The unexpected growth of UK GDP in the second quarter supported the pound, and GBP/USD rose to around 1.3545, awaiting US retail sales data.
2025-08-15 13:12:49
In early European trading on Friday, the pound maintained its upward trend against the US dollar to around 1.3545, mainly driven by unexpectedly positive UK economic data and pressure on the US dollar.
Data from the UK National Statistics Office showed that the UK's GDP grew by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter of 2025, higher than the market expectation of 0.1%, although lower than the 0.7% in the first quarter. On a year-on-year basis, GDP grew by 1.2% in the second quarter, also higher than the market expectation of 1.0%.
The UK economy's better-than-expected performance provided direct support to the pound and boosted market confidence in the resilience of the UK economy.
Analysts pointed out that although the UK economy has slowed down in a high-interest rate environment, data showed that domestic demand and the service industry still have some support.
As for the US dollar, although recent soft US employment and CPI data have strengthened market expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates in September, the PPI released on Thursday was significantly higher than expected (3.3% year-on-year, higher than the previous value of 2.4% and the expected 2.5%), which slightly reduced the probability of a rate cut from 96% to 92%.
Market observers believe that although the PPI data has weakened some bets on interest rate cuts, the overall trend is still towards easing this year.
The next key data point of interest is the US retail sales report for July, due out on Friday evening. Market consensus is for a 0.5% monthly increase, and a higher-than-expected reading could boost the dollar and weigh on the British pound. A lower-than-expected reading could push the GBP/USD pair higher.
From a technical perspective, the daily chart shows that GBP/USD has broken through the short-term resistance level of 1.3520 and is testing the 1.3550 area. If the price can firmly stand above 1.3550, it is expected to further rise to 1.3585 or even 1.3620;
On the other hand, if it falls back below 1.3520, it may fall back to test the support of 1.3480. The MACD momentum histogram is gradually increasing, and the RSI is above 60, indicating that the bulls have the upper hand in the short term.
Editor's opinion:
The current strength of the British pound is largely due to unexpectedly positive UK economic data and expectations of a US interest rate cut, but the risk of a US dollar rebound remains. If US retail sales data exceeds expectations, the upside potential of the GBP/USD pair may be limited; conversely, weaker-than-expected data could push the exchange rate above the key resistance level of 1.3550, extending the bullish trend.
Data from the UK National Statistics Office showed that the UK's GDP grew by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter of 2025, higher than the market expectation of 0.1%, although lower than the 0.7% in the first quarter. On a year-on-year basis, GDP grew by 1.2% in the second quarter, also higher than the market expectation of 1.0%.
The UK economy's better-than-expected performance provided direct support to the pound and boosted market confidence in the resilience of the UK economy.
Analysts pointed out that although the UK economy has slowed down in a high-interest rate environment, data showed that domestic demand and the service industry still have some support.
As for the US dollar, although recent soft US employment and CPI data have strengthened market expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates in September, the PPI released on Thursday was significantly higher than expected (3.3% year-on-year, higher than the previous value of 2.4% and the expected 2.5%), which slightly reduced the probability of a rate cut from 96% to 92%.
Market observers believe that although the PPI data has weakened some bets on interest rate cuts, the overall trend is still towards easing this year.
The next key data point of interest is the US retail sales report for July, due out on Friday evening. Market consensus is for a 0.5% monthly increase, and a higher-than-expected reading could boost the dollar and weigh on the British pound. A lower-than-expected reading could push the GBP/USD pair higher.
From a technical perspective, the daily chart shows that GBP/USD has broken through the short-term resistance level of 1.3520 and is testing the 1.3550 area. If the price can firmly stand above 1.3550, it is expected to further rise to 1.3585 or even 1.3620;
On the other hand, if it falls back below 1.3520, it may fall back to test the support of 1.3480. The MACD momentum histogram is gradually increasing, and the RSI is above 60, indicating that the bulls have the upper hand in the short term.
Editor's opinion:
The current strength of the British pound is largely due to unexpectedly positive UK economic data and expectations of a US interest rate cut, but the risk of a US dollar rebound remains. If US retail sales data exceeds expectations, the upside potential of the GBP/USD pair may be limited; conversely, weaker-than-expected data could push the exchange rate above the key resistance level of 1.3550, extending the bullish trend.
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