Gold prices rebound from session lows after mild U.S. consumer price index data
2025-08-12 22:32:55
Gold and silver prices dipped slightly in early U.S. trading on Tuesday (August 12), but recovered significantly from overnight lows as a U.S. inflation report was deemed unproblematic. Gold futures for December delivery (currently trading $50 above spot gold) were trading at $3,383.7 per ounce, down $21. Silver futures for September delivery were trading at $37.67 per ounce, down $0.102.
The just-released July US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed a 2.7% year-on-year increase, below expectations for a 2.8% increase. The core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose 3.1% year-on-year, beating expectations for a 3.0% increase and following a 2.9% year-on-year increase in June. Markets have been betting on a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on September 17th. Some even believe today's benign inflation data could give the Fed the green light for a 50 basis point rate cut in September. While today's CPI data was close to market expectations, it did not fully align with the dovish stance of US monetary policy. However, the stock market and financial markets appeared unconvinced by today's CPI data.
Asian and European stock markets were mixed overnight, while U.S. stock indexes were expected to open slightly higher when the New York trading day begins.
Gold prices fell slightly overnight after President Trump said on Monday that gold imports would not be affected by US tariffs. The Trump administration's decision on gold tariffs has disrupted the gold market over the past two trading days. The US imposition of tariffs on gold will have a significant impact on global gold flows.
Bloomberg reported that a 2025 HSBC survey showed that wealthy investors in Asia showed strong interest in gold, with Hong Kong investors more than doubling their allocation to the precious metal within a year. Bloomberg said that some billionaire families earn returns by lending physical gold to local jewelers, while others participate in profit-sharing projects or engage in arbitrage trading - buying gold bars at a discount in one market and selling them at a premium in another.
President Trump extended a 90-day pause in higher tariffs on Chinese goods until early November to stabilize trade relations between the world's two largest economies. Trump said he had signed an order extending the truce until November 10, delaying the tariff increase originally scheduled for today while leaving all other aspects of the agreement unchanged. The extension eased concerns about a resumption of the tariff war and gave the two countries more time to reach a deal.
President Trump downplayed expectations for his meeting with Russian leader Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Friday. Trump, who is seeking to end the war between Russia and Ukraine, said the meeting would be an "exploratory meeting" followed by consultations with Ukrainian and European leaders. "I'm going to tell him, 'You've got to end this war. You've got to end it,'" Trump said at a White House press conference on Monday. He added that "making a deal is not my thing." "I'm going to find out," Trump said. "I might say 'Good luck to you,' and that's it. I might also say, 'It can't be worked out.'"
Key external market developments today: The U.S. dollar index weakened, crude oil prices fell slightly, trading around $63.50 per barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is currently around 4.3%.
Other U.S. economic data due for release today include the Johnson Redbook retail sales report, the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) small business index, real income data and the U.S. monthly budget report.
(Comex Gold Daily Chart Source: Yihuitong)
From a technical perspective, December gold futures bulls have held a clear overall near-term technical advantage, but this advantage has weakened somewhat today. Bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above strong resistance at $3,500.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below strong technical support at the July low of $3,319.20. First resistance is seen at today's high of $3,408.70, followed by $3,450.00. First support is seen at $3,375.00, followed by $3,350.00.
September silver futures bulls have a clear overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above strong technical resistance at the July high of $39.91. Bears' next downside price objective is closing prices below strong support at the July low of $36.28. First resistance is seen at $38.00, followed by this week's high of $38.56. Next support is seen at the overnight low of $37.515, followed by $37.00.
At 22:26 Beijing time, spot gold was trading at $3,334.66 per ounce, down 0.24%. COMEX gold was trading at $3,384.1 per ounce, down 0.61%. Spot silver was trading at $37.636 per ounce, up 0.11%. COMEX silver was trading at $37.695 per ounce, down 0.24%.
The just-released July US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed a 2.7% year-on-year increase, below expectations for a 2.8% increase. The core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose 3.1% year-on-year, beating expectations for a 3.0% increase and following a 2.9% year-on-year increase in June. Markets have been betting on a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on September 17th. Some even believe today's benign inflation data could give the Fed the green light for a 50 basis point rate cut in September. While today's CPI data was close to market expectations, it did not fully align with the dovish stance of US monetary policy. However, the stock market and financial markets appeared unconvinced by today's CPI data.
Asian and European stock markets were mixed overnight, while U.S. stock indexes were expected to open slightly higher when the New York trading day begins.
Gold prices fell slightly overnight after President Trump said on Monday that gold imports would not be affected by US tariffs. The Trump administration's decision on gold tariffs has disrupted the gold market over the past two trading days. The US imposition of tariffs on gold will have a significant impact on global gold flows.
Bloomberg reported that a 2025 HSBC survey showed that wealthy investors in Asia showed strong interest in gold, with Hong Kong investors more than doubling their allocation to the precious metal within a year. Bloomberg said that some billionaire families earn returns by lending physical gold to local jewelers, while others participate in profit-sharing projects or engage in arbitrage trading - buying gold bars at a discount in one market and selling them at a premium in another.
President Trump extended a 90-day pause in higher tariffs on Chinese goods until early November to stabilize trade relations between the world's two largest economies. Trump said he had signed an order extending the truce until November 10, delaying the tariff increase originally scheduled for today while leaving all other aspects of the agreement unchanged. The extension eased concerns about a resumption of the tariff war and gave the two countries more time to reach a deal.
President Trump downplayed expectations for his meeting with Russian leader Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Friday. Trump, who is seeking to end the war between Russia and Ukraine, said the meeting would be an "exploratory meeting" followed by consultations with Ukrainian and European leaders. "I'm going to tell him, 'You've got to end this war. You've got to end it,'" Trump said at a White House press conference on Monday. He added that "making a deal is not my thing." "I'm going to find out," Trump said. "I might say 'Good luck to you,' and that's it. I might also say, 'It can't be worked out.'"
Key external market developments today: The U.S. dollar index weakened, crude oil prices fell slightly, trading around $63.50 per barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is currently around 4.3%.
Other U.S. economic data due for release today include the Johnson Redbook retail sales report, the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) small business index, real income data and the U.S. monthly budget report.
(Comex Gold Daily Chart Source: Yihuitong)
From a technical perspective, December gold futures bulls have held a clear overall near-term technical advantage, but this advantage has weakened somewhat today. Bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above strong resistance at $3,500.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below strong technical support at the July low of $3,319.20. First resistance is seen at today's high of $3,408.70, followed by $3,450.00. First support is seen at $3,375.00, followed by $3,350.00.
September silver futures bulls have a clear overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above strong technical resistance at the July high of $39.91. Bears' next downside price objective is closing prices below strong support at the July low of $36.28. First resistance is seen at $38.00, followed by this week's high of $38.56. Next support is seen at the overnight low of $37.515, followed by $37.00.
At 22:26 Beijing time, spot gold was trading at $3,334.66 per ounce, down 0.24%. COMEX gold was trading at $3,384.1 per ounce, down 0.61%. Spot silver was trading at $37.636 per ounce, up 0.11%. COMEX silver was trading at $37.695 per ounce, down 0.24%.
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