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2025-09-15 15:15:26
A-share margin financing as a percentage of market capitalization remains below its 2015 peak, suggesting overall risks are manageable. (1) Li Xunlei, Chief Economist of Zhongtai International, published an article on September 13th, sharing his views on the current A-share market. He noted that global stock markets have generally performed well this year. While Trump previously signaled tariff pressure, the actual implementation has been relatively mild, leading to a gradual buildup of confidence in global stock markets driven by expectations. (2) Domestically, my country's economic growth slightly exceeded market expectations in the first half of the year, and the A-share market has been experiencing a period of volatile growth since April. However, some in the market are concerned that the current A-share margin financing scale has exceeded its 2015 peak, potentially indicating overheating risks. (3) Li Xunlei noted that, based on core indicators, the current A-share margin financing as a percentage of market capitalization is 2.49%, significantly lower than the 2015 peak of 4.7%, indicating that current market leverage risks are manageable. It is worth noting that compared with 2015, the current regulatory authorities have more complete compliance supervision of margin trading and securities lending businesses, and have continued to strengthen the investigation of illegal leverage behaviors such as over-the-counter financing, further providing guarantees for the prevention and control of leverage risks.
