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2025-09-16 20:52:50
[US 10-Year Treasury Yield Rebounds Slightly to 4.06%; Strong Data Challenges Expectations of Rate Cuts] ⑴ The 10-year US Treasury yield rebounded slightly to 4.06% on Tuesday, having briefly dipped below 4% on September 11th. The market is assessing the impact of the strong data on the Federal Reserve's policy decisions. ⑵ Retail sales grew 0.6% in August, while the control group index, which has a greater impact on GDP, surged 0.7%, marking four consecutive months of growth. ⑶ Data continues to show consumer resilience, alleviating concerns about an uncontrolled economic slowdown sparked by the previous pessimistic employment report. ⑷ Signs of a deteriorating labor market prompted the Federal Reserve to hint at resuming its interest rate cut cycle tomorrow, with an expected 25 basis point cut. ⑸ The Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) will reveal how the FOMC will balance the dual risks of stubborn inflation and rising unemployment. ⑹ In addition to the high inflation data, import prices unexpectedly rose in August, suggesting that tariffs may have a potential inflationary effect.
