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2025-08-01 22:06:34
[US Manufacturing Winter: The "Layoff Storm" Behind Five Consecutive Declines in the PMI] ⑴ Late evening on August 1st, Beijing time, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.0, marking the fifth consecutive month of contraction. While the New Orders Index saw a slight rebound to 47.1, it still failed to conceal the six-month contraction trend. ⑵ Even more alarming was the plummeting employment index to 43.4, its lowest level since July 2020, with factory layoffs at a rate comparable to the early stages of the pandemic. ⑶ Although the output index rose against the trend to 51.4, companies' strategy of replacing labor with machines reveals a deep distrust of demand. ⑷ Trump's tariff rhetoric is driving up raw material costs, directly squeezing profit margins. Manufacturing, which accounts for 10.2% of the US economy, is becoming a drag. ⑸ The ISM report directly pointed to "demand uncertainty" as the trigger for layoffs, hinting at the harsh reality of a disconnect between the Fed's expected rate cuts and the real economy. ⑹ As the job market, the last pillar, begins to crumble, Wall Street's "soft landing" narrative is facing a data blow.
