Live Updates > Live Update Details
2025-09-16 18:44:10
[Warning! Undercurrents in European and American bond yields; central bank policy direction is key] ⑴ The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to announce a 25 basis point rate cut this week. Investors are closely monitoring its communication strategy, the "dot plot" of interest rate projections, and the Fed Chair's comments on further easing conditions to gauge future policy direction. This could have profound implications for global bond markets. ⑵ Eurozone government bond yields rose slightly, with the German 10-year bond yield reaching 2.71%. Despite an unexpected rebound in Germany's September ZEW economist confidence index, investors remained on the sidelines ahead of the Fed meeting, demonstrating cautious trading sentiment. ⑶ The market is pricing in a 40% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the ECB before June 2026, with the deposit rate expected to fall to 1.95% by then. However, the German 2-year bond yield rose to 2.02%, demonstrating sensitivity to short-term interest rate policy changes. ⑷ French sovereign bonds are facing some pressure, with the 10-year bond yield rising to 3.52%, widening the yield spread over German bonds to 79 basis points. Against this background, the relevant policy trends of the French central bank and the Ministry of Finance deserve close attention.
