2026-04-09 Thursday
2026-04-09
21:10:12
[US Buyers Defy Trend and Rush into Spanish Luxury Homes; Trump-Era Anxiety Fuels Transoceanic Safe-Haven Trend] ⑴ Data released Thursday by the Spanish General Council of Notaries shows that US citizens' home purchases in Spain have increased by 3% in 2025, while overall foreign buyer purchases have declined during the same period. US buyers are rapidly entering the Iberian Peninsula's high-end residential market. ⑵ Over the past six years, US buyers' property transactions in Spain have more than doubled, a stark contrast to the 16% decline in British buyers during the same period. Some luxury real estate agencies have seen their US clients surpass those of the British, becoming the largest group. ⑶ Real estate industry insiders cite concerns stemming from Trump's policies as a key driver of this wave of US home purchases. Hispanic Americans have shown particular interest in Spain, viewing it as a permanent residence or alternative safe haven. ⑷ US buyers demonstrate significantly stronger purchasing power in the high-end segment, with an average purchase price of €3,501 per square meter, 29% higher than the average for foreign buyers and nearly double the price paid by Spanish residents. (5) Real estate developer GILMAR disclosed that American buyers surpassed British buyers last year to become the largest foreign customer group in the Costa del Sol region. Luxury real estate company Dils Lucas Fox also stated that American customers have jumped to become the second largest source of foreign buyers after the UK. (6) The strong US dollar provided exchange rate support for this round of home purchases, but analysts believe that even if the dollar weakens against the euro, the pursuit of quality of life, considerations of safety and environment, and the demand for diversified asset allocation will still support the resilience of the underlying demand of American buyers. (7) Reveca Caballero, head of GILMAR's international department in Madrid, said that the core motivations for American customers to purchase property in Spain include the attractiveness of the Spanish lifestyle, the safe and livable environment, and the desire to diversify their overseas asset allocation in the context of disagreement with the domestic political climate.
21:01:23
[The Ceasefire Celebration Cannot Mask the Aftermath: Oil Prices Plunge 40%, Still Significantly Higher Than Pre-War Levels] ⑴ Columnist Jamie McGuire points out that the global market's relief-driven rebound and oil price plunge triggered by the ceasefire agreement are not surprising, but the economic landscape after the initial euphoria dissipates will be far more severe than investors currently believe. ⑵ Even disregarding the real risk of the two-week ceasefire agreement breaking down and oil prices returning to above $100 per barrel, the economic damage caused by the past six weeks of war will last for a considerable period. ⑶ The Nasdaq index returned to its pre-February 28th level before the US-Israel attack on Iran on Wednesday, and the S&P 500 index was similar, with bargain hunters once again pulling Wall Street back from the series of shocks. ⑷ TD Securities strategists warn that normalcy will be drastically different from pre-war levels, and the normalization process for energy supply, inflation, growth, and monetary policy will still take several months to become clear. (5) The decline in gasoline, jet fuel, utility, and fertilizer prices over the next six weeks is unlikely to match the surge of the previous six weeks. Households and businesses will face energy costs far exceeding those of February 27th, inevitably putting pressure on spending and profits. (6) Although US crude oil futures have fallen 20% from their wartime peak last month, and recorded their largest single-day drop in five years on Wednesday, they are still 40% higher than pre-war levels and about 60% higher than the same period last year. This base effect poses a continued threat to the overall inflation outlook. (7) As energy costs are gradually passed on to utility, food, and manufactured goods prices, the US inflation rate this year is unlikely to consistently fall below 3%, and the probability of reaching 4% is higher than the possibility of falling back to the Fed's 2% target. (8) Experts estimate that at least 10 million barrels of crude oil per day would need to pass through the Strait of Hormuz to provide substantial relief to oil prices, i.e., restore them to half of pre-war levels, a scenario unlikely to materialize in the short term. (9) Stagflationary pressures will be significantly stronger than before the war. Governmental fiscal situations are deteriorating under the dual pressure of crisis spending and rising debt servicing costs. Persistent high policy uncertainty is diminishing central banks' willingness to cut interest rates and increasing their inclination to raise them. (10) Stuart Kaiser, head of equity trading strategy at Citigroup, frankly stated that he would not chase further gains in the S&P 500. Given the current volatile economic landscape, remaining cautious is the wise choice.
