Precious metals: The "Big and Beautiful" bill was voted through by the U.S. House of Representatives. The U.S. debt burden will further increase, damaging the credit of the U.S. dollar, which also caused precious metals to surge during the session. However, overnight U.S. economic data generally improved. New non-farm employment in June rose more than expected, the unemployment rate fell, factory orders in May increased significantly month-on-month, and the ISM non-manufacturing index in June was also higher than expected. The positive economic data suppressed the Fed's expectations of rate cuts, causing precious metals to fall at night. Overall, the passage of the "Big and Beautiful" bill has increased the long-term debt burden of the United States and further weakened the credit of the U.S. dollar. The long-term support for precious metals remains strong. In terms of operation, long-term long orders continue to be held. The reference range of Shanghai Gold 2510 is 760-800 yuan/gram, and the reference range of Shanghai Silver 2508 is 8700-9100 yuan/kilogram.


Stock index futures: In the previous trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.18%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.17%, the ChiNext Index rose by 1.90%, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 rose by 0.24%, the CSI 300 rose by 0.62%, the Shanghai 50 rose by 0.07%, the CSI 500 rose by 0.50%, and the CSI 1000 rose by 0.53%. The turnover of the two markets was 1,309.734 billion yuan, a decrease of about 67.234 billion yuan from the previous trading day. ? Among the Shenwan first-level industries, the best performing industries were: electronics (1.69%), electronic equipment (1.38%), and pharmaceuticals and biology (1.35%). The worst performing industries were: coal (-1.16%), transportation (-0.28%), and steel (-0.13%). ? In terms of basis, the basis of the four major futures indexes all weakened slightly. The annualized basis rates of IH and IF quarterly contracts are -3.70% and -5.50% respectively, and the annualized basis rates of IC and IM quarterly contracts are -11.40% and -14.30% respectively. In terms of hedging, short hedging may consider quarterly and monthly contracts. ? Yesterday, the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated in a narrow range and closed up 0.18%. The turnover of the two markets decreased for 7 consecutive trading days. This week, the market was mainly adjusted in a narrow range, and the rotation of sectors was relatively frequent, but the overall amplitude of the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shenzhen Component Index was relatively small. The turnover of the two markets decreased for 7 consecutive trading days, which may indicate that the short-term market game has slowed down, and the structural adjustment may have been basically completed. Recently, various major policies have been continuously introduced, and fiscal policies have been put forward. Some ultra-long-term government bonds will be issued in advance in the third quarter, and the PMI data released recently have exceeded expectations. In the short term, a number of "anti-involution" policies have been introduced to maintain the stable operation of various markets. The "anti-involution" policy is more about establishing a long-term and stable market mechanism and suppressing some vicious competition in the current market. Boosted by policies, market sentiment and risk appetite are expected to continue to recover, driving the stock index to strengthen in the short term. IC and IM are expected to continue to rise due to sentiment, and it is recommended to hold long positions.

Stock index options: On the last trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.18%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.17%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.9%, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 rose 0.24%, the CSI 300 rose 0.62%, the Shanghai 50 rose 0.07%, the CSI 500 rose 0.5%, the CSI 1000 rose 0.53%, and the Shenzhen 100ETF rose 1.58%. The turnover of the two markets was 1,309.734 billion yuan, a decrease of about 67.2 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Among the Shenwan first-level industries, the best performing industries were: electronics (1.69%), power equipment (1.38%), and pharmaceuticals and biology (1.35%). The worst performing industries were: steel (-0.13%), transportation (-0.28%), and coal (-1.16%). In June, both the official manufacturing PMI and Caixin PMI showed signs of improvement. With the active efforts of domestic policies and the support of loose liquidity, market risk appetite is expected to improve further, and the stock index may fluctuate and strengthen. In terms of strategy, medium-term option covered call portfolios can continue to be held; in the short term, the current option implied volatility has a certain premium compared to the historical volatility, but considering that the implied volatility is already in a low range, the volatility seller strategy needs to pay attention to controlling positions to prevent volatility amplification risks.

Industrial silicon: The operation is gradually stabilizing, the market's expectations for the policy side are gradually digested, and the trading heat has declined. Despite the strong policy expectations, the current fundamental support for industrial silicon is still insufficient. After the production cuts, large factories have started a small furnace operation. In addition, some factories in Yunnan have started production. The supply is still sufficient, while the demand remains sluggish for the time being. Overall, the market sentiment has changed rapidly recently, especially the high expectations for macroeconomic control policies, but the supply and demand of industrial silicon is still difficult to be optimistic. It is expected that the market outlook for industrial silicon will show a trend of rising and falling. In terms of operation, short at highs, the reference range of SI2509 contract is 7800-8300 yuan/ton.

