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[Caixin Futures: Ferrous Metals Market Diverges, Pre-Holiday Inventory Replenishment Expectations Support Prices] ⑴ The weak performance of rebar is improving slightly as demand continues to unleash, while flat steel demand remains resilient. In the short term, steel prices remain strongly supported by improving macroeconomic expectations and pre-holiday inventory replenishment. ⑵ The pre-holiday market may fluctuate depending on the extent of inventory replenishment. The reference range for the rebar 01 contract is 3135-3192. In terms of funding, the top 20 positions are primarily bullish and bearish, with a slight increase in short positions. ⑶ Hot-rolled coil 01 contract open interest has remained stable, exhibiting an overall volatile pattern. ⑷ Brazilian shipments have returned to normal, global iron ore shipments remain high, hot metal production is also high, and port inventories remain slightly fluctuating. ⑸ The current situation of iron ore remains relatively stable, and pre-holiday inventory replenishment expectations still provide significant support. In the short term, we should pay attention to the production restrictions in Tangshan. In the medium term, we should focus on the realization of weak expectations amidst the decline in hot metal production. ⑹ The strategy recommends a 1-5 positive arbitrage for iron ore. 7. Coking coal production has contracted in some regions due to strict crackdowns on overproduction. Coking companies have begun restocking before the National Day holiday, increasing procurement activity among intermediaries. 8. The increase in mines offering price increases at auctions and improved contract signings at pithead mines have intensified the upward momentum in spot prices, maintaining a premium. 9. Funding: Long positions in the top 20 seats of the 2601 coking coal contract decreased slightly, while short positions increased slightly. Position changes are slightly bearish. The strategy recommends maintaining a light, short-term long position on pullbacks. 10. Coke demand remains strong due to high molten iron production. Furthermore, coking companies have already begun restocking raw materials before the holiday, strengthening cost support. 11. Further price increases and decreases in spot prices are becoming increasingly difficult, and market expectations for stabilization are increasing. However, market valuations are already high, so chasing the upward trend is not advisable. The strategy recommends long coal and short coke. ⑿ In terms of manganese silicon, the shipment of manganese ore remains stable, the production of manufacturers continues to recover, the factory inventory has increased slightly, and the expectation of declining demand still exists. The upward drive itself is insufficient, and it may follow the fluctuation of raw materials. In terms of funds, the top 20 positions mainly reduce their positions, and long positions reduce more. The overall trend is cautious, and low-level fluctuations are expected.