21:00:04
Russia's gold and foreign exchange reserves for the week ending April 3
Previous
:
7554
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
7675
Previous
20:41:32
[US Initial Jobless Claims Rise Moderately, But Employment Stagnation Remains a Double-Edged Sword] ⑴ Data released by the US Department of Labor on Thursday showed that seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims for the week ending April 4 increased by 16,000 to 219,000, slightly higher than the 210,000 expected by surveys, but still at historically low levels. ⑵ The low layoff rate continues to provide a floor for the labor market. So far, there are no signs that employers have initiated layoffs due to the oil price shock caused by the US-Israel war with Iran, and the resilience of the job market exceeds previous market concerns. ⑶ Although non-farm payrolls rebounded by 178,000 in March, the median duration of unemployment climbed to 11.4 weeks, the longest in nearly four and a half years, and the labor market is deeply mired in what economists call a stalemate of low hiring and low layoffs. ⑷ Uncertainty stemming from Trump's tariff rhetoric and large-scale deportation policies is considered the core trigger for this round of hiring freezes. Companies tend to freeze new jobs rather than lay off existing employees before the macroeconomic outlook becomes clearer. (5) The number of continuing jobless claims decreased by 38,000 to 1.794 million in the week ending March 28. However, this decline in continuing claims was partly due to unemployed individuals exiting the statistical scope after exhausting the 26-week claim period, rather than an actual improvement in the employment situation. (6) Young adults lacking work experience were most severely impacted by the labor market downturn, as they typically do not qualify for unemployment benefits. The actual extent of unemployment may be systematically underestimated by official data. (7) The minutes of the Fed's March meeting showed that more and more policymakers believed that interest rate hikes might be necessary to combat inflation. The modest rebound in initial jobless claims is not enough to change the wait-and-see attitude of policymakers. However, if the low employment situation continues to erode residents' income expectations, the foundation of consumer resilience will face the risk of gradual erosion.
20:41:14
[Mexico's Inflation Shows Divergence: War Premium Pushes Up Overall Readings but Cannot Mask Core Slowing] ⑴ Data from Mexico's National Institute of Statistics and Censuses shows that, influenced by the war with Iran pushing up global energy costs, the overall consumer price index (CPI) rose 4.59% year-on-year in March. While lower than the median analyst forecast of 4.64%, it was significantly faster than February's 4.02%. ⑵ Core inflation, excluding volatile food and fuel prices, slowed to 4.45% year-on-year, lower than February's 4.50% and the median analyst forecast of 4.47%, indicating a marginal weakening of core price momentum. ⑶ Sub-items showed significant divergence. Tomatoes, airfares, and food prices saw the largest increases, while internet communication packages, eggs, and pork prices recorded the largest decreases. This mixed pattern within the consumer basket reflects an uneven recovery on the demand side. ⑷ Although soaring oil prices exacerbated imported inflationary pressures, the Mexican central bank's assessment of the war's impact focused more on the downside risks to the economy, believing that the drag on local economic growth from geopolitical conflict might outweigh the transmission of inflation. (5) Analysts point out that the divergence between overall inflation and core inflation has put the central bank's monetary policy in a dilemma. Concerns about economic weakness limit the room for interest rate hikes, while sticky energy costs restrict the option of interest rate cuts. Policy rates will most likely remain unchanged as the central bank observes the situation.
