U.S. non-farm data was stronger than expected, gold prices rebounded and are expected to end two weeks of decline
2025-07-04 13:46:52
Gold prices regained positive momentum in Asian trading on Friday, reversing some of the losses in the previous session caused by non-farm data.
The U.S. non-farm payrolls for June increased by 147,000, far exceeding the market expectation of 111,000, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped from 4.2% to 4.1%. This data weakened the market's expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates at its July meeting, and the high risk appetite in the market put short-term pressure on gold.
However, market concerns about the long-term fiscal situation of the United States have re-heated. According to market surveys, the Congressional Budget Office pointed out that President Trump’s new tax reform and spending bill will increase federal debt by $3.4 trillion in the future. This has increased pressure on the dollar and provided safe-haven support for gold.
At the same time, Trump announced that he would notify relevant trading partners of the current tariff arrangements before July 9, which once again fueled market concerns about trade.
In addition, the July 4 holiday in the United States led to a decline in trading volume, and the weakened liquidity made investors more cautious after the release of key data. The market lacked a clear direction, but it also reduced the risk of further downside. Supported by multiple fundamental factors, gold prices are expected to end their two-week decline.
From a technical perspective, gold prices need to break through the 100-period moving average to establish a further upward trend. The 100-period simple moving average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart is currently located in the $3,352 to $3,355 range, which constitutes a key resistance point. If it breaks through this level, it is expected to challenge the $3,365-3,366 level and further hit the $3,400 round mark.
On the downside, the initial support is at $3,326-3,325, with key support at $3,311-3,310 and $3,300. If it falls below $3,300, it may trigger more technical selling pressure, with the target pointing to the $3,270 level, or even a retracement to the monthly low of $3,248.
Market analysts pointed out: "Although the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates in the short term, the widening fiscal deficit and trade tensions provide medium-term support for gold."
Editor's opinion:
Although the non-farm data has suppressed expectations of short-term interest rate cuts, the fiscal deficit and international trade pressures facing the US dollar have not eased, and the medium- and long-term value of gold as a safe-haven asset remains solid.
After the holiday, market liquidity will return, and the gold price trend may usher in a directional breakthrough. Investors can pay attention to whether the gold price can effectively break through the resistance level of $3,355, which is a key signal for the medium-term strength of gold.
The U.S. non-farm payrolls for June increased by 147,000, far exceeding the market expectation of 111,000, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped from 4.2% to 4.1%. This data weakened the market's expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates at its July meeting, and the high risk appetite in the market put short-term pressure on gold.
However, market concerns about the long-term fiscal situation of the United States have re-heated. According to market surveys, the Congressional Budget Office pointed out that President Trump’s new tax reform and spending bill will increase federal debt by $3.4 trillion in the future. This has increased pressure on the dollar and provided safe-haven support for gold.
At the same time, Trump announced that he would notify relevant trading partners of the current tariff arrangements before July 9, which once again fueled market concerns about trade.
In addition, the July 4 holiday in the United States led to a decline in trading volume, and the weakened liquidity made investors more cautious after the release of key data. The market lacked a clear direction, but it also reduced the risk of further downside. Supported by multiple fundamental factors, gold prices are expected to end their two-week decline.
From a technical perspective, gold prices need to break through the 100-period moving average to establish a further upward trend. The 100-period simple moving average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart is currently located in the $3,352 to $3,355 range, which constitutes a key resistance point. If it breaks through this level, it is expected to challenge the $3,365-3,366 level and further hit the $3,400 round mark.
On the downside, the initial support is at $3,326-3,325, with key support at $3,311-3,310 and $3,300. If it falls below $3,300, it may trigger more technical selling pressure, with the target pointing to the $3,270 level, or even a retracement to the monthly low of $3,248.
Market analysts pointed out: "Although the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates in the short term, the widening fiscal deficit and trade tensions provide medium-term support for gold."
Editor's opinion:
Although the non-farm data has suppressed expectations of short-term interest rate cuts, the fiscal deficit and international trade pressures facing the US dollar have not eased, and the medium- and long-term value of gold as a safe-haven asset remains solid.
After the holiday, market liquidity will return, and the gold price trend may usher in a directional breakthrough. Investors can pay attention to whether the gold price can effectively break through the resistance level of $3,355, which is a key signal for the medium-term strength of gold.
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
