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2025-09-18 21:23:33
[The ANZ currency pair surged, warning of an overbought RSI and triggering a pullback] ⑴ The AUD/NZD exchange rate has broken through previous resistance, reaching a three-year high. The primary trigger was New Zealand's second-quarter GDP data, which unexpectedly contracted by 0.9%, significantly worse than the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) forecast of a 0.3% decline. ⑵ Following the data release, market expectations of a drastic 50 basis point rate cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand at its October meeting surged, with the probability soaring to 16%. This has put continued pressure on the New Zealand dollar ahead of the central bank's decision. ⑶ While technical momentum currently favors AUD bulls, the pair is significantly overbought, with its 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) above 78. ⑷ Historically, since 2010, the exchange rate experienced a technical pullback in all five instances where the RSI broke through 78, albeit within a limited sample size. ⑸ The current exchange rate may encounter short-term resistance near the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. The important support range below is at 1.1150/80, which was converted from the previous resistance level.