20:41:07
U.S. net export sales as of April 2 - Total wheat for two years -USDA weekly
Previous
:
29.64
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
25.42
Previous
20:40:48
Net export sales of soybean oil in the United States as of April 2 - total for two years -USDA weekly
Previous
:
0.11
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
-0.16
Previous
20:40:32
U.S. net export sales as of April 2 - Total soybean meal for two years -USDA weekly
Previous
:
37.74
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
36.77
Previous
20:40:10
U.S. net export sales as of April 2 - Soybean total for two years -USDA weekly
Previous
:
35.33
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
29.54
Previous
20:39:45
U.S. net export sales as of April 2 - Corn total for two years -USDA weekly
Previous
:
125.20
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
137.28
Previous
20:39:26
U.S. net export sales as of April 2 - wheat for the second year -USDA weekly
Previous
:
27.28
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
9.07
Previous
20:38:30
U.S. net export sales as of April 2 - Soybean oil for the second year -USDA weekly
Previous
:
0
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
0
Previous
20:38:05
U.S. net export sales as of April 2 - Soybean meal for the second year -USDA weekly
Previous
:
0.02
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
0.40
Previous
20:37:36
U.S. net export sales as of April 2 - Soybeans for the second year -USDA weekly
Previous
:
0
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
0
Previous
20:37:18
U.S. net export sales as of April 2 - Corn for the second year -USDA weekly
Previous
:
10.26
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
1.14
Previous
20:37:01
U.S. net export sales as of April 2 - total pork -USDA weekly
Previous
:
5.30
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
3.13
Previous
20:36:48
U.S. net export sales as of April 2 - cotton for the current year -USDA weekly
Previous
:
37.15
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
31.96
Previous
20:36:30
U.S. net export sales as of April 2 - total beef -USDA weekly
Previous
:
1.19
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
1.74
Previous
20:35:55
U.S. net export sales as of April 2 - wheat for the current year -USDA weekly
Previous
:
2.35
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
16.36
Previous
20:35:26
U.S. net export sales as of April 2 - Soybean oil for the current year -USDA weekly
Previous
:
0.11
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
0
Previous
20:34:56
U.S. net export sales as of April 2 - Soybean meal for the current year -USDA weekly
Previous
:
37.72
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
36.77
Previous
20:34:17
U.S. net export sales as of April 2 - soybeans for the current year -USDA weekly
Previous
:
35.33
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
29.54
Previous
20:34:04
U.S. net export sales as of April 2 - Corn for the current year -USDA weekly
Previous
:
114.94
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
136.13
Previous
20:33:57
[US PCE Inflation Meets Expectations Across the Board; Core Indicators Remain Sticky, Testing the Narrative of Interest Rate Cuts] ⑴ The overall US PCE price index rose 0.4% month-on-month in February, in line with market expectations, compared to 0.3% previously; the year-on-year increase remained stable at 2.8%, also fully in line with expectations and unchanged from the previous month. ⑵ The core PCE price index, excluding food and energy, also recorded a 0.4% month-on-month increase, in line with expectations and unchanged from the previous month; the year-on-year increase slightly declined to 3.0%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous 3.1%, but still stubbornly above the Fed's 2% policy target. ⑶ Further excluding the housing component, the core PCE showed that the price index excluding food, energy, and housing rose 0.4% month-on-month, unchanged from the previous month, indicating that the underlying inflationary pressures other than housing costs have not shown signs of easing. ⑷ The PCE price index for services, excluding energy and housing, rose only 0.2% month-on-month, a significant cooling from 0.5% in January, indicating a marginal weakening of inflationary momentum on the service side, one of the few signs of easing in the inflation landscape. (5) Analysts point out that although the core year-on-year reading has slightly declined, the annualized rate of increase of 0.4% month-on-month is still close to 5%. Coupled with the fact that the lagged transmission of the Middle East situation's impact on oil prices to the March data has not yet been reflected, the Federal Reserve's confidence in a sustained return of inflation to its target is unlikely to be rebuilt in the short term. (6) After the data release, the market's pricing of the Federal Reserve's interest rate path remained largely unchanged. Expectations for rate cuts are still constrained by both inflation stickiness and geopolitical premiums. The focus has quickly shifted to whether the upcoming March CPI report can provide clearer evidence of an inflation turning point.
