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2025-09-12 19:13:01
[Russian Ruble Strengthens Significantly Due to Moderate Rate Cut] ⑴ The Russian ruble rebounded from a five-month low of 85 against the US dollar on Friday to above 82, largely due to the Russian Central Bank's more-hawkish stance than expected. ⑵ The central bank cut its benchmark interest rate by 100 basis points to 17%, less than the market's expected 200 basis points, despite having previously lowered its economic growth forecast. ⑶ Monetary policymakers emphasized the need for caution in the interest rate cut cycle, given the high inflation expectations and tight labor market. ⑷ The ruble has been supported this year by capital controls (requiring companies to sell 40% of their export earnings, with the actual implementation rate reaching 70%), but the exchange rate remains weaker than its peak of 76 this year.
