Citigroup raises its November gold price forecast by $3,500
2025-08-04 23:24:31
Banking giant Citigroup announced on Monday that it would raise its gold price forecast for the next three months to $3,500 an ounce from $3,300 an ounce in June.
“In the second half of 2025, U.S. economic growth and tariff-related inflation concerns will remain elevated, coupled with a weaker dollar, which will drive gold prices to a modest rise to a new all-time high,” the bank’s analysts wrote.
Citigroup also raised its forecast trading range for gold to $3,300-$3,600 per ounce from $3,100-$3,500 per ounce previously. The revision comes after the United States last week announced higher-than-expected import tariffs on several major trading partners, including Canada, India, Brazil, and Taiwan.
Citigroup said that weak U.S. labor data in the second quarter of 2025, growing concerns about the credibility of the Federal Reserve and U.S. statistical agencies, and escalating geopolitical risks caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict all provided support for its upward revision of gold expectations.
The bank estimates that total gold demand has increased by more than 33% since mid-2022, pushing gold prices almost double in the second quarter of this year.
Citi analysts pointed out that despite the high gold prices, strong investment demand, continued gold purchasing by central banks around the world, and resilient jewelry demand are important factors driving the rise in gold prices.
The optimistic outlook is a stark reversal from the bank's forecast just six weeks ago. In a mid-June report, Citi's commodity analysts lowered their gold price forecasts and warned investors that the precious metal could fall below $3,000 an ounce by the end of the year.
At the time, the bank lowered its 0-3 month gold price target to $3,300 per ounce from $3,500 previously, while also lowering its 6-12 month gold price forecast to $2,800 per ounce from $3,000.
Analysts said in June that gold's safe-haven appeal is expected to wane as economic conditions improve in 2026.
(Source of spot gold daily chart: Yihuitong)
At 23:20 Beijing time on Monday, the price of gold continued to strengthen. Shortly after the opening of the North American market, spot gold hit a new high for the day, and the latest price was US$3,373.44 per ounce, up 0.31% from the previous trading day.
“In the second half of 2025, U.S. economic growth and tariff-related inflation concerns will remain elevated, coupled with a weaker dollar, which will drive gold prices to a modest rise to a new all-time high,” the bank’s analysts wrote.
Citigroup also raised its forecast trading range for gold to $3,300-$3,600 per ounce from $3,100-$3,500 per ounce previously. The revision comes after the United States last week announced higher-than-expected import tariffs on several major trading partners, including Canada, India, Brazil, and Taiwan.
Citigroup said that weak U.S. labor data in the second quarter of 2025, growing concerns about the credibility of the Federal Reserve and U.S. statistical agencies, and escalating geopolitical risks caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict all provided support for its upward revision of gold expectations.
The bank estimates that total gold demand has increased by more than 33% since mid-2022, pushing gold prices almost double in the second quarter of this year.
Citi analysts pointed out that despite the high gold prices, strong investment demand, continued gold purchasing by central banks around the world, and resilient jewelry demand are important factors driving the rise in gold prices.
The optimistic outlook is a stark reversal from the bank's forecast just six weeks ago. In a mid-June report, Citi's commodity analysts lowered their gold price forecasts and warned investors that the precious metal could fall below $3,000 an ounce by the end of the year.
At the time, the bank lowered its 0-3 month gold price target to $3,300 per ounce from $3,500 previously, while also lowering its 6-12 month gold price forecast to $2,800 per ounce from $3,000.
Analysts said in June that gold's safe-haven appeal is expected to wane as economic conditions improve in 2026.
(Source of spot gold daily chart: Yihuitong)
At 23:20 Beijing time on Monday, the price of gold continued to strengthen. Shortly after the opening of the North American market, spot gold hit a new high for the day, and the latest price was US$3,373.44 per ounce, up 0.31% from the previous trading day.
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