20:33:48
The final reading of the quarterly rate of the U.S. GDP price index for the fourth quarter
Previous
:
3.80%
Forecast
:
3.80%
Published Value
3.70%
Previous
20:33:47
New pork export sales in the United States until April 2nd -USDA Weekly
Previous
:
5.52
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
3.31
Previous
20:33:14
USDA Weekly New beef export sales in the United States as of April 2
Previous
:
1.51
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
1.86
Previous
20:32:55
USDA Weekly New wheat export sales in the United States as of April 2
Previous
:
17.57
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
18.16
Previous
20:32:09
New soybean export sales in the United States as of April 2nd -USDA Weekly
Previous
:
36.66
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
30.48
Previous
20:31:49
New corn export sales in the United States as of April 2nd -USDA Weekly
Previous
:
122.52
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
145.31
Previous
20:30:18
U.S. personal spending monthly rate for February
Previous
:
0.40%
Forecast
:
0.50%
Published Value
0.50%
Previous
20:30:18
Monthly rate of personal income in the United States in February
Previous
:
0.40%
Forecast
:
0.30%
Published Value
-0.10%
Previous
20:30:18
The final reading of the annualized quarterly rate of consumer spending in the United States for the fourth quarter
Previous
:
2%
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
1.90%
Previous
20:30:18
The final reading of the annualized quarterly rate of the core PCE price index in the United States for the fourth quarter
Previous
:
2.70%
Forecast
:
2.70%
Published Value
2.70%
Previous
20:30:16
The monthly rate of real personal consumption expenditure in the United States in February
Previous
:
0.10%
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
0.10%
Previous
20:30:16
The quarter-on-quarter rate of the U.S. fourth-quarter GDP deflator - seasonally adjusted final value
Previous
:
3.80%
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
3.70%
Previous
20:30:14
Preliminary estimate of the annualized quarter-on-quarter rate of corporate earnings in the United States for the fourth quarter
Previous
:
4.40%
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
5.70%
Previous
20:30:14
The monthly rate of the core PCE price index in the United States for February
Previous
:
0.40%
Forecast
:
0.40%
Published Value
0.40%
Previous
20:30:14
The monthly rate of the US PCE price index for February
Previous
:
0.30%
Forecast
:
0.40%
Published Value
0.40%
Previous
20:30:14
The year-on-year rate of the core PCE price index in the United States for February
Previous
:
3.10%
Forecast
:
3%
Published Value
3%
Previous
20:30:14
The annual rate of the PCE price index in the United States for February
Previous
:
2.80%
Forecast
:
2.80%
Published Value
2.80%
Previous
20:30:14
The final reading of the annualized quarter-on-quarter rate of final sales in the United States for the fourth quarter
Previous
:
0.40%
Forecast
:
0.40%
Published Value
0.30%
Previous
20:30:09
The final reading of the annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the United States for the fourth quarter
Previous
:
0.70%
Forecast
:
0.70%
Published Value
0.50%
Previous
20:30:09
The final reading of the annualized quarterly rate of the US PCE price index for the fourth quarter
Previous
:
2.90%
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
2.90%
Previous
20:30:05
The four-week average of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending April 4
Previous
:
20.78
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
20.95
Previous
20:30:05
The number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending April 4
Previous
:
20.20
Forecast
:
21
Published Value
21.90
Previous
20:30:05
The number of Americans continuing to claim unemployment benefits for the week ending March 29
