Breakthrough warning! Euro fluctuates and awaits direction, ECB and CPI data will be released
2025-09-11 09:10:19
The euro failed to achieve a significant breakthrough at the start of this week, causing EUR/USD to continue to fluctuate below resistance at 1.1717/36. With the weekly chart structure intact, the market is eyeing the ECB's interest rate decision and US CPI data for potential catalysts for the next rally. Short-term Euro charts indicate a bull-bear standoff. EUR/USD traded in a volatile consolidation pattern during early Asian trading on Thursday (September 11).
Euro Technical Outlook: EUR/USD short-term trading levels
The euro briefly broke through resistance before its gains stalled – prices narrowed within a rising wedge pattern;
EUR/USD remains in its intra-week range – a breakout is imminent as the ECB rate decision and US CPI data are expected soon.
Resistance levels are 1.1717/36, 1.1787-1.1805 (key), and 1.1917; support levels are 1.1687, 1.1632, and 1.1573.
EUR/USD daily technical analysis
In last month's Euro Short-Term Technical Outlook, EUR/USD "has exhausted momentum and hit multi-week downtrend resistance, while the weekly range remains intact below – focus now on a breakout of the 1.1600-1.1726 range." From a trading perspective, as long as the pair fails to break through the day's high, the monthly uptrend remains fragile – for the rally to continue, declines must be contained above 1.1460, and ultimately a close above 1.1800 is needed to bolster momentum.
The euro fell sharply but managed to hold above 1.1600 by the close of August. Subsequent attempts to break above resistance failed, culminating in an outside daily reversal pattern on Wednesday. Ahead of the ECB's interest rate decision and CPI data, the outlook for a breakout remains uncertain. With the weekly range currently holding above the monthly opening support level, we are closely watching for a potential breakout before the close of this week.
(Euro/dollar daily chart, source: Yihuitong)
EUR/USD 4-hour technical analysis
A closer look at the Euro's price action reveals that EUR/USD is currently trading within a rising wedge pattern, with the rebound at the start of this week failing to break through the upper limit of the pattern.
Initial resistance is currently at 1.1717/36, defined by the weekly open, August's highest daily close (HDC), and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the July decline. Ultimately, a breakout/close above the critical resistance zone of 1.1787-1.1805, where the July open meets the 2025 high, is needed to initiate a new rally towards the 100% extension of the 2022 gains at 1.1917.
The monthly opening support currently forms a resonant support with the August trendline at 1.1687. A break below this trendline would suggest a significant short-term top has been formed or a larger correction is underway. Subsequent support lies at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the August rally at 1.1632 and the April high of 1.1573. To maintain the validity of the August rally, declines must be contained within the 61.8% retracement at 1.1540.
(EUR/USD 4-hour chart, source: Yihuitong)
Core Conclusion
EUR/USD is currently consolidating within its weekly opening range, trading just below resistance – the focus now is on the direction of a breakout. From a trading perspective, for the uptrend to continue, declines must be limited above August trendline support, and a close above 1.1805 is necessary to confirm the resumption of the broader uptrend.
Pay special attention to the upcoming ECB interest rate decision and the US Consumer Price Index. The market generally expects the ECB to maintain its interest rate at 2.15%, and the market is mainly focused on tomorrow's inflation data, as it will provide forward guidance for next week's Federal Reserve interest rate meeting.
At 9:09 Beijing time, EUR/USD was trading at 1.1696/97.
Euro Technical Outlook: EUR/USD short-term trading levels
The euro briefly broke through resistance before its gains stalled – prices narrowed within a rising wedge pattern;
EUR/USD remains in its intra-week range – a breakout is imminent as the ECB rate decision and US CPI data are expected soon.
Resistance levels are 1.1717/36, 1.1787-1.1805 (key), and 1.1917; support levels are 1.1687, 1.1632, and 1.1573.
EUR/USD daily technical analysis
In last month's Euro Short-Term Technical Outlook, EUR/USD "has exhausted momentum and hit multi-week downtrend resistance, while the weekly range remains intact below – focus now on a breakout of the 1.1600-1.1726 range." From a trading perspective, as long as the pair fails to break through the day's high, the monthly uptrend remains fragile – for the rally to continue, declines must be contained above 1.1460, and ultimately a close above 1.1800 is needed to bolster momentum.
The euro fell sharply but managed to hold above 1.1600 by the close of August. Subsequent attempts to break above resistance failed, culminating in an outside daily reversal pattern on Wednesday. Ahead of the ECB's interest rate decision and CPI data, the outlook for a breakout remains uncertain. With the weekly range currently holding above the monthly opening support level, we are closely watching for a potential breakout before the close of this week.
(Euro/dollar daily chart, source: Yihuitong)
EUR/USD 4-hour technical analysis
A closer look at the Euro's price action reveals that EUR/USD is currently trading within a rising wedge pattern, with the rebound at the start of this week failing to break through the upper limit of the pattern.
Initial resistance is currently at 1.1717/36, defined by the weekly open, August's highest daily close (HDC), and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the July decline. Ultimately, a breakout/close above the critical resistance zone of 1.1787-1.1805, where the July open meets the 2025 high, is needed to initiate a new rally towards the 100% extension of the 2022 gains at 1.1917.
The monthly opening support currently forms a resonant support with the August trendline at 1.1687. A break below this trendline would suggest a significant short-term top has been formed or a larger correction is underway. Subsequent support lies at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the August rally at 1.1632 and the April high of 1.1573. To maintain the validity of the August rally, declines must be contained within the 61.8% retracement at 1.1540.
(EUR/USD 4-hour chart, source: Yihuitong)
Core Conclusion
EUR/USD is currently consolidating within its weekly opening range, trading just below resistance – the focus now is on the direction of a breakout. From a trading perspective, for the uptrend to continue, declines must be limited above August trendline support, and a close above 1.1805 is necessary to confirm the resumption of the broader uptrend.
Pay special attention to the upcoming ECB interest rate decision and the US Consumer Price Index. The market generally expects the ECB to maintain its interest rate at 2.15%, and the market is mainly focused on tomorrow's inflation data, as it will provide forward guidance for next week's Federal Reserve interest rate meeting.
At 9:09 Beijing time, EUR/USD was trading at 1.1696/97.
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