Silver Forecast: 50-day moving average support is under attention, non-farm payroll data becomes the key
2025-08-01 20:25:39
Silver prices are oscillating around the 50-day moving average ($36.50) as the market awaits Friday's U.S. non-farm payroll report (NFP) and reacts to the continued strength of the U.S. dollar. Silver has fallen for the third consecutive trading day, following gold's decline, but still holds the key low of $36.16 set on July 7.
A surge in the US dollar index weighs on precious metals
The US dollar index (DXY) rose to its highest level since late May, exacerbating downward pressure on dollar-denominated assets such as silver and gold. Strong US economic data and the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance have boosted the dollar, limiting any meaningful upside for precious metals. This week, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged at 4.25%-4.50% but gave no indication of a September rate cut, dashing market expectations for near-term policy easing.
The hawkish tone was also supported by better-than-expected GDP, initial jobless claims and PCE inflation data, further curbing silver's recent gains. If there is no unexpected downside in Friday's non-farm payroll report, traders believe that precious metals have limited upside in the short term.
Gold is stuck at resistance, dragging down silver
Gold's weakness has also been transmitted to silver. Gold prices have repeatedly failed to break through resistance at $3,310.48 and the 50-day moving average at $3,341.40, suggesting a short-term uptrend. However, the long-term trend remains positive above the 200-day moving average at $3,006.04. Silver tends to track gold's movements, so as long as gold's gains are limited, silver's rallies are likely to be shallow and short-lived.
Geopolitical tensions offer only limited support
Trade-related news briefly boosted safe-haven demand. US President Trump's proposed tariff increases on Brazil, India, Canada, and Taiwan have cast uncertainty over global trade prospects, which could ultimately support precious metals. However, short-term price action remains driven by interest rate expectations and the US dollar.
Silver forecast: range fluctuations, support level break or downside risk
From a technical perspective, if the 50-day moving average support fails, silver may fall to $36.16 and then test $35.28. If the closing price is below $36.16, it will fall below the July support range and trigger more selling.
On the upside, a recapture of $36.50 could trigger short-covering, with the first target at $37.87 (which is the pivot level of the $39.53 to $36.21 range).
Friday's non-farm payroll data will be crucial in determining the next move. A strong report could push the dollar higher, forcing silver below key support. A weaker-than-expected reading could see bulls reclaim the $37 level. Currently, below $36.50, a defensive bias is in the short term.
At 20:17 Beijing time, spot silver was quoted at $36.433 per ounce, down 0.68%.
A surge in the US dollar index weighs on precious metals
The US dollar index (DXY) rose to its highest level since late May, exacerbating downward pressure on dollar-denominated assets such as silver and gold. Strong US economic data and the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance have boosted the dollar, limiting any meaningful upside for precious metals. This week, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged at 4.25%-4.50% but gave no indication of a September rate cut, dashing market expectations for near-term policy easing.
The hawkish tone was also supported by better-than-expected GDP, initial jobless claims and PCE inflation data, further curbing silver's recent gains. If there is no unexpected downside in Friday's non-farm payroll report, traders believe that precious metals have limited upside in the short term.
Gold is stuck at resistance, dragging down silver
Gold's weakness has also been transmitted to silver. Gold prices have repeatedly failed to break through resistance at $3,310.48 and the 50-day moving average at $3,341.40, suggesting a short-term uptrend. However, the long-term trend remains positive above the 200-day moving average at $3,006.04. Silver tends to track gold's movements, so as long as gold's gains are limited, silver's rallies are likely to be shallow and short-lived.
Geopolitical tensions offer only limited support
Trade-related news briefly boosted safe-haven demand. US President Trump's proposed tariff increases on Brazil, India, Canada, and Taiwan have cast uncertainty over global trade prospects, which could ultimately support precious metals. However, short-term price action remains driven by interest rate expectations and the US dollar.
Silver forecast: range fluctuations, support level break or downside risk
From a technical perspective, if the 50-day moving average support fails, silver may fall to $36.16 and then test $35.28. If the closing price is below $36.16, it will fall below the July support range and trigger more selling.
On the upside, a recapture of $36.50 could trigger short-covering, with the first target at $37.87 (which is the pivot level of the $39.53 to $36.21 range).
Friday's non-farm payroll data will be crucial in determining the next move. A strong report could push the dollar higher, forcing silver below key support. A weaker-than-expected reading could see bulls reclaim the $37 level. Currently, below $36.50, a defensive bias is in the short term.
At 20:17 Beijing time, spot silver was quoted at $36.433 per ounce, down 0.68%.
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