Previous
:
184.10
Forecast
:
184
Published Value
179.40
Previous
20:29:34
U.S. personal spending monthly rate for February
Previous
:
0.40%
Forecast
:
0.50%
Published Value
0.40%
Previous
20:22:42
[Caixin Futures: Palm Oil Shows Weakness and Volatility, Soybean Meal Recommended to Sell on Rallies] ⑴ Palm Oil: Shows weakness and volatility. Yesterday's ceasefire agreement significantly cooled the market, shifting the main trading focus to price negotiations, but underlying risks remain. The conditions for a reversal in the crude oil trend are not yet sufficient. Technically, edible oils have broken below the 20-day moving average, reaching the lower edge of the trading range, but have not continued to fall, indicating ongoing disagreement. Currently, we are in a transitional period between bullish and bearish trends, requiring further observation of market changes before formulating trading strategies. Yesterday, palm oil traders and downstream users made large-scale purchases, leading to a rebound in spot prices today: Guangdong 24-degree palm oil rose 30 yuan to 9530 yuan, soybean oil fell 20 yuan to 8820 yuan, and Jiangsu genetically modified rapeseed oil rose 10 yuan to 9990 yuan. ⑵ Soybean Meal: Sell on rallies. The surge in crude oil prices has driven up vegetable oil prices, consequently increasing the cost of imported soybeans. Domestically, soybean imports gradually recovered after April. Based on shipping schedules, soybean arrivals in May are estimated at 11.5 million tons, and in June at 11 million tons, leading to a surge in supply pressure. Shorting on rallies is recommended. (3) Corn: Wait and see for now. The relatively low inventory at northern ports is the main reason for the strong corn price, but the release of policy grain, wheat, and rice has a certain restraining effect on corn price increases. Demand is diverging. Feed demand is weakening due to weaker prices of mainstream livestock products, resulting in low enthusiasm for stockpiling by feed mills and farms. However, strong demand for corn processing remains strong. Corn prices are expected to remain high in the short term, but the increase may be limited. (4) Live Pigs: Shorting on rallies is recommended. Live pig spot prices continue to weaken, and prices are expected to continue to decline tomorrow. The main logic is that short-term supply pressure continues to ease, with previously accumulated large-weight pigs being gradually released for slaughter. Coupled with a relatively high slaughter weight, the market supply of live pigs is ample, and current terminal demand is insufficient, resulting in low efficiency and a supply-demand imbalance. Looking ahead, although the theoretical number of live pigs slaughtered in April and May will slightly decrease month-on-month due to signs of second-generation pigs entering the market after the Lunar New Year, the current slaughter weight is relatively high, and coupled with the expectation of second-generation pigs being slaughtered, the price trend in April and May is expected to remain unfavorable. It is recommended to sell on rallies. (5) Eggs: Buy on dips. The egg market is currently in a transitional period dominated by rising feed costs and marginal easing of supply pressure. On the one hand, rising corn and soybean meal prices have directly increased the cost of raising laying hens, with the feed cost per kilogram of eggs reaching around 3.5 yuan/kilogram. On the other hand, although the current number of laying hens in production remains high, the worst may have passed. Therefore, the underlying logic for egg prices is cost support and decreased supply coupled with increased demand. Prices are expected to rise moderately, but the high inventory level limits the potential for further increases.
