still bullish. If the Federal Reserve officially starts the interest rate cut cycle in the future, coupled with the expansion of fiscal deficits and the slowdown of economic growth prospects, gold will still have room for upward movement in the medium and long term.
The current trend of gold is affected by multiple fundamental factors. On the one hand, the US dollar index rebounded modestly from a multi-year low, putting short-term pressure on gold denominated in US dollars. On the other hand, many Fed officials have recently released dovish signals, supporting the possibility of interest rate cuts in the coming months. Fed Chairman Powell also said that if it were not for the high uncertainty caused by US fiscal and trade policies, the Fed could have relaxed its policies. The market currently expects a 20% probability of a rate cut in July and a 75% probability in September.
Meanwhile, US economic data continued to send mixed signals. The ISM manufacturing PMI contracted for the fourth consecutive month in June, although the contraction slowed down; while the JOLTS job vacancies unexpectedly increased, reflecting that the labor market is still tight. The ADP private sector employment data and the heavyweight non-farm payrolls report (NFP) to be released later this week will be the key basis for measuring the resilience of the US economy and inflation trends, and will have a decisive significance for the direction of gold.
Technical aspects:
Gold is currently in a typical ascending triangle structure, reflecting that the market bullish trend has not been broken but faces strong resistance. On the daily chart, gold as a whole fluctuates between $3,250 and $3,400, with obvious horizontal support and resistance bands formed at both ends of the range.
The Bollinger Bands are converging as a whole, indicating that volatility is shrinking, indicating that the large-scale direction selection is approaching. The green column of the MACD indicator has narrowed slightly, and the short-term momentum is still bearish but there are signs of weakening. The RSI indicator is running around 49, maintaining a neutral and bearish state, and there is no obvious deviation in the short term, suggesting that there is still the possibility of subsequent shock consolidation.
Market sentiment observation
The current gold market sentiment tends to be cautious, and traders generally take a wait-and-see attitude, waiting for the US non-farm payrolls data before making decisions. Judging from futures positions and ETF flows, funds have not significantly increased gold positions, indicating that the market has not yet formed a consistent expectation. In addition, the frequent dovish stance of Federal Reserve officials has kept the market's expectations for rate cuts, but the higher-than-expected job vacancy data has suppressed some easing expectations, leading to divergent market sentiment.
Overall, gold is currently at the intersection of technical consolidation and fundamental game. The short-term repair of the US dollar limits the rebound space of gold prices, but the potential interest rate cut cycle and policy uncertainty provide support for gold prices. The market generally lacks a sense of direction and waits for external catalysts to drive a breakthrough.
Outlook
Short-term outlook:
Analysts believe that if gold holds the key support of $3,250 and forms a K-line reversal signal again, the price is expected to challenge the $3,400 resistance again. If the non-farm data this week is weak, it will strengthen the market's expectations of the Fed's policy shift, and is expected to push gold to break through the volatility range and challenge the previous high of $3,450. On the contrary, if the employment data is strong and inflation concerns rise, the US dollar may further rebound, and the gold price may fall below $3,250 and retreat to the $3,200 or even lower support area.
Mid- to long-term outlook:
Structurally, gold is still in the upward channel, and there is no sign of trend destruction. Analysts believe that as long as the upward trend line is not effectively broken, the overall trend of gold is still bullish. If the Federal Reserve officially starts the interest rate cut cycle in the future, coupled with the expansion of fiscal deficits and the slowdown of economic growth prospects, gold will still have room for upward movement in the medium and long term.
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