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2025-09-16 19:57:50
Market speculation intensifies ahead of the data deluge. ⑴ Market data showed little change in overnight swaps, with the yield curve showing signs of a slight steepening as traders took a wait-and-see approach ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. While some Treasury yields rose slightly, the 2-year bond performed relatively strongly, leading traders to take short positions in short-term swaps, betting on future monetary policy easing. ⑵ Despite a flurry of economic reports, overall market sentiment remained cautious. Yesterday's over $14.35 billion in corporate bond issuance has been priced in, and traders are preparing for the Fed's meeting. A 25 basis point rate cut from the Fed is widely expected, but investors will closely monitor the statement to gauge whether it will move toward a more accommodative policy. The newly added voting members of the Fed may also hold more aggressive views on rate cuts. ⑶ Market focus is also on the upcoming retail sales data, seen as a key indicator of consumer resilience amid market concerns over Trump's tariff rhetoric. Meanwhile, European stocks fell as banks and insurance stocks declined, while U.S. stock index futures rose slightly, indicating that investors are more inclined to bet that the Federal Reserve will enter a rate-cutting cycle at a time when the European Central Bank may end its easing cycle. ⑷ Asian stock markets had mixed performances, with the Nikkei index rising 0.3% to a record high, and technology stocks boosted by overnight gains in U.S. stocks. Chinese stocks fluctuated slightly as they weighed the progress of the trade war, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing up 0.4%, the CSI 300 Index down 0.2%, and the Hang Seng Index down 0.03%. ⑸ International crude oil prices rose slightly as traders weighed the risks of Russian oil supply, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, and expectations of a decline in U.S. crude oil inventories. The U.S. dollar index fell, hitting a two-month low, as the market generally expected the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.