20:22:24
[Caixin Futures: Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Glass, and Soda Ash Trading with a Slight Weakness] ⑴ Crude Oil: High-level fluctuations. Shortly after the temporary ceasefire agreement between the US, Israel, and Iran, Israel attacked Lebanon, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps released a map of safe passage routes through the Strait of Hormuz, and Trump stated that US troops remain stationed in Iran, threatening "fire" if violations are violated. The US-Iran negotiations, originally scheduled to begin on April 10 in Islamabad, face uncertainty. The short-term geopolitical game has shifted from "war" to "diplomacy," causing significant market fluctuations. Short-term high-level fluctuations in the energy and chemical sector are expected. ⑵ Fuel Oil: High-level weakness with a slight fluctuation. During the war, Middle Eastern infrastructure and oil facilities were attacked, leading to production cuts by oil-producing countries. China has a high dependence on imported high-sulfur fuel oil, with imports from Iran accounting for 20% of domestic imports. Shortly after the temporary ceasefire agreement between the US, Israel, and Iran, Iran restricted passage through the Strait, Israel attacked Lebanon, and Trump issued military threats. Geopolitical sentiment has shifted significantly, and short-term high-level fluctuations are expected. ⑶ Glass: Slightly weak. Market sentiment was weak, with companies primarily focused on digesting inventory. Daily industry output has slightly rebounded to 145,500 tons. Weekly inventory increased by 2.29% week-on-week and 15.54% year-on-year. Overall, orders for deep-processing plants remain weak, and the increase in order days is limited. Low supply and rising energy costs provide some support for prices, but weak demand expectations suggest prices will fluctuate widely without significant drivers. (4) Soda Ash: Weak. The domestic soda ash market was stable today, with moderate trading activity. Soda ash plant operations saw narrow fluctuations, with some reducing production, leading to a downward trend in supply. Weekly total soda ash inventory was 1.874 million tons, down 12,100 tons from last Thursday, while social inventory remained above 350,000 tons, an increase of over 10,000 tons. Futures-spot basis offers: Hebei warehouse delivery 05-20, Shahe 05+20, Hubei warehouse delivery 05+30, Inner Mongolia plant delivery 05-280. Overall, the medium-term supply is expected to be ample, with a weak and volatile outlook. (5) Caustic soda: Slightly weak fluctuations. Today, the price of low-degree caustic soda in Shandong was generally stable, with some companies experiencing price corrections due to warehouse receipts, and some high-priced companies slowing down shipments, leading to price declines. (6) Methanol: High-level fluctuations. Today, the spot price in Taicang was 3365, up 10, and the price in the northern part of Inner Mongolia was 2607.5, up 22.5. The near-term basis of the methanol market in Taicang, Jiangsu remained stable, while the far-term basis strengthened, indicating active demand for swaps. This week, the sample inventory of methanol at ports decreased by 0.85 million tons compared to the previous period, a decrease of 0.82% week-on-week, which was lower than expected. The shrinking demand for olefins also became a factor suppressing inventory reduction, and the weakening demand limited the upside potential. However, the situation in Iran has not eased, and imports continue to shrink. In addition, there is uncertainty in the US-Iran negotiations, and the market logic has changed drastically. However, the main contract saw a significant reduction in open interest, and short-term fluctuations are expected.
20:21:35
[Caixin Futures: Most Non-ferrous and Precious Metals Trade in Fluctuations, Lithium Carbonate Trends Downward] ⑴ Shanghai Copper: Trading in fluctuations. Geopolitically, the US-Iran ceasefire showed cracks from its initial implementation. The Israeli Prime Minister's Office clarified that Lebanon was not within the ceasefire area and continued to strike Hezbollah militants in southern Lebanon. Iran also continued its missile and drone attacks on the UAE and other Gulf countries. The market corrected yesterday's optimistic expectations, and copper prices shifted slightly downward. Fundamentals have improved somewhat, with a turning point in domestic inventory reduction, providing support for bargain hunting. However, caution is still needed. The US does not accept Iran's 10 ceasefire terms, and Iran may not approve signing the ceasefire agreement, potentially leading to a market reversal. ⑵ Shanghai Aluminum: Trading in fluctuations. Geopolitically, the US-Iran ceasefire showed cracks from its initial implementation. The Israeli Prime Minister's Office clarified that Lebanon was not within the ceasefire area and continued to strike Hezbollah militants in southern Lebanon. Iran also continued its missile and drone attacks on the UAE and other Gulf countries. Fundamentally, the Middle East production cut crisis has eased, domestic inventories have accumulated, and downstream operations have rebounded. April is expected to enter a destocking cycle, with wide fluctuations expected. (3) Shanghai Zinc: Trading in a volatile range. Geopolitically, the US-Iran ceasefire showed cracks from its initial implementation. The Israeli Prime Minister's Office clarified that Lebanon was not included in the ceasefire and continued its operations against Hezbollah militants in southern Lebanon. Iran also