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2025-09-18 19:37:54
[The inflation curse has not been eliminated, and the Bank of England is in a policy dilemma] ⑴ The market previously bet that the probability of the Bank of England remaining on hold was as high as 98%, mainly because the progress of inflation decline was not enough to provide room for interest rate adjustments. ⑵ The increase in service prices is still far above the policy target of 2%, and commodity inflation rebounded to a level close to 3% last month, continuing to exceed expectations. ⑶ The Bank of England will closely monitor employment and growth data at this stage, worried that long-term high interest rates may stifle economic growth momentum. ⑷ Analysts pointed out that the current inflationary pressure has limited the central bank's decision-making space, and the policy balance is struggling to balance the dual goals of fighting inflation and maintaining growth.
