August 12th Financial Breakfast: Awaiting US Inflation Report, Gold Price Stable Around 3350, Trump Nominates Next Director of the Bureau of Labor Statistics
2025-08-12 07:16:36

Focus on the day

OPEC released its monthly crude oil market report, Federal Reserve Chairman Barkin delivered a speech, and Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock held a monetary policy press conference.
stock market
Major U.S. stock indexes closed lower on Monday as investors anxiously awaited this week's inflation data to assess the outlook for interest rates and watched for progress in trade talks.
Fueling market optimism are investors’ expectations that the Federal Reserve’s recent turbulence and signs of labor market weakness could prompt the bank to adopt a dovish monetary policy stance later this year. July’s consumer inflation report is due on Tuesday, and investors expect the Fed to cut borrowing costs by about 60 basis points by the end of December, according to data compiled by LSEG.
"Inflation data is starting to reflect a more direct impact of tariffs on consumers, raising concerns that inflation will remain sticky," said Eric Teal, chief investment officer at Comerica Wealth Management. "It would take lower inflation readings and slower growth data to support the case for lower interest rates."
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 0.45% at 43,975.09, the S&P 500 fell 0.25% to 6,373.45, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.3% to 21,385.40. Nvidia and AMD shares fluctuated throughout the day, closing down 0.35% and 0.28%, respectively.
Semiconductor giants have agreed to give the U.S. government 15% of revenue from sales of their advanced chips, a U.S. official told Reuters. Analysts said the tax could hit chipmakers' profit margins and set a precedent for Washington to impose tariffs on key U.S. exports, potentially expanding beyond semiconductors.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted their strongest weekly performances in more than a month last week. Citigroup and UBS Global Research became the latest brokerages to raise their year-end targets for the benchmark S&P 500.
Micron Technology rose 4% after the company raised its fourth-quarter revenue and adjusted profit forecasts.
Intel rose 3.5% after reports that Chief Executive Officer Lip-Mo Tan, whose resignation Trump called for last week, arrived at the White House on Monday.
Gold Market
Gold prices fell on Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump said he would not impose tariffs on imported gold bars, while investors awaited a U.S. inflation report that could inform the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook.

U.S. gold futures for December delivery settled down 2.5% at $3,404.70 an ounce. Trump said in a statement on his social media account on Monday that gold would not be subject to tariffs, but gave no other details.
Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst at Kitco Metals, said the market could turn a little more bearish as this uncertainty clears up. "Traders will continue to focus on other things, which could actually be positive for gold given the prospect of a rate cut in the U.S. very soon."
Spot gold was at $3,358.33, down 1.2%.In terms of data, U.S. consumer price data will be released on Tuesday and producer price data will be released on Thursday.
Spot silver fell 1.4% to $37.78; platinum fell 0.4% to $1,326.09; and palladium rose 2.1% to $1,149.25.
Oil Market
Crude oil prices closed flat on Monday as investors looked forward to talks between the United States and Russia this week on the war in Ukraine. Brent crude futures rose 0.06% to $66.63 a barrel, while U.S. crude futures rose 0.13% to $63.96.

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Friday he will meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on August 15 to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine. The talks come as the United States ratchets up pressure on Russia, threatening harsher penalties if a peace deal is not reached.
Trump said on Monday that Ukraine and Russia must cede land to each other to end the war, and that his talks with Putin were intended to test the temperature of a possible agreement. "The recent sell-off in crude oil has paused for now as the market awaits the key meeting on Friday," StoneX analyst Alex Hodes said in a note on Monday.
Trump set a deadline of last Friday for Russia to agree to a peace deal or face secondary sanctions on its oil buyers, while Washington is pressuring India to reduce its purchases of Russian oil.
Oil prices have fallen in recent days as market participants lowered their estimates of supply disruptions, likely because the United States is imposing additional tariffs only on India and not on all buyers of Russian oil, said Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS.
UBS Group slashed its year-end Brent crude forecast to $62 a barrel from $68, citing rising South American supplies and resilient output from sanctioned nations. The bank said Indian demand has been weaker than expected recently and said it expects OPEC+ to pause production increases unless there are larger, unexpected supply disruptions.
OPEC's oil output rose further in July after an OPEC+ deal to increase production, a Reuters survey showed on Friday, although additional cuts in Iraq and drone attacks on Kurdish oil fields limited the increase.
foreign exchange market
The dollar strengthened broadly on Monday ahead of the release of U.S. inflation data on Tuesday, which could help determine whether the Federal Reserve cuts borrowing costs next month.