continued its missile and drone attacks on the UAE and other Gulf states. (4) Precious Metals: Trading in a volatile range. Geopolitically, the US-Iran ceasefire showed cracks from its initial implementation. The Israeli Prime Minister's Office clarified that Lebanon was not included in the ceasefire and continued its operations against Hezbollah militants in southern Lebanon. Iran also continued its missile and drone attacks on the UAE and other Gulf states. The market corrected yesterday's optimistic expectations, and precious metal prices shifted slightly downward. However, caution is still needed. The US did not accept Iran's 10 ceasefire terms, and Iran may not approve signing the ceasefire agreement, potentially leading to a market reversal. (5) Lithium Carbonate: Trading in a volatile downward trend. Lithium carbonate has been trending downwards, establishing a shift from bullish to bearish patterns, with further downside potential. This round of volatile rebound lasted five days, with the high consistently capped by the 163,000 yuan level, indicating insufficient upward momentum. Today's weekly inventory data showed a significant increase of 1,453 tons, becoming a key catalyst for a market reversal, with prices weakening accordingly. In the futures market, the LC05 contract broke below the key support level of 156,000 yuan, the 20-day moving average. A gap-down opening could trigger an accelerated decline. The spot market also weakened, with SMM's battery-grade lithium carbonate spot price at 154,750 yuan/ton, down 3,900 yuan from the previous trading day; the futures closing price was 152,420 yuan, a discount of approximately 2,330 yuan to the spot price.
20:20:18
[Caixin Futures: Most Ferrous Metals Show Weak Fluctuations, Rebar, Iron Ore, and Coking Coal Under Pressure] ⑴ Steel: Weak fluctuations. Steel demand remained relatively stable, while inventory declines narrowed, indicating emerging pressure. Funding saw rebar and hot-rolled coil contract rollovers, with both long and short positions increasing significantly among the top 20 holders for the October contract. Technically, the October rebar contract is suppressed by moving averages, with resistance shifting down to 3130 and support at 3065-3080. Pig iron production continues to rise and remains high, but the increase in demand is uncertain, and inventory pressure persists. Short-term demand may decline along with cost levels, but the peak demand during the peak season remains to be seen. Neutral to low valuations may limit downside potential. ⑵ Iron Ore: Reduce short positions opportunistically. The iron ore supply and demand growth pattern was disrupted by expectations of easing negotiations between China Mining and BHP, putting pressure on the market. Both long and short positions increased among the top 20 holders for the September contract, with short positions increasing more significantly, indicating a bearish bias. Technically, the 09 contract broke below the 60-day moving average yesterday and then the 40-day moving average, potentially testing the 735-745 support level. Shipping costs have decreased due to expectations of a US-Iran ceasefire, and the medium-term easing policy remains unchanged. However, the short-term decline is significant, and pig iron production has not yet peaked, so consider reducing short positions opportunistically. ⑶ Coking Coal: Opportunistic short selling. Supply is limited due to underground factors at some mines, leading to a slight decline in overall production in producing areas. Mongolian coal customs clearance remains high. Downstream coking plants are purchasing on demand, and high pig iron prices support raw material demand, potentially limiting further declines. The top 20 long and short positions in the 05 contract increased, with short positions increasing more, indicating a bearish bias. Technically, the increased open interest in the 05 contract is putting significant downward pressure, and it may test the 1050-1065 support level in the short term. Weakening demand and delivery pressure are suppressing the near-month contract. Before the rollover, delivery logic will dominate the market; maintain a strategy of selling 05 on rallies and avoid chasing short positions. ⑷ Coking Coal: Fluctuating. Coking coal costs have decreased, and coking plant operations remain stable. Pig iron production continues to increase, and steel mills have seen inventory declines for three consecutive weeks, with restocking expectations remaining, limiting short-term supply-demand imbalances. The May contract is trading at a discount for more than one round, and a second round of coking coal price increases is imminent. Valuation supports the near-month contract, limiting downside potential, and short-term price movements will follow raw coal. (5) Manganese Silicon: Slightly weak with fluctuations. Affected by the sharp drop in crude oil and raw coal prices, bearish sentiment in the manganese silicon market has strengthened. Manufacturers still face significant cost pressures, and expectations of production cuts persist. Downstream purchases are based on immediate restocking needs, resulting in a relatively balanced supply and demand situation. Technically, the manganese silicon May contract continued its decline with reduced open interest, effectively breaking below the 40-day moving average, and may continue to test the 60-day moving average support. In terms of funding, both long and short positions in the top ten holders of the May contract decreased, with short positions decreasing more significantly.
