The Polish military command stated that during Russia's airstrikes in western Ukraine on September 10, 2025, several drones intruded into the airspace of Poland, a NATO member. The Polish military scrambled its own and NATO air defense systems to intercept and shoot down the targets. This was the first time Poland had directly shot down a drone on its territory since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

The incident triggered a surge in international oil prices, with U.S. crude oil prices rising continuously in the short term, with an increase of more than 1% in the Asia-Europe session on Wednesday (September 10). Market concerns about the security of Eastern European energy transportation channels have sharply increased.

Detailed incident and responses from all parties

Poland's military command reported that drones repeatedly violated Polish airspace during Russia's cross-border attacks on Ukraine. The defense minister stated that NATO had been informed of the situation. The command stated that radar tracked more than 10 objects, and those that could pose a threat had been "eliminated." Some drones that entered Polish airspace were shot down, and a search and location search for possible crash sites is ongoing.

Military operations are continuing, with the Podlaskie, Mazovia and Lublin Voivodeships listed as the areas most at risk.

The Polish military called the airspace violation an "act of aggression," and Defense Minister Kamis said Polish fighter jets "used weapons against hostile targets" and that they were in contact with NATO command.

Warsaw's largest airport, Chopin Airport, closed its airspace due to military operations. The US Federal Aviation Administration confirmed that a total of four Polish airports were temporarily closed, including Rzeszow-Yawinka Airport, a hub for transferring passengers and weapons to Ukraine.

US Senator Durbin pointed out that the repeated intrusions of Russian drones into NATO airspace showed that "Putin is testing his resolve to protect Poland and the Baltic states." Former US Army Europe Commander Ben Hodges believed that these intrusions were "a deliberate test of NATO and other countries' air defense warning systems."

EU trends

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will deliver her State of the Union address at 3:00 PM Beijing time on September 10th, outlining the EU's priorities for the coming year. The address is attracting significant attention not only because it will set the tone for the EU's strategic direction in three key areas: defense and security, support for Ukraine, and economic competitiveness, but also because von der Leyen faces widespread criticism over a controversial trade agreement recently reached between the EU and the United States.

As the re-elected president of the European Commission, von der Leyen is expected to emphasize the importance of strengthening Europe's collective defense capabilities amid the growing threat from Russia and propose specific measures to enhance the EU's economic competitiveness. She will also advocate for continued financial and military aid to Ukraine and push for further sanctions against Russia.

However, its political agenda is being overshadowed by the trade deal reached with US President Trump in July, under which the EU agreed to cut tariffs on US industrial goods, expand market access for US agricultural products, and accept a 15% US tariff on most EU goods imported into the US – a significant increase from previous tariffs in the low single digits or even zero levels.

The agreement was criticized by European politicians such as former French Prime Minister Bayrou as "surrendering to the United States", but some EU officials defended it, saying that the move avoided a more serious trade war, brought certainty to the market, and reflected the EU's unwillingness to escalate conflicts with the United States, which is crucial in the security field.

Alberto Alemanno, professor of EU law at HEC Paris, pointed out that von der Leyen is becoming a "scapegoat" for internal conflicts within the EU, highlighting the EU's collective action dilemma in dealing with the United States, handling the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and mediating the Ukrainian issue.

EU officials said the trade deal averted a trade war and brought certainty to European businesses, reflecting that EU leaders did not want to see tensions with the United States escalate, especially given Washington's key role in European security.

Event Summary and Market Impact

This border conflict marks a new phase in the risk of war spillover, triggering significant volatility in the energy market . Oil price volatility is expected to intensify in the short term. Whether the key resistance level of $66 per barrel (near the recent high) can be broken will depend on NATO's subsequent deployments, Russia's response, and the EU's decision on energy sanctions against Russia. Market concerns are that an escalation of the conflict could impact Black Sea shipping security and the stability of Eastern European energy corridors, further driving up the crude oil risk premium.

At 14:46 Beijing time, U.S. crude oil continued to trade at $63.21 per barrel.