U.S. crude oil broke through the 50-day moving average, with the upside target pointing to $66.03.
2025-09-17 00:18:20
WTI crude oil futures surged after breaking through the 200-day moving average at $63.32 (a key technical resistance level that has now turned into support) during U.S. trading on Tuesday (September 16). This move triggered a new round of buying, pushing prices above last week's high of $64.08.
Russia-Ukraine conflict weighs on geopolitical risks in fuel price forecasts
Further fueling bullish sentiment, escalating drone attacks against Russian oil infrastructure in Ukraine have sparked new supply concerns. Russian oil transport company Transneft has warned producers that they may need to cut production due to repeated attacks on key ports and refineries. Goldman Sachs data shows that the attacks crippled approximately 300,000 barrels per day of refining capacity between August and mid-September.
JPMorgan analysts noted that attacks on export terminals such as Primorsk indicate Ukraine's intention to restrict Russia's global crude oil exports, which could exacerbate volatility in the international oil market. While Asian buyers are still importing Russian crude, the risk of wider supply disruptions puts upward pressure on short-term oil price forecasts.
Markets focus on Fed rate cut, traders watch for demand signals
The market expects the Federal Reserve to announce an interest rate cut at its meeting on September 16-17. While loose monetary policy could boost energy demand by lowering borrowing costs, analysts remain cautious about the overall US economic outlook. However, any dovish signals from the Fed, especially if accompanied by signs of tightening supply, could be interpreted as a bullish catalyst for crude oil.
Inventory data may confirm tightening U.S. crude oil supply
The market also awaits official U.S. inventory data due on Wednesday. A Reuters poll shows that both crude oil and gasoline inventories are expected to have fallen last week, while distillate inventories may have risen slightly. If confirmed, the inventory decline would further tighten the supply landscape and provide support for current prices.
Market forecast: Upward target points to $66.03
(WTI crude oil daily chart source: Yihuitong)
Bullish momentum for WTI crude oil is growing. Supported by geopolitical supply risks, a potentially dovish Federal Reserve, and declining US inventory expectations, a clear break above $64.56 could accelerate prices to $66.03. The short-term outlook remains bullish, with the $64.25 to $64.56 range representing key resistance to watch.
Russia-Ukraine conflict weighs on geopolitical risks in fuel price forecasts
Further fueling bullish sentiment, escalating drone attacks against Russian oil infrastructure in Ukraine have sparked new supply concerns. Russian oil transport company Transneft has warned producers that they may need to cut production due to repeated attacks on key ports and refineries. Goldman Sachs data shows that the attacks crippled approximately 300,000 barrels per day of refining capacity between August and mid-September.
JPMorgan analysts noted that attacks on export terminals such as Primorsk indicate Ukraine's intention to restrict Russia's global crude oil exports, which could exacerbate volatility in the international oil market. While Asian buyers are still importing Russian crude, the risk of wider supply disruptions puts upward pressure on short-term oil price forecasts.
Markets focus on Fed rate cut, traders watch for demand signals
The market expects the Federal Reserve to announce an interest rate cut at its meeting on September 16-17. While loose monetary policy could boost energy demand by lowering borrowing costs, analysts remain cautious about the overall US economic outlook. However, any dovish signals from the Fed, especially if accompanied by signs of tightening supply, could be interpreted as a bullish catalyst for crude oil.
Inventory data may confirm tightening U.S. crude oil supply
The market also awaits official U.S. inventory data due on Wednesday. A Reuters poll shows that both crude oil and gasoline inventories are expected to have fallen last week, while distillate inventories may have risen slightly. If confirmed, the inventory decline would further tighten the supply landscape and provide support for current prices.
Market forecast: Upward target points to $66.03
(WTI crude oil daily chart source: Yihuitong)
Bullish momentum for WTI crude oil is growing. Supported by geopolitical supply risks, a potentially dovish Federal Reserve, and declining US inventory expectations, a clear break above $64.56 could accelerate prices to $66.03. The short-term outlook remains bullish, with the $64.25 to $64.56 range representing key resistance to watch.
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