Definition

A Brief Introduction to the USDA's WASDE Report: The USDA's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Projections (WASDE) report is a monthly updated annual forecast for crops, pork, beef, poultry, and dairy products in the United States, Brazil, Argentina, and globally. The USDA typically reports in three years: the year before last, the previous year, and the latest year. The year for "pork, beef, poultry, and dairy products" is based on the "calendar year," while the year for "crops," due to their seasonal planting and harvesting characteristics, is based on the "market year." The USDA's WASDE report switches to forecasting the "next year" starting in May each year. Specifically, the crop forecasts switch to the "next market year" starting in May, while the pork, beef, poultry, and red meat forecasts switch to the "next calendar year." For example, the "latest market year forecast" released in mid-April 2024 is for the 2023/24 crop year, while the "latest market year" data released at midnight on May 11, 2024, corresponds to the 2024/25 crop year. Since spring planting is already underway in the United States in May, while planting will not begin for several months in Brazil and Argentina in the Southern Hemisphere, and Brazil and Argentina have a "market year" from October of the current year to September of the following year, the WASDE report states that "these forecasts are highly tentative."

Impact on Market

Why It Matters

Inventory is a major reference point for supply data. Higher inventory suggests a larger supply, which theoretically is bearish for wheat prices. However, the impact of old grain inventory is less than that of new grain inventory. FX678 and 1QH remind you: According to parameters from authoritative international media, the correlation between this indicator and [other factors] is 30%.

Released By

U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)