The dollar index rose 0.3% to 98.52, having fallen 0.4% last week. USD/JPY rose 0.2% to 148.085. Japanese markets were closed on Monday for a holiday.
The euro fell 0.3% to $1.16123, while the pound sterling fell 0.2% to $1.34335. "The dollar strengthened slightly against all major currencies, although overall moves were muted," said Michael Brown, market analyst at London-based online broker Pepperstone. "A very mildly hawkish repricing of Fed policy expectations appears to be driving the dollar's strength. This move is likely due to market participants adjusting some of their positions ahead of the risks posed by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) release."
The dollar weakened last week as weak U.S. jobs and manufacturing data prompted investors to adjust their expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut. Fed officials, growing increasingly uneasy about the labor market, have indicated they are open to a rate cut as soon as September.
Cooling inflation could bolster bets for a rate cut next month, but signs that U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs are fueling price increases could keep the Fed on hold for now.
Francesco Pesole, a currency strategist at ING, said it was worth noting that the threshold for a hawkish surprise was higher ahead of tomorrow's data release.
Pesole added that given the deteriorating labor market, the Fed still has room to cut interest rates if the core CPI rises 0.3% month-over-month. Economists polled by Reuters expect the core CPI to rise 0.3% in July, pushing the annual inflation rate to 3%. Money market traders see a roughly 90% chance of a rate cut next month, while the projected reduction by year-end is 58 basis points, meaning two quarter-point cuts each and about a one-in-three chance of a third.
Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices have agreed to pay the U.S. government 15% of revenue they receive to secure semiconductor export licenses, a U.S. official told Reuters on Sunday.
The Australian dollar was trading at $0.6515, down 0.2% in trading ahead of Tuesday's interest rate decision, with the Reserve Bank of Australia widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.60% after weaker-than-expected inflation in the second quarter and the unemployment rate hitting a 3-1/2-year high.
International News
Trump nominates E.J. Anthony as next BLS director
US President Trump announced his nomination of economist Dr. E.J. Antoni as the next Director of the Bureau of Labor Statistics in a post on the Truth Social platform on Monday. Trump said, "Our economy is booming, and Dr. Antoni will ensure the data published is truthful and accurate. I am confident that Dr. Antoni will do an excellent job in this new position. Congratulations, Anthony!" The Wall Street Journal recently reported that E.J. Antoni, as the Heritage Foundation's chief economist, has long questioned the agency's employment data methodology. The White House's consideration of a prominent critic suggests Trump plans major reforms to the agency.
Trump says meeting with Putin will be exploratory
US President Trump discussed his upcoming meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin at a White House press conference on August 11, calling it an "exploratory meeting" and stating that he believed the two sides "will have a constructive dialogue" and that he would "tell Putin to end the war." Trump also stated that he would speak with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, and that "the next meeting will be with Zelensky, or with both Putin and Zelensky simultaneously." He would also speak with European leaders after the meeting. (CCTV International News)
U.S. officials say Nvidia and AMD agreed to pay 15% of their revenue to the U.S. government in exchange for export licenses
On the 11th local time, the Financial Times revealed that in order to obtain chip export licenses, US chipmakers Nvidia and AMD reached a special agreement with the Trump administration. The two companies agreed to pay 15% of their chip revenue to the US government in exchange for export licenses for related products. The Financial Times reported that according to an unnamed US official, under the agreement, Nvidia will pay 15% of its H20 chip sales revenue, and AMD has agreed to pay the same percentage of its MI308 chip sales revenue. Sources familiar with the matter, including a US official, told the newspaper that the two companies agreed to this financial arrangement in order to obtain export licenses to China from the US government. Sources familiar with the matter said the Trump administration has not yet decided how to use the funds. The US Department of Commerce has reportedly begun issuing export licenses to the Chinese market to the companies. In response, Nvidia stated, "We abide by the rules set by the US government for our participation in the global marketplace and will continue to serve as many customers as possible within those rules." AMD has yet to respond. (CCTV News)
