Live Updates > Live Update Details
2025-09-18 20:32:21
[Caixin Futures: Pre-holiday Strategy Overview for Energy and Chemical Products] (1) Crude Oil: Recent market trends are driven by geopolitical dynamics. Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil pipelines and refineries, and Trump's threats of new sanctions against Russia have complicated the situation in Russia, Europe, and the Middle East, leading to a persistent geopolitical premium. Combined with EIA data showing significant destocking of commercial crude oil, short-term market volatility is expected, with a focus on evolving geopolitical risks. (2) Fuel Oil: Affected by US sanctions on some terminal and storage operators, coupled with uncertainties in the Russia-Ukraine and Middle East situations, the price differential structure is relatively strong, and short-term volatility is expected to remain low. Overly bearish sentiment is advised. (3) Glass: Spot price is 1,166 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan month-on-month. Declining soda ash and coal costs and cooling commodity sentiment have put pressure on the market today, but the realization of peak season expectations and continued destocking are providing support. A buy on dips is recommended, with a target entry range of 1,200-1,210, primarily focused on rebounds. (4) Soda Ash: The market is weak and volatile, with prices moving downward and trading volume thin. Hebei's warehouse-to-export basis is reported at 01-110, while Shahe's is reported at 01-90. The sharp drop releases short-term risks. While the long-term outlook is weak, the strength of the downstream glass market and the stabilization of coal costs suggest continued destocking, necessitating a short-term bullish strategy. (5) Caustic soda: Shandong's liquid caustic soda is experiencing poor sales, increasing inventories, and local price reductions, with overall prices fluctuating at a low level. However, expectations of pre-National Day restocking persist, and downstream alumina production remains high, supporting an optimistic outlook and a moderately bullish strategy. (6) Methanol: Taicang spot prices are 2,250 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan month-on-month. Buying interest has weakened, and trading has turned subdued. High import supply and a slight increase in port inventories are suppressing the market. The market is shifting between high inventories and expectations of a peak season, maintaining a volatile and weak outlook.
