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2025-09-16 20:25:45
[Data Tide and the Fed Storm: Market Stuck and Awaiting Change] ⑴ Key economic data such as retail sales and import prices are about to be released. The market generally expects retail sales to grow by 0.2% month-over-month in August, slightly lower than the previous reading, indicating a modest recovery. Meanwhile, industrial output and capacity utilization are expected to decline slightly, suggesting a possible short-term adjustment in the manufacturing sector, adding uncertainty to the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. ⑵ The market generally expects the FOMC to announce a 25 basis point interest rate cut, but there is a slight disagreement on the possibility of a 50 basis point cut, indicating investors' cautious attitude towards the future path of monetary policy. Prior to this, the Bank of Canada has released its latest policy decision. Further attention will be paid to the Bank of England, Norges Bank, and Bank of Japan, with the probability of a Norges Bank rate cut attracting the most attention. ⑶ US stock futures were mixed after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices hit new highs, but the underlying yield on mortgage-backed securities (MBS) remained weak, indicating cautious market sentiment. Although there are reports that the US-China trade negotiations are progressing smoothly, investors are still digesting data and policy signals, and risk appetite is suppressed to a certain extent. ⑷ The 10-year US Treasury bond yield fluctuated around 4.039%, and the 2s10s curve steepened slightly, showing market concerns about interest rate risks. The US dollar index was under pressure to move downward, hitting a recent low, which may be related to market expectations of interest rate cuts. Crude oil prices rose slightly due to geopolitical factors. ⑸ The MBS market lagged behind the overall Treasury market, with the current yield of 30-year MBS at approximately 5.040%, showing certain signs of pressure. The upcoming 20-year Treasury bond auction, as well as the FOMC meeting statement and press conference, will be the focus of market attention and will further affect the direction of the bond and stock markets.