UBS cuts Brent crude outlook as supplies remain firm
UBS has turned cautious on the crude oil market, stating that prices should currently trade in the upper $60 to $70 range but gradually decline later this year. UBS now expects Brent crude to fall to $62 by the end of 2025 and March 2026, before recovering to $65 by mid-2026. The bank also narrowed the discount of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to Brent from $4 to $3. Strategist Giovanni Stonuno cited increased production in Brazil and Guyana, continued stable crude oil supply from Iran, Venezuela, and Russia, and weaker-than-expected demand from India as factors behind this forecast. UBS maintains a cautious short-term outlook but expects stabilization by mid-2026, with OPEC+ guidance and demand data as the next catalysts.
Trump declares public safety emergency in Washington, D.C.
On the 11th local time, US President Trump delivered a speech announcing that he would place the Washington, D.C., Police Department under direct federal jurisdiction and that he would begin deploying the National Guard that same day to help restore law, order, and public safety in Washington, D.C. He also declared a public safety emergency in Washington, D.C. Earlier on the 10th, Trump posted on his social media account that homeless people in Washington must "move out immediately," that the government would provide them with housing away from the nation's capital, and that criminals would be imprisoned. In response to US President Trump's threats to deport homeless people in Washington, D.C., and to "stop violent crime," the mayor of Washington, D.C., refuted his remarks on the 10th, emphasizing that local crime rates have dropped significantly and that there is currently no surge in crime. (CCTV News)
Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister: We can limit nuclear activities, but we will never stop uranium enrichment
Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Majid Takht-Ravanchi recently stated that Iran is ready to accept certain restrictions on its nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of economic sanctions, but will not completely stop its uranium enrichment activities, and there is absolutely no room for negotiation on this point. (Xinhua News Agency)
US media: US-Russia leaders may meet at Alyeska Resort in Alaska
According to the US website "Alaska Mines" on the 11th, US President Trump and Russian President Putin may meet at the Alyeska Resort in the resort town of Girdwood, Alaska. The website wrote on social media: "We have received news that the meeting between Trump and Putin may take place at the Alyeska Resort in Girdwood. Interestingly, the period from August 12th to 16th is completely blacked out on their booking calendar." The Russian news agency "Russia Today" forwarded the US "Alaska Mines" report, but the news has not yet been officially confirmed by the US and Russia. (Xinhua News Agency)
Domestic News
Liu Liehong, Director of the National Bureau of Statistics: Focus on key areas such as transportation and logistics, low-altitude economy, and medical health to encourage the integration and application of government data and social data
Liu Liehong, Secretary of the Party Leadership Group and Director of the National Data Administration, published a signed article in Outlook, stating that the "Regulations on Government Data Sharing" clarify the system, pathways, rules, safeguards, and legal responsibilities for government data sharing in a systematic regulatory format, providing a solid institutional guarantee for breaking down "data silos," unlocking data value, and enhancing government governance capabilities. The National Data Administration will seize the opportunity presented by the implementation of the "Regulations" to strengthen the implementation of the "1+3" policy for the development and utilization of public data resources and foster a collaborative effort. The administration will continue to promote the development of demonstration scenarios for public data "running," focusing on key areas such as transportation and logistics, satellite remote sensing, low-altitude economic development, meteorological services, and healthcare. The administration will encourage the integrated application of government and social data, strive to create a number of application scenarios accessible to businesses and the public, and better leverage the multiplier effect of data elements. Through the market-oriented allocation of data elements, new business forms and models will be fostered, injecting new momentum into economic and social development.
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