Copper: Overnight, the main Shanghai copper price was consolidated to 80,540 yuan, and the London copper price slightly adjusted to around 9,950 US dollars. Macro neutral. The US ISM non-manufacturing PMI rebounded to 50.8, and the month-on-month increase in factory orders in May was the largest increase since 2014. The overseas economy is still resilient. However, the number of new non-farm employment in the United States in June exceeded expectations by 147,000, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1%. The strong employment market dispelled the bet on a rate cut in July, and the expectation of a rate cut in September also cooled down, and the copper price fell slightly. The fundamentals are neutral and bullish. Yesterday, the copper warehouse receipts of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 994 tons to 24,000 tons, and the LME copper accumulated by 1,075 tons to 94,000 tons. According to SMM, domestic refined copper rod enterprises started to reduce production after the copper price broke through the integer mark. The copper warehouse receipts of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 324 tons to 25,000 tons, and the LME copper accumulated by 2,000 tons to 93,000 tons. Overall, the marginal improvement in macro sentiment and the recent tight spot supply at home and abroad have supported copper prices. It is expected that copper prices will fluctuate and strengthen in the short term, but the negative feedback of the terminal off-season and high prices on demand may limit the upward trend. Be cautious about chasing high prices. Today, the main operating range of Shanghai copper is 79,800-81,000 yuan/ton. In terms of strategy, the range is the main one, and the profit will be gradually stopped at the high point.

Shanghai Lead: Shanghai Lead fluctuated strongly overnight. From a fundamental perspective, on the primary side, except for a few refineries that continue maintenance, the production of other refineries is basically stable. The upward trend of lead prices has increased the profit recovery of recycled refineries and increased expectations for resumption of production. On the recycling side, the supply of scrap batteries is still relatively tight, but the recycling lead companies are not very receptive to the increase in raw material prices. The recent arrival of raw materials is still acceptable, and the long-term orders that were previously reluctant to sell have accumulated in-plant inventory. On the demand side, the immediate price-cutting sentiment of battery companies is significant, and the overall trading still maintains rigid demand. Overall, there is an expectation of improvement in consumption, but there is also room for recycling to increase production. Pay attention to the degree of actual consumption realization.

Shanghai zinc: Shanghai zinc fluctuated weakly overnight. On the macro level, the US non-farm performance in June exceeded expectations, the expectation of interest rate cuts cooled, and the US dollar remained strong. From a fundamental perspective, in terms of raw materials, domestic and foreign mines have resumed normal output, processing fees continue to rise, and transaction prices of 4,000 yuan/ton of metal have appeared in many places. While profits are rising, supply continues to increase. According to Baichuan Yingfu's rough estimate in July, the month-on-month increase may reach 10,000 tons. On the demand side, Guangdong and Tianjin were affected by the sluggish demand in the off-season, and the premium continued to slide. Yesterday, the social inventory continued to accumulate. Overall, the current fundamental situation is difficult to form a driving force for the upward movement of zinc prices. It is expected that zinc prices will be under pressure as a whole.

Nickel and stainless steel: In the macro aspect, the United States voted to pass the "Big and Beautiful Act"; the U.S. non-farm payrolls data in June exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate fell, which may partially boost the Fed's expectations of rate cuts. From a fundamental perspective, the supply of nickel ore in Indonesia is still tight, and there is cost support for nickel prices in the short term, but as the rainy season effect weakens, the support from the mine end may weaken; from the perspective of supply and demand, the nickel market is difficult to rebound under the pressure of excess, and the market may continue to fluctuate weakly. In terms of stainless steel, the spot market is not very prosperous in the off-season, and the price of raw materials continues to weaken, which makes the pressure on stainless steel still relatively large, but affected by the expectation of production cuts, the stainless steel futures price has partially rebounded recently. In terms of operation, Shanghai nickel is temporarily on the sidelines, and stainless steel is shorted at highs. The reference range of Shanghai nickel 2508 is 116,000-125,000 yuan/ton. The reference range of SS2508 is 12,400-13,000 yuan/ton.

Rubber: On Thursday, domestic full latex was 14,000 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous day; Thailand No. 20 mixed rubber was 13,900 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous day. Raw material side: Yesterday, Thai rubber closed at 54.5 baht/kg, down 0.5 baht/kg from the previous day; Thai cup rubber closed at 48.55 baht/kg, up 0.35 baht/kg from the previous day; Yunnan rubber closed at 13.6 yuan/kg, flat from the previous day; Hainan rubber closed at 12.6 yuan/kg, up 0.2 yuan/kg from the previous day. As of June 29, 2025, China's social inventory of natural rubber was 1.293 million tons, an increase of 7,000 tons from the previous month, an increase of 0.6%. China's total social inventory of dark rubber was 789,000 tons, an increase of 1.2% from the previous month. Among them, Qingdao spot inventory increased by 2.4%; Yunnan decreased by 1.3%; Vietnam 10# increased by 6%; NR inventory subtotal decreased by 12%. China's total social inventory of light-colored rubber was 505,000 tons, down 0.3% month-on-month. Among them, old full latex decreased by 1.6% month-on-month, 3L increased by 1.7% month-on-month, and RU inventory subtotal increased by 1%. Viewpoint: As the rainy season in the main producing countries in Southeast Asia is coming to an end, in the absence of persistent drought this year, the condition of rubber trees is expected to be good. At the end of the rainy season, the supply is expected to increase normally. Overall, the supply in the recent period and the past six months is in line with expectations. From the demand side, the production activities of domestic downstream industries still maintain a weak qualitative state (Note: the current weak time point state does not represent a dynamic process of weakening in the future), and the overall changes are limited. Therefore, from the perspective of supply and demand balance, the balance sheet has not been strongly driven, corresponding to the short-term fluctuation of unilateral prices. Looking back, in the repeated game between tariff policies and interest rate cut expectations, the divergence in demand expectations will become more intense, and it is expected that the market will still see frequent upper and lower shadows. Before expectations can be improved, RU&NR is expected to remain weak.

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