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2025-09-18 20:05:26
[Global Aluminum Market Supply Crisis! Prices Could Soar to $3,000] ⑴ The global aluminum market is shifting from a chronic oversupply to a severe shortage. Citigroup warns that the market is "sleepwalking into its largest deficit in 20 years," predicting that prices must rise from the current $2,700 per ton to over $3,000 and remain high to avoid global metal depletion. ⑵ LME inventory levels are concerning. Total inventories have hovered around 700,000 tons since May, a significant decrease from 1 million tons in the same period last year and 3 million tons four years ago, and exchange liquidity has declined significantly. ⑶ Russian aluminum flows have undergone a significant shift. Due to sanctions restricting its access to the LME system, a large amount of Rusal has shifted to Asian markets, further exacerbating tight exchange inventories. ⑷ Overseas aluminum production faces structural challenges. Despite adjustments to US tariff policies, high energy costs have caused operational difficulties for smelters worldwide. Thirty-two South African companies have warned of the possible closure of their Mozambique smelter. ⑸ Indonesia has become the only hope for new global supply, but Citigroup estimates that its annual production capacity will only reach 2.3 million tons by 2030, far below the planned target of 7 million tons, as new smelters face significant energy supply challenges. ⑹ The demand side continues to strengthen, with rapid growth in demand for aluminum from the new energy and electric vehicle industries, providing strong support for global consumption and exacerbating supply gap pressures. ⑺ The aluminum market may usher in a historic turning point. The crises of the past three decades were all caused by oversupply, while the next crisis will be an unprecedented supply shortage crisis.
