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2025-09-16 17:49:51
[Pound Climbs, Aiming for July High, Awaiting Fed Decision] ⑴ GBP/USD rose to 1.3643, just four pips away from its July 8 high, demonstrating strong upward momentum. Although Monday's high of 1.3621 has turned into support, market sentiment remains undeterred by potential resistance, with levels such as 1.3600 and 1.3583 likely providing further support. ⑵ An increase in the dollar supply is providing upward momentum for the pound, particularly ahead of the US Federal Reserve's two-day meeting. Such changes in the money supply often signal short-term exchange rate volatility and warrant close monitoring by traders. ⑶ The UK labor market is showing signs of slowing, with the latest four retail price indices showing that grocery inflation fell to 4.9% in the four weeks ending September 7. However, Wednesday's UK inflation data (expected to be 3.8% annualized) will be a key factor influencing the pound's trajectory. ⑷ British Prime Minister Starmer hopes to mitigate potential risks with a "Trump-style grand welcome." Although this political interaction does not directly affect the exchange rate, it may cause market concerns about the relationship between Britain and the United States and related policies at the macro level, thereby affecting investor sentiment.