20:05:49
[Japanese Bond Curve Flattens Unusually After Bear Steepening, Market Already Prepared for April Rate Hike] ⑴ Japanese government bonds gave back some of the previous day's gains on Thursday. The US-Iran ceasefire agreement appeared fragile due to Israel's continued airstrikes on Lebanon, coupled with news that passage through the Strait of Hormuz had not yet resumed. Futures opened down 20 basis points to 130.17. ⑵ The yield curve briefly steepened during the session, with the 10-year yield touching 2.40%, the 20-year yield climbing 4.5 basis points to 3.305%, and the 30-year yield jumping 6 basis points to 3.655%. ⑶ The Japanese Ministry of Finance auctioned new five-year bonds with a coupon rate of 1.8% on the same day. The closing rate was 1.835%, with a slight extension of 0.9 basis points at the end. The bid-to-cover ratio of 3.58 times, while lower than the previous 3.69 times, was still higher than the average of 3.34 times over the past six auctions, indicating that investors still had a willingness to buy on dips. (4) Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stated in parliament that short- and medium-term real interest rates are clearly negative, but whether his statement was intended to emphasize the continued support of loose monetary policy or to hint at a faster return to neutral interest rates remains unclear, leading to a muted reaction in the bond market. (5) In the final trading session, yields on 30-year and 40-year ultra-long-term bonds all fell back to near the previous day's closing levels, flattening the yield curve. Short- to medium-term bonds saw some support from domestic buying. (6) A trader at a Japanese brokerage pointed out that strong front-end demand indicates the market has largely priced in an April rate hike. Even if the Bank of Japan does act this month, it is unlikely to have a significant impact on the bond market. A post-hike policy rate is expected to enter a period of observation, which may actually stimulate buying. (7) Analysts believe that the Japanese bond market's sensitivity to geopolitical risks is diminishing. Investors' focus has shifted from the Hormuz situation to the Bank of Japan's April monetary policy meeting. If Kazuo Ueda chooses to remain on hold, it could trigger a sharp correction in front-end pricing of the yield curve.
20:05:05
Mexico's PPI year-on-year rate in March
Previous
:
1.10%
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
2.80%
Previous
20:05:04
Mexico's PPI monthly rate for March
Previous
:
0.20%
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
1.70%
Previous
20:04:06
[Brazilian Soybean Exports Surge 17% Year-on-Year in April, South American Supply Peak Suppresses Global Premiums and Discounts] ⑴ Data released by the Brazilian National Grain Exporters Association predicts that Brazil's soybean exports in April will reach 15.78 million tons, a significant increase of approximately 17% compared to 13.5 million tons in the same period last year, with the South American supply peak rapidly pouring into the global market. ⑵ Soybean meal exports are also expected to be strong, with April shipments projected to reach 2.71 million tons, an increase of approximately 26% compared to 2.15 million tons in the same period last year. The spillover effect of by-products continues to amplify, driven by both increased crushing capacity and efficient export logistics. ⑶ Analysts point out that with the market largely absorbing the drought-induced production reduction in Argentina and the planting area for the new US soybean crop still undetermined, Brazil's record-breaking export pace will continue to suppress global soybean premiums and discounts. ⑷ Coupled with the fact that the increased freight costs due to the Hormuz shipping risk have not yet been fully passed on to the grain trade, Brazil, with its relatively stable inland logistics and port operation capabilities, is further consolidating its dominant pricing power in the global oilseed trade.
20:02:47
Mexico's unadjusted CPI reading for March
Previous
:
144.31
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
145.54
Previous
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