The US dollar against the Swiss franc (USD/CHF) remained under pressure on Friday (August 15), fluctuating around 0.8050 during the European session. Although the unexpectedly high July Producer Price Index (PPI) in the US triggered a short-term strong dollar reaction, market expectations of a possible September interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve continued to weigh on the greenback. Nevertheless, the 39% export tariff pressure facing Switzerland remains a key concern, potentially limiting further gains for the Swiss franc.



US economic data has been volatile. While recent PPI figures have been higher than expected, the market has gradually come to accept the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate cut, leading to a weakening of the US dollar. Furthermore, Switzerland's high tariffs continue to limit the Swiss franc's appreciation, providing support for the USD/CHF exchange rate.

Technical aspects

The USD/CHF pair is showing some volatility, currently fluctuating between 0.8000 and 0.8100. Bollinger Bands indicate the price is approaching its lower band, with volatility decreasing. The MACD indicator shows a weak trend, with the DIFF line below the DEA line, signaling a bearish trend. The MACD histogram continues to shrink, suggesting continued downward pressure in the short term.



The RSI indicator is approaching oversold territory, currently at 44.7464. While not reaching an extreme low, it does indicate some selling pressure. USD/CHF currently has support near 0.8024, the lower Bollinger Band support level, while resistance lies at 0.8127. A break above 0.8127 could open the door to further gains towards 0.8170.

The current chart trend shows that the exchange rate has formed a consolidation pattern. The K-line arrangement is relatively chaotic, and the bearish momentum of the MACD indicator has not completely dissipated, indicating that the exchange rate may continue to be sluggish in the short term.

Market Sentiment Observation

Currently, the weakening US dollar is a key market driver. The Federal Reserve's dovish stance and improved global risk sentiment have led to a more cautious outlook on the dollar. Nevertheless, the Swiss franc continues to face pressure from export tariffs, particularly due to its reliance on the US market, which has weakened market sentiment.

Market Outlook

Bullish Outlook:
If the US dollar falls further, USD/CHF may test the support level of 0.8024. If this support level can be maintained, the exchange rate may rebound and challenge the resistance level of 0.8127, or even break higher.

Bearish Outlook:
If the Fed announces a rate cut in September, it may continue to suppress the US dollar, causing USD/CHF to fall further, especially if the support of the lower Bollinger Band fails to effectively hold. Technically, the current weak trend may continue to 0.8000 or even lower.

Short-term outlook:
In the short term, market sentiment and economic data will be key factors influencing the USD/CHF trend. Traders are focused on the upcoming release of US retail sales and consumer confidence data, which may provide clues to the subsequent performance of the exchange rate.